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  • #421
  • May 23, 2014 9:25am May 23, 2014 9:25am
Quoting simonb
*Gay discussion Maybe study liquids and how price moves, then you won't be so gay in your discussions
Who?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #422
  • May 23, 2014 9:25am May 23, 2014 9:25am
Quoting simonb
*Gay discussion Maybe study liquids and how price moves, then you won't be so gay in your discussions
The subject might not be appealing to some it's true, but I guess it's like medicine, I have never taken medicine that tasted any good Lol. So it might be the same here, the topic might not be very "tasty" but some of it can make you a better trader.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #423
  • May 23, 2014 9:26am May 23, 2014 9:26am
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/832...thwerqer-bitch
  • #424
  • May 23, 2014 9:31am May 23, 2014 9:31am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} The subject might not be appealing to some it's true, but I guess it's like medicine, I have never taken medicine that tasted any good Lol. So it might be the same here, the topic might not be very "tasty" but some of it can make you a better trader.
Wtf
like totally failure brah
  • #425
  • May 23, 2014 9:33am May 23, 2014 9:33am
Quoting simonb
{quote} Wtf

Good grief take it easy man. I understand you might not like the topic but that's going a bit overboard.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #426
  • May 23, 2014 12:43pm May 23, 2014 12:43pm
I've read today elsewhere:


""""Why 90% of traders lose $?
From my experience in trading, the formula to LOSE $ in trading is to do as follows:

1. Priorities on entries into investments (when to get in)
2. Followed by finding a way to exit investments (when to get out)
3. Places least importance to money management (how much to bet)

What 10% of profitable traders do to make $?
And this is what profitable traders do to WIN $:

1. We focus primarily on money management (how much to bet)
2. We then focus our attention to exits (when to get out)
3. Lastly we focus on when to get into investments (when to get in)""""

THAT'S ALL! THE MARKET IS RANDOM OR NOT ?

NO MATTER !

  1. IF YOU HAVE A GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT !



Regards

  • #427
  • May 23, 2014 1:27pm May 23, 2014 1:27pm
Quoting mvp77
I've read today elsewhere: """"Why 90% of traders lose $? From my experience in trading, the formula to LOSE $ in trading is to do as follows: 1. Priorities on entries into investments (when to get in) 2. Followed by finding a way to exit investments (when to get out) 3. Places least importance to money management (how much to bet) What 10% of profitable traders do to make $? And this is what profitable traders do to WIN $: 1. We focus primarily on money management (how much to bet) 2. We then focus our attention to exits (when to get out) 3. Lastly...
Yup i also agree that its irrelevant whether or not its random, if you know how to trade it.I personally think that its not random, but if it were i could just as easily make money than now.I have a profitable strategy and i should not care about it, but anyways its good to debate it, but just for curiousity.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #428
  • May 23, 2014 1:59pm May 23, 2014 1:59pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Agreed, but not in all cases, you can see many cases where TP orders are set, yet the price moves through it, so if the TP is the sell side of the buy, if a big boy buys, he gets extra liquidity from those sell orders of other guys, and can pump the price further. Now he would not do hat if there were no other TP's higher, so its only logical to do that if there is another cluster of TP above the first cluster, so that he can exit the position too with enough liquidity.
That's a valid explanation. When I was reading Osler's paper I thought that if I had the money to push the market I would perhaps try to enter a swing just a few pips before the S/R the opposite traders are targetting. If I get a slippage their TP will push me back on track and if not but they see their target missed by a few pips they may close manually by fear and I get pushed as well. This makes all the thing even more like a chess game.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #429
  • May 23, 2014 2:22pm May 23, 2014 2:22pm
Quoting PipMeUp
I'm finishing reading Osler. It is indeed a very interesting reading. I should try reproducing her experiment if I get the time. I wonder if it still holds nowadays. I doubt because she writes that the majors in 2003 were not strongly correlated (?)
The thing with Osler paper is that what she's talking about is stop cascades, ie - placements of stops triggering cascades. And people (even the big players) will put their stops to psychological levels like above/below peaks, round numbers and so on.

