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  • #401
  • May 23, 2014 4:15am May 23, 2014 4:15am
Quoting Rap Skallion
That could be one of the reasons why price tends to go down more rapidly than when it climbs. Or haven't you noticed that.
Stocks indeed tend to fall faster than they raise. But the distributions of the returns in FX are very symmetric at any TF. But it explains why daily trend sometimes abruptly end with a huge 1h opposite bar: trend traders trail their SL.

Quoting Proximus
{quote} Of course, it is usualy business.Thats why i have a long on USD/JPY till 102, and a sell stop lower, just wait to see how the price will reverse after it hits 102 It will be a perfect hedge.
Why a hedge as opposed to a stop and reverse?
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #402
  • May 23, 2014 4:19am May 23, 2014 4:19am
Quoting Proximus
So this looks random to you PipMeUp?
Absolutely because despite you can explain (and even exploit) the phenomenon you can still not forecast it acurately in time, in price and in magnitude. You can't even know if it will happen this time or not if the price reaches the level X.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #403
  • May 23, 2014 5:49am May 23, 2014 5:49am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Absolutely because despite you can explain (and even exploit) the phenomenon you can still not forecast it acurately in time, in price and in magnitude. You can't even know if it will happen this time or not if the price reaches the level X.
I disagree, if the trend gets too steep the bubble will pop out, if a trend starts at 45 degree, after it gets very close to 90 degree it will pop out and collapse.
Its not that hard to foresee even with the naked eye, dont need to watch bloomberg tv all day to see that coming.

Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Why a hedge as opposed to a stop and reverse?
Because i have the opposite order already on EUR/USD
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #404
  • May 23, 2014 7:32am May 23, 2014 7:32am
You can't quantify "too steep" or WHEN the bubble will pop out. You can neither estimate how far the price will be pushed back.

And what can be a 45° angle in time by price coordinates?
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #405
  • May 23, 2014 7:44am May 23, 2014 7:44am
Only one could perfectly hedge 45° angle..
  • #406
  • May 23, 2014 8:01am May 23, 2014 8:01am
Quoting PipMeUp
You can't quantify "too steep" or WHEN the bubble will pop out. You can neither estimate how far the price will be pushed back. And what can be a 45° angle in time by price coordinates?
I have made this same mistake, talking about a 45 degree angle. ON what chart, and if you hit the minus button to compress time a couple of times, a lot of angles can get to be 45. The range changes automatically in mt4 unless you fix it. One has to decide on what constitutes a45deg on a chart with variable x an y parameters. 20 pips an hour? I suspect more like 30 pips an hour. The 45 degrees was cited by Gann way back when: it has a good use, but we have to agree on what it means, or we are talking different things.

When a guy watches a pair on the hourly time frame for a while, he can pretty much tell when the price is "really moving". But the guy on the daily time frame, may not yet discern a big change.

It boils down to "How many pips does price have to move and under what circumstances before you get the urge to do something?"

Before they came up with the E = RI formula for electric flow, they first had to decide what a Volt, an Ampere, and an Ohm was. (And Ohm''s father had to threaten to cut him off unless he got himself away from the billiard parlors).

I strongly suspect that if there was one place data covering all the stop orders, limiting orders, pending orders, etc. etc. existed and you had access to it you still would occasionally be caught wrong-footed.
  • #407
  • May 23, 2014 8:04am May 23, 2014 8:04am
Lol at above post
like totally failure brah
  • #408
  • May 23, 2014 8:19am May 23, 2014 8:19am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} I have made this same mistake, talking about a 45 degree angle. ON what chart, and if you hit the minus button to compress time a couple of times, a lot of angles can get to be 45. The range changes automatically in mt4 unless you fix it. One has to decide on what constitutes a45deg on a chart with variable x an y parameters. 20 pips an hour? I suspect more like 30 pips an hour. The 45 degrees was cited by Gann way back when: it has a good use, but we have to agree on what it means, or we are talking different things. When a guy watches...


