Do you believe this market is random? | Page 26 | Forex Factory

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  • #501
  • May 25, 2014 4:16am May 25, 2014 4:16am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Apparently my buddy here is pointing out one of the screenshots i posted above was a demo and NOT solidly enough to proof my statements. Okay. Are you ready now? 2 Months worth of data, 321 won out of 330, 97% probability. {image} I guess it's my bad(?) i posted a demo to back up my point on this subject. You want a live, here is your live. This one goes to you, Simonb.
I never asked for proof, I was just commenting. Nice results, keep it up
like totally failure brah
  • #502
  • May 25, 2014 5:27am May 25, 2014 5:27am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Apparently my buddy here is pointing out one of the screenshots i posted above was a demo and NOT solidly enough to proof my statements. Okay. Are you ready now? 2 Months worth of data, 321 won out of 330, 97% probability. {image} I guess it's my bad(?) i posted a demo TRY to back up my point on this subject. You want a live, here is your live. This one goes to you, Simonb.
Can you please advertise your trading somewhere else, this thread is about discussion of market randomness, not your trading. Start a new thread where you can brag with your 2 months of trades.
  • #503
  • May 25, 2014 6:58am May 25, 2014 6:58am
Back on topic. I think the average retail trader holds on to the myth that the market is not random because they waste years of time playing around with indicators. They don't want to admit that they spent so much time going down a blind alley.

Every trader goes through the indicator phase. Some traders just cannot let go and start building inventory. Until they do that, there is going to be hot and cold streaks that they will have to endure. They would do better just going to Vegas, where at least there are pretty women and free alcohol.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #504
  • May 25, 2014 7:02am May 25, 2014 7:02am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Apparently my buddy here is pointing out one of the screenshots i posted above was a demo and NOT solidly enough to proof my statements. Okay. Are you ready now? 2 Months worth of data, 321 won out of 330, 97% probability. {image} I guess it's my bad(?) i posted a demo TRY to back up my point on this subject. You want a live, here is your live. This one goes to you, Simonb.
Wow Fx, 330 trades in 7 months!

Your broker is one happy puppy!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #505
  • May 25, 2014 7:02am May 25, 2014 7:02am
Quoting jmn5611
Back on topic. I think the average retail trader holds on to the myth that the market is not random because they waste years of time playing around with indicators. They don't want to admit that they spent so much time going down a blind alley. Every trader goes through the indicator phase. Some traders just cannot let go and start building inventory. Until they do that, there is going to be hot and cold streaks that they will have to endure. They would do better just going to Vegas, where at least there are pretty women and free alcohol.
I agree, but if you were profitable from day one you would never have the knowledge of what doesn't work or when it didn't work or why it didn't work. You can learn a lot from a blind ally. Learning how unprofitable traders trade is valuable knowledge. What better way to learn than to be one!
like totally failure brah
  • #506
  • May 25, 2014 7:20am May 25, 2014 7:20am
Quoting simonb
{quote} I agree, but if you were profitable from day one you would never have the knowledge of what doesn't work or when it didn't work or why it didn't work. You can learn a lot from a blind ally. Learning how unprofitable traders trade is valuable knowledge. What better way to learn than to be one!
Most retailers don't have the mentor/coach needed to be profitable from day one, so they will make the same mistakes. The human brain is wired to see patterns, we had to learn this to survive. Now, the modern caveman looks at a chart and see a pattern, lots of them. They then make the correlation vs. causation mistake and think doji's mean something. There have been many studies done on technical analysis, and none of them fare well over time. But TA is a fun hobby, and some people can make charts look really pretty.

