Do you believe this market is random? | Page 24 | Forex Factory

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  • #461
  • May 24, 2014 2:19pm May 24, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Hedge the risk, so that it virtually becomes 0.Buy one currency sell he oposite, easy. {quote} Stoploss is the problem, if you hedge correctly you never get margin called.
What's the difference between your position being 0, and your position being closed?

To me what you have said is that when a trade goes badly, rather than use a pre-defined stop loss, you just exit manually. That's fine of course. I was wondering how you protect yourself if you lose internet connection, or your broker has problems for say an hour or two and price crashed in that time.


Also I don't understand what being margin called has to do with the stop loss.
  • #462
  • May 24, 2014 2:21pm May 24, 2014 2:21pm
If one can enter with full fire power at first stage then he need a stop loss which often hit, if one can enter with the reasonable size and sound MM there is no need of stop loss, this is my view, but every trader has his own way of trading and aim is the profit, if some one is in profit with stop loss it's good, and if some one have profit with out stop loss trading it is good too, just be profitable that is what is our aim..
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #463
  • May 24, 2014 2:30pm May 24, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} What's the difference between your position being 0, and your position being closed? To me what you have said is that when a trade goes badly, rather than use a pre-defined stop loss, you just exit manually. That's fine of course. I was wondering how you protect yourself if you lose internet connection, or your broker has problems for say an hour or two and price crashed in that time. Also I don't understand what being margin called has to do with the stop loss.
I`m not disclosing my full strategy, but basically i enter long and short on the same pair or across other pairs, depending on certain criteria.

And i dont put SL to any of them instead, so if price goes down, the short is in profit the long is not.And after the price starts to reverse, i close the short, and buy again at low, the price will reverse back, and close both long positions in profit.

3 wins , 100% winrate, yet one trade was in a big DD, but cumulatively my account equity never moved below -3 or -4%.

That is my main strategy, just ignore that in my trade explorer, thats a new experimental one, but the one i described is my main
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #464
  • May 24, 2014 2:34pm May 24, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} You're right, just changing the risk reward alone won't make you profitable. Be aware though that the people saying this may not realise they are wrong, so don't be too harsh. For example if you monte carlo simulate equity curves for a system with no edge (zero expectation), you'll find plenty of curves which end up profitable over many trades. If you only take one trade per week or month, it may be years before you realise you had no edge and it was just a random occurrence that you were ahead.

I am not trying be mean or convince traders who are already stuck in their ways. The things I have said are more so for the new people who are now starting out and don't know up from down. I have been trying to reverse engineer the market for the past 2 years and I am very close to accomplishing my goal, so to tell me that there is nothing to learn, when I have learned so much and I am still learning is nothing short of ridiculous. I have research almost every single aspect of the market that I could think of and ranked on a scale of what is important and let me tell you right now money management without skill is as dead as disco and that is not even the only thing traders believe that isn't true. I have seen great traders leave FF, because the voices around them that can't trade for shit, are the loudess and that is sad. I get a kick out of talking about a few things, but some day soon I will make my last post here also.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #465
  • Edited 2:55pm May 24, 2014 2:44pm | Edited 2:55pm
Since we are on the subject maybe we should classify some things that are random. I am going to classify one right now, I have called it the rouge wave (Lol play on words for ordeflow trading). You all know it, you've seen it I am talking about a trade that came out of nowhere and just take off 100 pips, now the interesting thing about this wave is that it had no notice, it didn't agree with no TA, the price just seem to just do whatever the hell it liked.

This is one of the things that I truly classify as random, it is most likely someone buying currency on the spot, maybe for business who want it now. And just exchanged 1 billion of whatever for whatever (could be more or less, I don't know the specifics only that it is more/less than the previous order). Though I trade these events they are harder for TA, and even more so for Fundy traders to grasp, and even if you grasp it, you have mere minutes to react. What other things do you guys classify as random? If any.

Edit: And no I am not talking about central bank news or anything like that, I am talking about something else. The traders who have had scratch their heads a few times would probably know what I am talking about.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #466
  • May 24, 2014 2:50pm May 24, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I`m not disclosing my full strategy, but basically i enter long and short on the same pair or across other pairs, depending on certain criteria. And i dont put SL to any of them instead, so if price goes down, the short is in profit the long is not.And after the price starts to reverse, i close the short, and buy again at low, the price will reverse back, and close both long positions in profit. 3 wins , 100% winrate, yet one trade was in a big DD, but cumulatively my account equity never moved below -3 or -4%. That is my main strategy,...
Long 1 EURUSD contract and short 1 EURUSD contract is flat.
  • #467
  • May 24, 2014 2:57pm May 24, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} Long 1 EURUSD contract and short 1 EURUSD contract is flat.
Lol what he is doing is an advance technique so it's tricky, the thing is even if price never comes back it doesn't matter to him, but when it does, he just close the hedge and wait for price to move back in his direction. It's something that can be done, but it's more tricky than a SL. Being flat is the point.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #468
  • May 24, 2014 3:00pm May 24, 2014 3:00pm
Quoting saneblane
{quote} I am not trying be mean or convince traders who are already stuck in their ways. The things I have said are more so for the new people who are now starting out and don't know up from down. I have been trying to reverse engineer the market for the past 2 years and I am very close to accomplishing my goal, so to tell me that there is nothing to learn, when I have learned so much and I am still learning is nothing short of ridiculous. I have research almost every single aspect of the market that I could think of and ranked on a scale of what...
Sounds like you have had a bad experience with some, although I hope not with me

I think many people fail, because it is very hard. And to make themselves feel better, it's more palatable to believe that it can't be done. I'm sure we both know many people who make excuses like that.