Good post man really, but what I have noticed in FX is that you need to get into the move before it is obvious on a chart. A pair can be strong and just starting to move and yet it can be strong and winding down, or as they say finish making it's big move. The difference of weak and strong is a hard thing to spot unless it broke out of range then that would be the logical thing for price to do. But the strategy I came up with was for the very reasons you described and other things that are done on charts to give us misdirection. Since the orders come in from the lower timeframe by the time price is a 45 degree on higher time frames you have missed out on some easy pips, It's one of the very reason why I don't use a chart anymore.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #409
  • May 23, 2014 8:25am May 23, 2014 8:25am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} She means that the take profit is not coming from a rational decision based on economy facts like crisis, employment, interest rate, news or whatever. Objectively 1.3700 is nothing more special than 1.3697. The 00 level is choosen because it is expected to be used by the others as well and you want to take profit before the price retraces. You can call it self-fulfilling profecy or herd effect, fear of losing some of the floating profits or greed of getting the last penny. It isn't rational. The funniest is that if nobody took profit more...

I know what she is saying, but that is only assuming that we care about what we think the buying and selling is for I have said many times that I don't care where orders come from as long as they are the biggest and they move the market that is enough. These TP can send the market in a direction into a bunch of pending orders and have a huge effect on the market, I mean huge, sometimes it's a 1- 10 pip/point move to trigger these pending orders and send price flying in any direction. Some of the resistance lines on the charts and pullbacks in trends are caused by the big guys taking profits, and traders do look out for these and make money from them, without giving a second thought to why these "pullback" happen. So I do not believe that a TP comes from irrational thought at all. I guess it can depend on your style and what you trade on, so ama leave it at that.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #410
  • May 23, 2014 8:36am May 23, 2014 8:36am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I wish someone would bail me out if i get forced liquidation.I would martingale all day like a madman
Lol You're laughing but I wouldn't be surprised if they were involved in Martingale strategies too. These guys really are some special set of people.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #411
  • May 23, 2014 8:44am May 23, 2014 8:44am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Lol You're laughing but I wouldn't be surprised if they were involved in Martingale strategies too. These guys really are some special set of people.
They worked very hard to get where they did/are and the roles they play are extremely important. It's easy to be swayed by our own insecurities. But when you bite the hand that feeds you , it's often wise to expect a slap
like totally failure brah
  • #412
  • May 23, 2014 9:00am May 23, 2014 9:00am
Quoting Rap Skallion
I have made this same mistake, talking about a 45 degree angle. ON what chart, and if you hit the minus button to compress time a couple of times, a lot of angles can get to be 45. The range changes automatically in mt4 unless you fix it. One has to decide on what constitutes a45deg on a chart with variable x an y parameters. 20 pips an hour? I suspect more like 30 pips an hour. The 45 degrees was cited by Gann way back when: it has a good use, but we have to agree on what it means, or we are talking different things.
That's not a problem of definition. It is a problem of nonsense. "30 pips per hour" is a measure of velocity whereas "45° slope" is a measure of angle. That's the same nonsense as when traders talk about "momentum". Momentum is about inertia which requires a mass. There is no analog to the mass in the market. And NO the volume IS NOT a valid analog to the mass because it changes over time while the mass of an object is constant.

EDIT: and if there was momentum the price should run in straight line over the week-end since a body keeps its speed and direction unless some force applies to it.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #413
  • May 23, 2014 9:01am May 23, 2014 9:01am
Quoting saneblane
These TP can send the market in a direction into a bunch of pending orders and have a huge effect on the market
How could this be? The TP can only push the price backward from where it is coming from. Any order which used to be there has already been triggered.

