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  • #13,701
  • May 22, 2014 2:30pm May 22, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Definitely agree... this thread used to be the best I've been short for the past week, but I covered yesterday and went long. It was clearly forming a base and with the DOW down over 100 points yesterday coupled with our inability to go lower, I knew something was up. I'm currently long at an average of 170.45 and planning on holding for now.
took a loss of 15 pips yesterday, currently long at 171.3880 - weekly wedge still looks good (of course only if it breaks to the upside)
  • #13,702
  • May 22, 2014 2:50pm May 22, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting Compulsive
{quote} took a loss of 15 pips yesterday, currently long at 171.3880 - weekly wedge still looks good (of course only if it breaks to the upside)
Yep, I'm still holding longs... although I did debate taking a little bit off awhile ago - I didn't.

I want to see her over 172 to get over that peak from last night to give me some more confidence. Otherwise, I may unload some and look to reload on a pull back.
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  • #13,703
  • Edited 7:04pm May 22, 2014 6:22pm | Edited 7:04pm
Well, the whole question about it being a bullish wedge or a triangle will probably be addressed soon.

At its high yesterday, it touched what could be interpreted as the underside of the previous rising wedge - so this could still be a simple retest of a breakout (line or area) which would take it back towards its bottom at 169.8, or much lower in the case of a triangle (168x~166x). Any move now under 171 ish opens the door back to the low side.

As best I can tell, a break and hold over 172 then 172.2~3 would have it not only back into the (assumed) wedge but maybe above it, suggesting that the move down to 169.8 was simply the correction it had to make. A move over those levels would possibly be the setup for a quite bullish event - although it would still have to get past 173.
  • #13,704
  • May 22, 2014 7:12pm May 22, 2014 7:12pm
Quoting Mpt
Well, the whole question about it being a bullish wedge or a triangle will probably be addressed soon. At its high yesterday, it touched what could be interpreted as the underside of the previous rising wedge - so this could still be a simple retest of a breakout (line or area) which would take it back towards its bottom at 169.8, or much lower in the case of a triangle (168x~166x). Any move now under 171 ish opens the door back to the low side. As best I can tell, a break and hold over 172 then 172.2~3 would have it not only back into the (assumed)...
Pretty much the levels I was looking at in this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post7484028
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  • #13,705
  • May 22, 2014 7:20pm May 22, 2014 7:20pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Pretty much the levels I was looking at in this post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post7484028
Yeah, the next 50 or so pips will tell whether it's up or down.
  • #13,706
  • May 22, 2014 8:07pm May 22, 2014 8:07pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Yeah, the next 50 or so pips will tell whether it's up or down.
My bets are placed ;-)
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  • #13,707
  • May 22, 2014 8:57pm May 22, 2014 8:57pm
H4 double pin bar.Possible to go back to 171.00 ?
  • #13,708
  • May 22, 2014 9:10pm May 22, 2014 9:10pm
Quoting BogiFX
H4 double pin bar.Possible to go back to 171.00 ?
Today is Day 100 of a major correction. Politely, I doubt that any 4hr chart will give you medium term direction.
  • #13,709
  • May 22, 2014 9:14pm May 22, 2014 9:14pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Today is Day 100 of a major correction. Politely, I doubt that any 4hr chart will give you medium term direction.
Them the best think is to stay out of this pair for me .
  • #13,710
  • May 22, 2014 9:16pm May 22, 2014 9:16pm
Quoting BogiFX
{quote} Them the best think is to stay out of this pair for me .
Maybe. I think the parameters outlined by Geppy and me are valid, so it's a matter of waiting.
  • #13,711
  • May 23, 2014 12:46am May 23, 2014 12:46am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ 12 pm 5 23 a.png Size: 70 KB