If a trader ever moves on to the next level, they will look at price and fundamentals when making monetary decisions. Trying to predict immediate price movement outside of a raging trend will not produce consistent results. If one thinks about it, if price prediction were consistently possible, someone would corner the market soon enough.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #507
  • May 25, 2014 7:43am May 25, 2014 7:43am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Apparently my buddy here is pointing out one of the screenshots i posted above was a demo and NOT solidly enough to proof my statements. Okay. Are you ready now? 2 Months worth of data, 321 won out of 330, 97% probability. {image} I guess it's my bad(?) i posted a demo TRY to back up my point on this subject. You want a live, here is your live. This one goes to you, Simonb.
Great you were able to make a martingale survive two months! Congrat's but the record in FF in 7 years thus far.
What is this supposed to prove?
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #508
  • May 25, 2014 8:25am May 25, 2014 8:25am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} That is how I see it...except... The hedge is initiated when the first trade is negative, so by opening the hedge you are locking in the negative position, which is the same as just exiting the first trade with a loss. In this case, let's say you were down 30 pips when you put on the hedge. With the hedge, you commit margin capacity on two trades that are defensive in nature, neither trade capable of adding profits to your account as long as the hedge is on. Removing the hedge is dependent the traders ability to determine the reversal point,...
He said that I misunderstood, so he is doing something other than going long 1 contract and short 1 contract the same instrument. But I stand by the fact that long 1, short 1 of the same instrument is flat. It doesn't matter how or why you got there or when this or that was opened.
  • #509
  • May 25, 2014 9:28am May 25, 2014 9:28am
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} He said that I misunderstood, so he is doing something other than going long 1 contract and short 1 contract the same instrument. But I stand by the fact that long 1, short 1 of the same instrument is flat. It doesn't matter how or why you got there or when this or that was opened.
Yes I suppose that is true. And this discussion is off the thread's topic. Unless hedging is a response to the belief that the market is random. But it seems that hedging is a tactic used to mitigate the impact of random entry, which is an entirely different topic.
  • #510
  • May 25, 2014 9:38am May 25, 2014 9:38am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Great you were able to make a martingale survive two months! Congrat's but the record in FF in 7 years thus far. What is this supposed to prove?
Newer traders are always jumping up and down about their latest greatest system. You can tell a newbie by this alone. They have tripled their money in three months on 1000:1 leverage. They have not traded through their first market shock yet. They know nothing about unexpected NFP numbers, central bank interventions, or bubbles.

Personally I have fun watching them beat their chests online. I do look back after a market shock to see if they are still posting though
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #511
  • May 25, 2014 9:41am May 25, 2014 9:41am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Yes I suppose that is true. And this discussion is off the thread's topic. Unless hedging is a response to the belief that the market is random. But it seems that hedging is a tactic used to mitigate the impact of random entry, which is an entirely different topic.
Hedging is good if you can do it in the same account because it locks in losses and gains. Most hedgers are not long and short the same pair in the same amount at exactly the same time. That is where people get confused.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #512
  • May 25, 2014 11:45am May 25, 2014 11:45am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Hedging is good if you can do it in the same account because it locks in losses and gains. Most hedgers are not long and short the same pair in the same amount at exactly the same time. That is where people get confused.
Yes, hedging can involve taking positions with different amounts than the original trade (eg, the hedge position is 10% more than the first trade, etc), and you can hedge a trade with different pairs. My example was simplified to make the point that hedging is an inefficient use of resources. For example, you have $25,000 in your margin account, and open a trade where you will not risk more than 1% of your account. When you are down 25 pips, you put on your hedge (25 pips times $10 is $250, or 1%). At this point, your account is $25,000 - $250, or $24,750. However, since you are running two open trades, only (approximately) $18,750 is available to trade (the hedge ties up $3,000 per trade or $6,000 total). So the opportunity cost of hedging is what ever profit the two open trades could have brought you had you had that money available. If you find yourself with three or four hedging situations at one time, you have effectively taken yourself out of the market. All in hopes of a breakeven scenario. It does not matter if you are hedging with different pairs or whatever, the impact on your account, and your trading, is the same. BTW, I also understand the notion that you make up for the inefficient aspects of the hedge when you reverse the hedge position and effectively double you first trade with another trade in the direction of the first trade. You still have two positions feeding your margin account at the rate of one good trade. I know that some people trade this way and make money, and I appreciate that fact completely. I am just saying that there are trade offs with this approach.
  • #513
  • May 25, 2014 11:51am May 25, 2014 11:51am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote}If a trader ever moves on to the next level, they will look at price and fundamentals when making monetary decisions. Trying to predict immediate price movement outside of a raging trend will not produce consistent results. If one thinks about it, if price prediction were consistently possible, someone would corner the market soon enough.
And when you move beyond that level then you are just left with orders and nothing else. We trade on FF with different styles and level of experience, There is always someone who do things different, it isn't always a bad thing. Maybe his system is a martingale who knows, at this point that's an assumption, and he doesn't seem to use high leverage on his live account so that's another plus. So take it easy on the guy, you can learn something from anyone.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #514
  • May 25, 2014 12:00pm May 25, 2014 12:00pm
To get back on point it's actually simple when you know what to look for. When big money comes into the market it cannot hide it movements, traders are doing things backwards in my opinion, just because buying happen 5 minutes ago or even a minute it doesn't mean it is going to continue. When big orders hit the market I like to trade them when they are being filled or at least try too, and that keeps a lot of the guess work out. The answer to the market is not complicated at all, you just have to know what questions to ask.