Quote
Some of the resistance lines on the charts and pullbacks in trends are caused by the big guys taking profits, and traders do look out for these and make money from them, without giving a second thought to why these "pullback" happen. So I do not believe that a TP comes from irrational thought at all.
It is irrational because it is based on the expectation of an irrational decision to be taken! These big TP have no market/fundamental origin. The economy of the Europe isn't going to change because E/U touched a 00. Why taking profit? In your counter-trend example, the short trade isn't motivated by the presence of bears but by (the expectation) of a lack of bulls. That's not without a reason this is called "dumb money".
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #414
  • Edited 9:17am May 23, 2014 9:05am | Edited 9:17am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} How could this be? The TP can only push the price backward from where it is coming from. Any order which used to be there has already been triggered. {quote} It is irrational because it is based on the expectation of an irrational decision to be taken! These big TP have no market/fundamental origin. The economy of the Europe isn't going to change because E/U touched a 00. Why taking profit? In your counter-trend example, the short trade isn't motivated by the presence of bears but by (the expectation) of a lack of bulls. That's not without...
Ok I rest my case I am not going to start a debate about irrational, this "randomness" and "noise" are more than enough for me.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #415
  • May 23, 2014 9:07am May 23, 2014 9:07am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} How could this be? The TP can only push the price backward from where it is coming from. Any order which used to be there has already been triggered. {quote} It is irrational because it is based on the expectation of an irrational decision to be taken! These big TP have no market/fundamental origin. The economy of the Europe isn't going to change because E/U touched a 00. Why taking profit? In your counter-trend example, the short trade isn't motivated by the presence of bears but by (the expectation) of a lack of bulls. That's not without...
But that's just a trade, you have your fundamental BS he has his double 0'BS

sorry but your red flag doesn't make you righter
like totally failure brah
  • #416
  • May 23, 2014 9:09am May 23, 2014 9:09am
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Ok I rest my case we I am not going to start a debate about irrational, this "randomness" and "noise" are more than enough for me.
The market is about as random and rational as this thread
like totally failure brah
  • #417
  • May 23, 2014 9:12am May 23, 2014 9:12am
Quoting PipMeUp
You can't quantify "too steep" or WHEN the bubble will pop out. You can neither estimate how far the price will be pushed back. And what can be a 45° angle in time by price coordinates?
You have a point there, but atleast it would be a start, it tells you atleast to not buy when the price is too steep.Now that doesnt mean you should sell, because the price can still move 300-400 pips up, but if you buy, you have also the risk of the bubble to collapse and lose.

So i think that its dangerous to trade in any direction in a bubble.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #418
  • May 23, 2014 9:16am May 23, 2014 9:16am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} How could this be? The TP can only push the price backward from where it is coming from.
It really is something isn't it. if you look at it in a strict sense then you might come to that conclusion, but when the chart is at places like weekly highs and lows and bottoms, take profits are used like any tools to bounce price around to mislead. It doesn't matter if an order is there, you can put a pending order anywhere and banks do use TP to get into better positions, if you use a TP with a big enough position you are certain that price would react a certain way and the retailer would follow it like a dog chasing a ball, it's one of the way they wag the carrot in front our noses. Orders are not just placed, they are place ongoing so an institution just have to play the tune for the rats and they come running into his order that he placed after waiting for the result of his TP. I guess that's one example, I am sure banks use more tricks with TP.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #419
  • May 23, 2014 9:17am May 23, 2014 9:17am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} How could this be? The TP can only push the price backward from where it is coming from.
Agreed, but not in all cases, you can see many cases where TP orders are set, yet the price moves through it, so if the TP is the sell side of the buy, if a big boy buys, he gets extra liquidity from those sell orders of other guys, and can pump the price further.

Now he would not do hat if there were no other TP's higher, so its only logical to do that if there is another cluster of TP above the first cluster, so that he can exit the position too with enough liquidity.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #420
  • May 23, 2014 9:19am May 23, 2014 9:19am
*Gay discussion


Maybe study liquids and how price moves, then you won't be so gay in your discussions
like totally failure brah
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