This has always been quite interesting although it only shows oandas trades (ie. retail folk) - Thi sjust shows that retail people place their orders similarly to where other people put their penging orders - it's a quite interesting (but unfortunately very limited) historical picture how much they really affect the market.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/hi...al-open-orders
  • #430
  • May 23, 2014 2:29pm May 23, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting mikkom
{quote} The thing with Osler paper is that what she's talking about is stop cascades, ie - placements of stops triggering cascades. And people (even the big players) will put their stops to psychological levels like above/below peaks, round numbers and so on. This has always been quite interesting although it only shows oandas trades (ie. retail folk) - Thi sjust shows that retail people place their orders similarly to where other people put their penging orders - it's a quite interesting (but unfortunately very limited) historical picture how much...
That's an interesting read, it just shows that same information could be gotten in different ways in forex.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #431
  • Edited 7:24pm May 23, 2014 3:38pm | Edited 7:24pm
Quoting mvp77
I've read today elsewhere: """"Why 90% of traders lose $? From my experience in trading, the formula to LOSE $ in trading is to do as follows: 1. Priorities on entries into investments (when to get in) 2. Followed by finding a way to exit investments (when to get out) 3. Places least importance to money management (how much to bet) What 10% of profitable traders do to make $? And this is what profitable traders do to WIN $: 1. We focus primarily on money management (how much to bet) 2. We then focus our attention to exits (when to get out) 3. Lastly...
Sun Tzu said: "Invincibility lies in the defense; the possibility of victory in the attack."

Money Management is the defense, whereas Edge is the attack. MM determines the rate at which your equity will change. Edge determines whether the signal for that change in your equity is likely to be positive or negative.

If you have Edge, but no MM, you'll lose fast.
If you have MM, but no Edge, you'll lose slowly.
If you have both MM and Edge, you'll win slowly.*
*Note how there is no such thing as 'win fast.'
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #432
  • May 23, 2014 4:25pm May 23, 2014 4:25pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} More than 57%, but remember that not all bank cash is their proprietary account.Pension fund & hedgefund funds are also routed through banks, but the banks use them as leverage for their proprietary trading. And dont think of them as evil, because they are not, nor they are good, they just do their business as usual.Moratiliy in the market is irrelevant. And also not all banks are on the same side, the fact that if Citi buys , Goldman can still sell , sell to them as market maker, and Citi will be the proprietary trader.But both of them...

Proximius your analysys is probably more accurate than mine.

Actually , I read here from a whole bunch of people that are aware of the "underground forces" moving these markets.
That´s great, at least someone will have a chance in this.
A friend trading stocks, called me today, and told me he coluldn´t believe that with Apple he got stopped out 8 times lately, just to see the market run away without him!!!!! Familiar?

I don´t want to bloat, but I´m profitable...and I wish you guys even better results...the reality is that therés a huge massive amount of cash in the forex pot to be had....though it is fiercely guarded by a very, very professional strong hand...equipped with the best tools money can buy...
all the best
  • #433
  • May 23, 2014 4:43pm May 23, 2014 4:43pm
Quoting mikkom
{quote}And people (even the big players) will put their stops to psychological levels like above/below peaks, round numbers and so on.
No offense, but that right there is just BS.Big boys couldnt care less about 00 or 50 levels, or fibonacci numbers or MACD signals, they have level 3 access, they see all stoplosses, pending orders and real spread, they put their orders at liquidity clusters to get filled.A 50 milion order is harder to fill than a 100$ order.