Learning a style and reading a book is nothing more than reading someone else's interpretation of the market and nothing else, which may or may not be true it's up to you to decide how to filter thee information.But the market is the best teacher there is. Maybe i it might be random to most but it's not random to all, chart patterns are nothing more than past actions of price and are not a guarantee of future price behavior. There is only one rule that I have never seen the market broken, and that is the rule that the market follows the path of least resistance, and that means the biggest orders always win. Anything else is just playing second fiddle, but to each his own I guess.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #515
  • May 25, 2014 12:01pm May 25, 2014 12:01pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Yes, hedging can involve taking positions with different amounts than the original trade (eg, the hedge position is 10% more than the first trade, etc), and you can hedge a trade with different pairs. My example was simplified to make the point that hedging is an inefficient use of resources. For example, you have $25,000 in your margin account, and open a trade where you will not risk more than 1% of your account. When you are down 25 pips, you put on your hedge (25 pips times $10 is $250, or 1%). At this point, your account is $25,000...
Yes, you are right about that, there are trade off with regards to use of capital. What I do is pseudo hedge with E/U and U/C. It turns out that I am never just flat. I am always either net long or net short the dollar. I go long only, so I get swap for holding my positions. I trade this way because I see the market as random on the the short term. The market will carve out a trend for you over the year, however. If my negative position gets beyond a certain point I will trim trades until it gets back underneath my risk profile. In this way my risk is static, but my gains become exponential.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #516
  • May 25, 2014 12:11pm May 25, 2014 12:11pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} And when you move beyond that level then you are just left with orders and nothing else. We trade on FF with different styles and level of experience, There is always someone who do things different, it isn't always a bad thing. Maybe his system is a martingale who knows, at this point that's an assumption, and he doesn't seem to use high leverage on his live account so that's another plus. So take it easy on the guy, you can learn something from anyone.
I wasn't beating on anyone sane, I was just amused at the enthusiasm that fxsaywhat was showing about his "system". If there is something to learn, I am sure we will learn it soon.

Never can have enough lessons about Martingale.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #517
  • May 25, 2014 12:14pm May 25, 2014 12:14pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I wasn't beating on anyone sane, I was just amused at the enthusiasm that fxsaywhat was showing about his "system". If there is something to learn, I am sure we will learn it soon. Never can have enough lessons about Martingale.
Hahah. We are assuming it's a martingale. If it's a martingale then for sure the lesson will be learned it's just a matter of time. But I am giving the guy the benefit of the doubt and assuming he has put in real research into the market.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #518
  • May 25, 2014 12:21pm May 25, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Great you were able to make a martingale survive two months! Congrat's but the record in FF in 7 years thus far. What is this supposed to prove?
martingale? Is this the best you can come up with? I thought you know better than most the nubs here judging by your responds earlier. I also quote you and agreed with you.

I see how it is now.

The 3 charts above ONLY to proof that market is predictable using 330 live trade samples with 97% probability. Its powerful as it is, end of discussion.

PipMeUp, martingale with 97% over 330 trades? There is none on Internet. Trust me I looked and have been looking. Come on now.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #519
  • May 25, 2014 12:26pm May 25, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Yes, you are right about that, there are trade off with regards to use of capital. What I do is pseudo hedge with E/U and U/C. It turns out that I am never just flat. I am always either net long or net short the dollar. I go long only, so I get swap for holding my positions. I trade this way because I see the market as random on the the short term. The market will carve out a trend for you over the year, however. If my negative position gets beyond a certain point I will trim trades until it gets back underneath my risk profile. In this...
That sounds interesting. Best wishes and good trading...I hope everyone here gets every dime of bankers' money possible!
  • #520
  • May 25, 2014 12:32pm May 25, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting GEfx
if you can figure out the reversal points, why did you take trade one to begin with? .
Because i have a long target and a short target, and i know that both of them will be targeted and hit in some point in time, but i dont know when, it may take days, weeks, months ,years.

So instead of blindly guessing which way it will go, after i see where it goes, its easy to determine that after that spot will be hit, then the next target will be my other TP.

So far i had 67 trades and not a single loser yet

I wont put that TE public, but you get the idea.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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