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  • #3,701
  • May 21, 2014 8:57pm May 21, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Approx. Calculations: Break Even=33.87 (4.2% move from 32.50) Cost=$37 Max. Profit=$113 (if price closes @ 35) Max Loss=$37 without commissions (if options can be purchased for $37 which is approx. bid/ask)
Cheers. The break even is lower than I had guessed it might be. It would be interesting to compare that with the expected move (based on the pricing of the ATM straddle and nearest OTM strangle).
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,702
  • May 21, 2014 11:30pm May 21, 2014 11:30pm
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF - I'm inclined to agree with you that the language could be on the soft side and hence a potential rally higher. If this is the case then I'll look to sell CALLs around the 1910-20 area with 2-3 weeks out from expiration! I plan to make up a batch of popcorn, kick back on the sofa, and get myself ready to watch the Dudley/Yellen show
Time to sell some calls!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-...%20MarketPulse)
  • #3,703
  • May 22, 2014 1:15am May 22, 2014 1:15am
Quoting njr
{quote} Time to sell some calls! http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-...%20MarketPulse)
Wait for it. S&P 1,900 in the pipe. Gotta hit it. Then we book.

Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,704
  • May 22, 2014 1:39am May 22, 2014 1:39am
Why won't my borker let me do this ratio spread?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,705
  • May 22, 2014 8:24am May 22, 2014 8:24am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Wait for it. S&P 1,900 in the pipe. Gotta hit it. Then we book. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHHT7dTmw8U
Lol - nice one TF....
  • #3,706
  • May 22, 2014 12:37pm May 22, 2014 12:37pm
natgas storage build was up and UNG is dipping, supported at $24 last 3 months. I need a dip under $24 so I can sell Jun $22 puts or lower against my long Jul $20 puts....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,707
  • May 22, 2014 2:37pm May 22, 2014 2:37pm
HP reports Q2 adjusted EPS 88c, Bloomberg says
Consensus 88c. HP reports Q2 revenue $27.3B, according to Bloomberg, citing an early release of data on the company's website. Consensus $27.41B.


----ay caramba! That's one way to piss off Agarwal....HPQ dropped $1.50 30 minutes before the bell. I was just about to buy a put spread....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,708
  • May 22, 2014 2:38pm May 22, 2014 2:38pm
Hey TF - What's the view on that side of the pond of the SPX hitting 1900 again and staying above that level? It seems to creep closer most days but there appears to be strong resistance at the 1900 level. A quiet day for me today - I sold and bought back a few 1935 calls (6 June expiry) today but I'm caution to hold them longer given the market.

Did you place your HPQ position? Apparently their results were released earlier than planned and obviously prior to market close.......
  • #3,709
  • May 22, 2014 2:50pm May 22, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting njr
Hey TF - What's the view on that side of the pond of the SPX hitting 1900 again and staying above that level? It seems to creep closer most days but there appears to be strong resistance at the 1900 level. A quiet day for me today - I sold and bought back a few 1935 calls (6 June expiry) today but I'm caution to hold them longer given the market. Did you place your HPQ position? Apparently their results were released earlier than planned and obviously prior to market close.......
HPQ, shit. Sidewise market needs a break, up or down, giddyup, and wtf's up wit the bonds? That's what they be saying. No real catalyst for a break up or down, market flatlining (Clear!), ^VIX @ 11.80, heading for 5.0. I am gonna get a real job.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,710
  • May 22, 2014 3:01pm May 22, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} HPQ, shit. Sidewise market needs a break, up or down, giddyup, and wtf's up wit the bonds? That's what they be saying. No real catalyst for a break up or down, market flatlining (Clear!), ^VIX @ 11.80, heading for 5.0. I am gonna get a real job.
Hang in there TF and best of luck!
  • #3,711
  • May 22, 2014 11:32pm May 22, 2014 11:32pm
I never added the put side of my GLD IC. Call side is long 6/27 $130.5, short $ 6/21 $128. ($0.43/$0.69 - $0.25 net credit) Which is not great, since GLD is flatlining. I am right around BE on the spread, thinking about what to do....I fear an upside break....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,712
  • May 23, 2014 4:27pm May 23, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} FOMC in a hour or so and GLD is bang on $124.00, its due for a big breakout from this tight range we're in, it may be today or not but have to take a chance so I'm in a strangle on long call $24.50 and long put $125.50 for a net debit of 86c or $86 per strangle position SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) -NYSEArca 124.00 {image} 0.69(0.55%) 6:25PM GMT+01:00 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
flatlining gold making me money on GLD credit spreads. I'd rather see it move, though.

Needed to be nimble to trade well last week or so, and I have eked out only small gains. Here's to better times ahead. Have a nice long weekend all.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,713
  • Edited 9:58pm May 23, 2014 9:27pm | Edited 9:58pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} An OTM butterfly. Interesting. I have no knowledge of the stock, or the strikes, but given he said max profit at $35, I imagine his breakeven must be somewhere around 34.5 or more; that means you're looking at a jump of say $2/$32.50 or 6% to break even. Is that reasonable given the current environment? I guess we'll find out tomorrow. Interesting trade on the VIX. Wish I could just fast forward 6 months to see how it works out...and then come back 6 months. Having said that, you never know with these trades; could be a hedge, and at the...
So, Agarwal made some money after all, it appears. HPQ put on a good ride, though - glad I skipped it.

Do any of you trade the fly spreads actively? I am going to spend the long weekend boning up on them some more....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,714
  • May 24, 2014 12:43am May 24, 2014 12:43am
Inserted Video


so, bwb's beat butterflies. ok. Who can tell me what they mean by "IV rank"...?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,715
  • May 24, 2014 12:57am May 24, 2014 12:57am
Quoting The Fool
Who can tell me what they mean by "IV rank"...?
http://www.examiner.com/article/cons...ons-iv-ranking

o I c, thanks Fool....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,716
  • May 24, 2014 1:09am May 24, 2014 1:09am
Inserted Video


"a big wide bwb is {pretty much} an IC"
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,717
  • May 24, 2014 1:51am May 24, 2014 1:51am
just a few ER's on the radar for next week

5/27: QIHU; 5/28: TOL; 5/29: COST
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,718
  • May 24, 2014 2:49am May 24, 2014 2:49am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://www.examiner.com/article/cons...ons-iv-ranking o I c, thanks Fool....
Direct from their Options maths guru!!

https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/.../episodes/9966
  • #3,719
  • May 24, 2014 9:19am May 24, 2014 9:19am
Quoting njr
{quote} Direct from their Options maths guru!! https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/.../episodes/9966
thanks, bud.

That's a nice collection of vids there on options nuts & bolts. There's even one on GBM, damn.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,720
  • May 24, 2014 9:20am May 24, 2014 9:20am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} So, Agarwal made some money after all, it appears. HPQ put on a good ride, though - glad I skipped it. Do any of you trade the fly spreads actively? I am going to spend the long weekend boning up on them some more....
Did he make money? srt calculated the b/e as 33.87, HPQ closed 33.72, high of 34.09. I guess if he has a crystalball-o-matic he may have got that 34.09.

Seems to me this market is a ticking time bomb, whether it be days or weeks or months, at the very latest.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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