They put the 50 milion in, in lets say 1 milion packets, thus creating an uptrend, the herd joins them, then he takes profit, causing the price to reverse, but because other guys joined the move, the price wont reverse to breakeven, but rather 2-5% above breakeven which is his profit off the move.Easy when you have enough $$ to control the price, harder when you speculate.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #434
  • May 23, 2014 5:05pm May 23, 2014 5:05pm
Quoting mvp77
I've read today elsewhere: """"Why 90% of traders lose $? From my experience in trading, the formula to LOSE $ in trading is to do as follows: 1. Priorities on entries into investments (when to get in) 2. Followed by finding a way to exit investments (when to get out) 3. Places least importance to money management (how much to bet) What 10% of profitable traders do to make $? And this is what profitable traders do to WIN $: 1. We focus primarily on money management (how much to bet) 2. We then focus our attention to exits (when to get out) 3. Lastly...
Agree with you!
GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT IS THE SECRET!!!!!
  • #435
  • May 23, 2014 5:14pm May 23, 2014 5:14pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} No offense, but that right there is just BS.Big boys couldnt care less about 00 or 50 levels, or fibonacci numbers or MACD signals, they have level 3 access, they see all stoplosses, pending orders and real spread, they put their orders at liquidity clusters to get filled.A 50 milion order is harder to fill than a 100$ order. They put the 50 milion in, in lets say 1 milion packets, thus creating an uptrend, the herd joins them, then he takes profit, causing the price to reverse, but because other guys joined the move, the price wont reverse...

Can't argue with that. They really don't care about much do they. They just want there orders filled and they will do whatever it takes to do it, even if that means plugging the market 100 pips before send it flying up 300 pips in the opposite direction. I never understand why people use those numbers really, fib and the likess, maybe just a way to try and understand what is going on i guess.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #436
  • May 23, 2014 5:15pm May 23, 2014 5:15pm
Quoting diceman555
I would like to have a poll on this topic but not sure how to do that. DO YOU BELIEVE THIS MARKET IS RANDOM , ????
If you want an answer to this you have to define what you mean by random. If you mean that at all times it is 50-50 to go up or down, then no it is not that type of random. We have proof it is not by the staggering returns of various traders that demonstrate money can be made. You need to prove it to yourself too.

If you mean that it is not completely predictable, then yes, it is random, because nobody can tell you exactly what price will do with certainty.

Consider the following. Suppose you are not an english speaker, you can't read english have never seen it before, and someone presents you with this thread. It all appears random to you, but your job is to read it one letter at a time and predict the next letter or word or even more if you can. Sometimes it's 3 letters, sometimes 8 letters in a word, there seems no pattern. Sometimes a short post, sometimes a long post. You notice that the symbol 'e' seems to be the most frequent, perhaps you notice it often comes after the letter 't' so you predict every time you see a 't', there will be an 'e' next. But this doesn't work. This is the equivalent of thinking you can go long at the top of a pinbar. It doesn't work. It's even the wrong way to go about it.

Market price movement is a language. If you want to predict what the next post will be, or even the next word or letter in this post, you could probably do it with reasonable success, but you'd need understanding of the language, and you'd need understanding of the context. Even when you have both, you still can't be perfect, but importantly, you can get the sentiment right and you can probably predict with some degree the next letter, word etc. All I need to see in post 431 above mine is "If you have MM, but no Edge" and I can predict that the next words will be something along the lines of that you will lose your account and I can already guess MM means money management from the context. I could even tell from the line above that it will probably be 'you'll lose slowly'. It's not impossible is it...yet it appears completely random to someone with no understanding. We do this all the time when communicating with others.

Understanding of language comes from trial and error and studying, and an appreciation of the basic rules of grammar. Understanding of language context tends to come from awareness of oneself and others and experience.

Now, I could predict that someone after me will think that what I said is nonsense, another will quote another post, another might be irritated and want me to explain how this helps us trade because it all just seems like abstract waffle, another will find my post too long and dozes off after a couple of sentences. I'm not in control of that or them, but I can guess the sentiment. If I see a few lines of a resulting post, I can probably predict even more without seeing the entire post, just as if I saw the letters 'resi***' I would guess the word is resistance rather than residue because we're on a trading forum. But if I then saw the next letter was a 'd', I would immediately know I was wrong and would have to adjust my predcition.