Quote
Since we are on the subject maybe we should classify some things that are random. I am going to classify one right now, I have called it the rouge wave (Lol play on words for ordeflow trading). You all know it, you've seen it I am talking about a trade that came out of nowhere and just take off 100 pips, now the interesting thing about this wave is that it had no notice, it didn't agree with no TA, the price just seem to just do whatever the hell it liked.

I take it that you're not referring to news events, just things that are completely unexpected. This sort of thing is one of the reasons why I don't always have a fixed profit target. I may think it can go 30 pips, but then it blasts through for a 100 pips. Sometimes you just get lucky simply by being in a position. We can all do with a bit of good luck every now and then . I can take 10 trades all meeting my entry criteria and manage each one as I should, but I won't know which out of the 10 is going to be the big winner.

If random is something that can't be said with certainty, then it has to be random. But as discussed before, it doesn't have to be 50-50 or unbeatable
  • #469
  • May 24, 2014 3:23pm May 24, 2014 3:23pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} Long 1 EURUSD contract and short 1 EURUSD contract is flat.
Read my post again you didnt understand it

Quoting saneblane
{quote} Lol what he is doing is an advance technique so it's tricky, the thing is even if price never comes back it doesn't matter to him, but when it does, he just close the hedge and wait for price to move back in his direction. It's something that can be done, but it's more tricky than a SL. Being flat is the point.
Yeah, except that price always come back, because of my analysis.This method alone would have 0 or worse expectancy if you would just put on trades randomly, but if i choose carefully the pairs, and the time and the correct target, its very easy.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #470
  • May 24, 2014 3:34pm May 24, 2014 3:34pm
Quoting bewayopa
{quote} Agree with you! GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT IS THE SECRET!!!!!

The best money management in the world will not help a mistaken strategy. You must have a way of behaving in the market that brings you a reasonable positive expectancy first. Then it will make all the difference.

A winning strategy can be ruined by a poor money management strategy.

But Now once you have a positive expectancy, good money strategy makes the difference.( this is nothing to do with stop loss and risk/reward calculations etc.).

A good money management strategy means not allowing yourself to lose all the money you have won so far on the next series of entries.
  • #471
  • May 24, 2014 3:40pm May 24, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} The best money management in the world will not help a mistaken strategy. You must have a way of behaving in the market that brings you a reasonable positive expectancy first. Then it will make all the difference. A winning strategy can be ruined by a poor money management strategy. But Now once you have a positive expectancy, good money strategy makes the difference.( this is nothing to do with stop loss and risk/reward calculations etc.). A good money management strategy means not allowing yourself to lose all the money you have won so...
Yeah in a nutshell, i like to call it risk management, because i think the risk is more important than the money that can be maid, its like the saying:

The bad trader looks at how much he can win.
The good trader looks at how much they can lose.
And the great trader looks at how much they can win and lose.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #472
  • May 24, 2014 3:54pm May 24, 2014 3:54pm
Quoting Proximus
Yeah, except that price always come back, because of my analysis.This method alone would have 0 or worse expectancy if you would just put on trades randomly, but if i choose carefully the pairs, and the time and the correct target, its very easy.

Good, I am following you man. I say things broad to explain sometimes, but you would know more about you're own system than all of us.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #473
  • May 24, 2014 5:29pm May 24, 2014 5:29pm
Market movements are pretty much like what Proximus is explaining....different threads of (complex) transactions between Brokers and Big Banks, on a 24 hour basis....they just shuffle "liquidity" between them, the goal is eventually to cash on retailers...and they do...they hardly ever loose provided they maintain their own balancing and market making.
Thereīs those big 10 Banks,some others, and the Federal Reseve on top...Bank of England, Goldmann...

The Fed is a private bank that lends money to the "economy", at a rate that they establish behind closed doors.
They own three key rights by law.
They can print money, they decide on the rates, and lastly and most importantly, they can lend huge ammounts of money they donīt posess, and charge interest for it..
It goes between them, the other big banks,, and the government....turns around and around...in the end, tax payers pay for the interest....forever....
Retail in Forex is similar, except you can decide when to go long, short, or stay out...taxpayer decides virtually nothing....only pays, pays and pays...

By the way, did you know the Fed "keeps", half of the German gold reserves....and chances are they will never be returned...all this stuff is easy to find in the web...just google, "german gold reserves", or fedreal reserve, everyone thinks they are a government institution...you can google their own homepage...even some Republican senators want to put an end to the Fed! Good luck!