Based upon the triangle formed above on a 4 hour chart:
A break out occurs when we exit up through about 171.71 or so and will meet resistance at about 172.50
which has been a resistance line for about 4 weeks if not more, it could continue further.
A break down occurs below about 171.5 with support at about 171.23
then about 170.54 then about 170.41 then the bottom of the down trend line at about 169.50
What are the chances of the above happening ? 50/50 with no edge either way because of the
holiday.
I would venture to guess we go flat into the holiday by that I mean just following under
the upper black resistance line till after the holiday. I think this because we did have breakout
above the Bollinger bands at the triangle formation and the a nice fade with a weak recovery, no momentum.
I offer this as just reading what I see and for discussion.
  • #13,712
  • May 23, 2014 1:04am May 23, 2014 1:04am
Quoting EllisParrish
{image} Based upon the triangle formed above on a 4 hour chart: A break out occurs when we exit up through about 171.71 or so and will meet resistance at about 172.50 which has been a resistance line for about 4 weeks if not more, it could continue further. A break down occurs below about 171.5 with support at about 171.23 then about 170.54 then about 170.41 then the bottom of the down trend line at about 169.50 What are the chances of the above happening ? 50/50 with no edge either way because of the holiday. I would venture to guess we go flat...

is there any candles on that cluttered thing you call a chart ?
Trading is Easy.. Controlling your emotions is the hard part.
  • #13,713
  • May 23, 2014 1:23am May 23, 2014 1:23am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Today is Day 100 of a major correction. Politely, I doubt that any 4hr chart will give you medium term direction.
I disagree. Looking at 4H last 160 candles paints major H&S, brake down, retest to almost 61 fib and looking at EllisPerish triangle price already broke south. I have a feeling that red days are coming down.
  • #13,714
  • May 23, 2014 1:42am May 23, 2014 1:42am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ 140 am 5 23 a.png Size: 67 KB

Happier new member ?
  • #13,715
  • May 23, 2014 2:06am May 23, 2014 2:06am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} I disagree. Looking at 4H last 160 candles paints major H&S, brake down, retest to almost 61 fib and looking at EllisPerish triangle price already broke south. I have a feeling that red days are coming down.
At the moment, I use daily, weekly and monthly only. BTW, I think down. But it HAS been 100 days now. The daily suggests down to consolidate - the weekly is undetermined and the monthly needs to be under 170.1 ish to become bearish again.

If nothing happens, it may be a gap over resistance which is RIGHT next to us next week. If under 171 by close of business, then down is on the cards.

And the resistance is viewed in a circular (non linear) manner although next week there is new resistance which is also at 171.7
  • #13,716
  • May 23, 2014 2:28am May 23, 2014 2:28am
I look at Weekly, too. In one of the posts I suggested price will hit 20 ema on W, it did. I anticipated bounce, and it did. From my point of view if 171.86 holds we might see severe drop even till 167.5 area (not today), but brake above could mean continuation of Bull trend.
  • #13,717
  • May 23, 2014 2:37am May 23, 2014 2:37am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
I look at Weekly, too. In one of the posts I suggested price will hit 20 ema on W, it did. I anticipated bounce, and it did. From my point of view if 171.86 holds we might see severe drop even till 167.5 area (not today), but brake above could mean continuation of Bull trend.
How would 166.1 sound?
  • #13,718
  • May 23, 2014 2:40am May 23, 2014 2:40am
For the first time, we actually bounced off a fib level at 169.75 being the fib 38.2 of the move 173.4/163.8. Do we follow the fibs down? The first time in years? GJ used to love the 76. Might it be as simple as that?
  • #13,719
  • May 23, 2014 2:42am May 23, 2014 2:42am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} How would 166.1 sound?
Uf! That would be extremely bearish, like good bye up trend forever and would probably call for 164.
  • #13,720
  • May 23, 2014 2:50am May 23, 2014 2:50am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} Uf! That would be extremely bearish, like good bye up trend forever and would probably call for 164.
Yeah, but 166 is still in a bullish triangle. Only a drop out of 163 becomes bearish - but I would never rule out a retest of our old friends 133 and 128
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