So to repeat, you can predict the overall, or longer term sentiment, and you can predict the next few letters or words on an ongoing basis, i.e. the next short term movement, both with reasonable success, never perfection, but you can't always know every swing or every sentence along the way in advance. That's all there is. If you want more, there isn't more. It's already enough. Find a guru maybe. I don't think they'll have more, but they might tell you they do.
  • #437
  • Edited 5:33pm May 23, 2014 5:17pm | Edited 5:33pm
Quoting bewayopa
{quote} Agree with you! GOOD MONEY MANAGEMENT IS THE SECRET!!!!!
I don't know about that man, there are traders finding out the hard way from years of doing MM, that they are just breaking even. This is my take on it, any strategy that can work on a small time frame, can also work on big time frames, so this is what some do, they ignore the small timeframes and go up to the big time frames, but guess what, you might still be a loser anyway, but it takes longer for you to know, however another trader could go on a smaller timeframe blow his account quit trading, go do something else and not waste his life trying to break even. I am not saying all is like that, but the truth is most traders do things without even realizing it. So you might say it's all MM but you might be good at picking spots and never gave yourself any credit for it.You want to show how great MM really is, flip a coin and take a trade then we'll see how far that gets you.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #438
  • Edited 5:36pm May 23, 2014 5:24pm | Edited 5:36pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} No offense, but that right there is just BS.Big boys couldnt care less about 00 or 50 levels, or fibonacci numbers or MACD signals, they have level 3 access, they see all stoplosses, pending orders and real spread, they put their orders at liquidity clusters to get filled.A 50 milion order is harder to fill than a 100$ order. They put the 50 milion in, in lets say 1 milion packets, thus creating an uptrend, the herd joins them, then he takes profit, causing the price to reverse, but because other guys joined the move, the price wont reverse...
That might be true in equities but not in fx (there is no book on fx) - also, with dark pools there is no real "level 3" in equities either anymore and even if there would be, hedge funds would not see it (there are rumours but that's it). Also, if you work in as high frequency as possible, it doesn't matter if you have level 2 or 3. Non-high frequency funds don't operate on this level anyway.

There are big players who will execute after certain rules. Stop cascades will trigger those rules after that their order filling algos will go to work and each of those will drive the market to some direction even more. Btw, In fx few mils won't move anything.
  • #439
  • May 23, 2014 7:03pm May 23, 2014 7:03pm
Quoting SupraSense
{quote} If you want an answer to this you have to define what you mean by random. If you mean that at all times it is 50-50 to go up or down, then no it is not that type of random. We have proof it is not by the staggering returns of various traders that demonstrate money can be made. You need to prove it to yourself too. If you mean that it is not completely predictable, then yes, it is random, because nobody can tell you exactly what price will do with certainty. Consider the following. Suppose you are not an english speaker, you can't read english...

YEP ,,,,, if you are able to read the market in such a way.the problem being ,understanding a chosen language is the result of many years schooling ,the meaning of a sentence can mean 2 very different things to different persons,depending on there knowledge and ones understanding of the person making the statement.

the simple true statement you made is only simple because you understand its complexity .
  • #440
  • May 23, 2014 7:22pm May 23, 2014 7:22pm
Quoting SupraSense
So to repeat, you can predict the overall, or longer term sentiment, and you can predict the next few letters or words on an ongoing basis, i.e. the next short term movement, both with reasonable success, never perfection, but you can't always know every swing or every sentence along the way in advance. That's all there is. If you want more, there isn't more. It's already enough.
Your post makes perfect sense. The analogy between acquisition of trading and language skills is spot on imo. Your conclusion (quoted) on this random/non-random topic, and my own are basically one and the same. The market sometimes behaves predictably (allowing for the possibility to use attack/Edge - i.e., trading, rather than say, gambling), AND this happens despite the fact that there is always a certain quality of randomness to it (which can be only be safely dealt with by having proper defense/MM ON at all times).
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
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