What was this thread all about? Market being er...random????
Can you imagine the Big Boys risking billions, randomly???
  • #474
  • May 24, 2014 9:46pm May 24, 2014 9:46pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} Long 1 EURUSD contract and short 1 EURUSD contract is flat.
That is how I see it...except...

The hedge is initiated when the first trade is negative, so by opening the hedge you are locking in the negative position, which is the same as just exiting the first trade with a loss. In this case, let's say you were down 30 pips when you put on the hedge. With the hedge, you commit margin capacity on two trades that are defensive in nature, neither trade capable of adding profits to your account as long as the hedge is on. Removing the hedge is dependent the traders ability to determine the reversal point, which begs the question: if you can figure out the reversal points, why did you take trade one to begin with? Trade 2 made money, but trade 1 is deep under water. If you correctly determined the reversal point, trade 1 will begin correcting and you can now commit another trade in the direction of trade 1. If you guessed wrong about the reversal point, the first trade will continue moving negative, and if you added to that position, your second trade is running negative, too. While the market often reverses to return to the entry price of trade 1, on those occasions it does not (refer to my previous post with the aud/$ chart), well, you could be sitting on a negative position for a long time. So, the more times you misjudge the reversal point, the more of the margin account that needs to go defensive, and the less margin available for playing offense. And until you get the reversal point right, trade 1 and your margin account is still down 30 pips.

This isn't to say that hedging is a bad strategy or that it is wrong. I'm not sure it's that most efficient strategy in margin management. As for risk management, risk is better measured on the charts before opening the trade rather than measuring it in a margin account.
  • #475
  • May 25, 2014 12:10am May 25, 2014 12:10am
Quoting LizardGizzard
I definitely believe that trying to predict where price will go and when it will get there is silliness.
Why silly? of course you may able to predict where price would go with probabilities and experience . For example, the recent USDJPY 101.00 level, when Yellen sent no firework from last week's FOMC, you know the the 101.00 would hold which had been holding for 3 months. People who thinks market is NOT completely unpredictable would ALREADY profit from the 101.00 level and take the next flight off on their next dream vacation.

Any, I mean ANY winning system has target zone. Didn't that involve ANY sorta prediction?
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #476
  • May 25, 2014 12:26am May 25, 2014 12:26am
Quoting asyi
The currency market is highly predictable and follows an order that is found in nature and other major disciplines. By knowing this order you can predict a currencies price just as certain as you can predict what time the sun is coming up and going down. You can be 100% certain that the currency market will repeat itself in a systematic and predictable way every time it opens, during all four of the major markets. Market prices reveal structural design that in turn reflects a basic harmony found in nature. A good system will be based upon fixed...
Asyi, I agree with you on the most part, but not the "100% certain that the currency market will repeat itself in a systematic and predictable way every time it opens"

Beneath the price, it is the EMOTION that moves the market, prices is predictable if you be able to see through the market emotion; however, market emotion is NEVER consistent, therefore every trade is different but still somewhat predictable. Where the price ends will NOT 100% according to your prediction although it maybe as high as 99%.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #477
  • May 25, 2014 12:37am May 25, 2014 12:37am
Quoting Slim Buffett
Fine, let's go with that. I can predict with fair certainty that the sun will rise at 6am* tomorrow morning. Can you say with fair certainty where EUR/USD (or any currency pair) will be @ 6am tomorrow morning
It's a stupid comparison.

Does price action moves the way earth moves around the sun? Does potato grows on trees?

If you want to make a debate, would you please at least get the basic right?

Now answer my question first, What moves the market? what moves the price?
Is it Gravity?
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #478
  • May 25, 2014 12:52am May 25, 2014 12:52am
Quoting numbnuts
those patterns will be quickly cashed in on and smashed by big money traders until randomness returns.
Do big money traders DON'T trade on patterns or waves? What do they trade on? Crystal balls? DO THEY ALL PARTY EVERYDAY and trade base on their moods?

Up to April 2013, FX market moves average $5.3 trillion PER DAY. Let me ask you, which big money trader would be able to crash ANY pattern or wave? In such massive market, why would ANYONE trade against or even BE ABLE TO crash any pattern or wave? I bet you would and would only lead to you final destruction.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #479
  • May 25, 2014 12:55am May 25, 2014 12:55am
Quoting numbnuts
Most players (financial institutions and investors) in the currency market can't even spell forex.
This is amusing.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #480
  • May 25, 2014 1:04am May 25, 2014 1:04am
Quoting PipMeUp
What do you mean by random? Say you are watching by your window and you see a car stopping at the stop sign. Is it going to turn left or right? To the best of your knowlegde this is 50% likely for each of the two directions.
I must say the equiprobable 50/50 approach is interesting; however, that does not qualify for a winning and lasting system. After you calculate human error, news risk, and emotional risk into the system, market wouldn't kindly offer you the 50/50 anymore.

Now let me put a road block on its left turn and see if it's still 50/50.

If the system condition meets, your odds would be > 50% and that's where you gain your edge and probability comes into the play.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
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