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Let's Trade Options

  • #3,681
  • May 20, 2014 3:56pm May 20, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} so I am spread on both TLT and TBT, bearish on TLT and bullish TBT, and that worked out well for me today, but I gave some back on SSO (the 2x bullish S&P etf) where I am imbalanced bearishly. Need to do something about that... Jul UNG long puts were whacked today, be interesting to see how the storage build numbers come in later this week.
today reverse of yesterday, UNG whacked again, and I made $100. More volatility to come in bonds and equities, I fear....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,682
  • May 20, 2014 11:42pm May 20, 2014 11:42pm
http://www.simpleroptions.com/public...0b8eaf4fd44f59

JC says 8-10 weeks of general downside ahead.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,683
  • May 21, 2014 8:21am May 21, 2014 8:21am
Quoting The Fool
So the fed heads yakking about "the taper" in 2013 will be yakking about the "rate hike" in 2014.
Raft of em up today, Dudley especially in just an hour from now, then the FOMC minutes, eyes on ^TNX & ^TYX....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,684
  • May 21, 2014 8:32am May 21, 2014 8:32am
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/vide...&cm_ite=NA&s=1

"...the technical trading in gold suggests a big move could happen before the slow summer months begin. "

Or, in other words, "nothing has been happening, so something has to happen."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,685
  • May 21, 2014 8:43am May 21, 2014 8:43am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I did the call side of the GLD IC shown above, for $0.26 net credit.
as GLD falls I am shopping the put side for Jun 27 long/Jun 21 short...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,686
  • May 21, 2014 8:48am May 21, 2014 8:48am
Quoting njr
{quote} lol - I agree that trend is your friend. For me the question is 'will the upward trend we've been in continue or is this the start of a new downward trend?' I've just sold a bunch of June 30 puts.... If the upward trend continues, I'll close my positions earlier for 50-75% profit. If this is a bigger downward trend, my positions are deep OTM so they should still be fine....
Strong market at the open so I've decided to close all my ES mini PUTs positions [50% profit on max profit] prior to the fed minutes later today!

If post FOMC / Ma Yellen's speech today there is another drop in the market, I'll look to sell some more ES mini PUTs!
  • #3,687
  • Edited 9:16am May 21, 2014 8:54am | Edited 9:16am
Quoting njr
{quote} If post FOMC / Ma Yellen's speech today there is another drop in the market, I'll look to sell some more ES mini PUTs!
Expect Dudley to stir things up, but I'd bet on rates-negative words...then FOMC could be the opposite. I'm just along for the ride....

http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents...dud140520.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,688
  • May 21, 2014 9:05am May 21, 2014 9:05am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Expect Dudley to stir things up, but I'd bet on rates-negative words...then FOMC could be the opposite. I'm just along for the ride....
Hey TF - I'm inclined to agree with you that the language could be on the soft side and hence a potential rally higher. If this is the case then I'll look to sell CALLs around the 1910-20 area with 2-3 weeks out from expiration!

I plan to make up a batch of popcorn, kick back on the sofa, and get myself ready to watch the Dudley/Yellen show
  • #3,689
  • May 21, 2014 9:30am May 21, 2014 9:30am
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video...o%7c&par=yahoo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,690
  • May 21, 2014 12:30pm May 21, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} as GLD falls I am shopping the put side for Jun 27 long/Jun 21 short...

FOMC in a hour or so and GLD is bang on $124.00, its due for a big breakout from this tight range we're in, it may be today or not but have to take a chance so I'm in a strangle on long call $24.50 and long put $125.50 for a net debit of 86c or $86 per strangle position

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
-NYSEArca
124.00 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 0.69(0.55%) 6:25PM GMT+01:00 - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #3,691
  • May 21, 2014 1:29pm May 21, 2014 1:29pm
pretty much how I am set up, but not seeing the stock break, waiting....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-...?siteid=yhoof2

" I do wonder if we may be in a period where long-duration Treasurys fall and stocks break, which in many ways leaves only short-duration Treasurys the place to be. "
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,692
  • May 21, 2014 1:41pm May 21, 2014 1:41pm
I bet this dude is smarter than me.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-t...tml?cmpid=yhoo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-05-21_hpqtoday.png Size: 612 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,693
  • May 21, 2014 1:53pm May 21, 2014 1:53pm
Agarwal's call fly:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-05-21_hpqcallfly.png Size: 94 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,694
  • May 21, 2014 2:40pm May 21, 2014 2:40pm
I like this thread and I'm gonna keep tabs on it but at the moment, I'm working on options education. Good job The Fool
  • #3,695
  • May 21, 2014 3:01pm May 21, 2014 3:01pm
Quoting nyb
I like this thread and I'm gonna keep tabs on it but at the moment, I'm working on options education. Good job The Fool
OK, nyb, you're welcome - don't be shy about showing some trades, even if they are paper trades.

I couldn't pull the trigger on HPQ....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,696
  • May 21, 2014 6:24pm May 21, 2014 6:24pm
Quoting The Fool
I bet this dude is smarter than me. http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-t...tml?cmpid=yhoo {image}
An OTM butterfly. Interesting. I have no knowledge of the stock, or the strikes, but given he said max profit at $35, I imagine his breakeven must be somewhere around 34.5 or more; that means you're looking at a jump of say $2/$32.50 or 6% to break even. Is that reasonable given the current environment? I guess we'll find out tomorrow.
Interesting trade on the VIX. Wish I could just fast forward 6 months to see how it works out...and then come back 6 months.
Having said that, you never know with these trades; could be a hedge, and at the end of the day, somebody else is on the other side of the trade.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,697
  • Edited 7:59pm May 21, 2014 6:56pm | Edited 7:59pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} An OTM butterfly. Interesting. I have no knowledge of the stock, or the strikes, but given he said max profit at $35, I imagine his breakeven must be somewhere around 34.5 or more; that means you're looking at a jump of say $2/$32.50 or 6% to break even. Is that reasonable given the current environment? I guess we'll find out tomorrow. Interesting trade on the VIX. Wish I could just fast forward 6 months to see how it works out...and then come back 6 months. Having said that, you never know with these trades; could be a hedge, and at the...
Approx. Calculations:
Break Even=33.87 (4.2% move from 32.50)
Cost=$37
Max. Profit=$113 (if price closes @ 35)
Max Loss=$37 without commissions (if options can be purchased for $37 which is approx. bid/ask)
  • #3,698
  • May 21, 2014 7:30pm May 21, 2014 7:30pm
Quoting srt
{quote} Approx. Calculations: Break Even=34.05 (4.77% move from 32.50) Cost=$55 Max. Profit=$95 (if price closes @ 35) Max Loss=$55 without commissions (if options can be purchased for $55 which is approx. bid/ask)
Thanks. I was looking for the ER today, but it is tomorrow, apparently. I am feeling a more bearish outlook for HP, if I have another chance to ruminate on it I may put something on b4 the ER tomorrow.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,699
  • May 21, 2014 7:38pm May 21, 2014 7:38pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} that means you're looking at a jump of say $2/$32.50 or 6% to break even. Is that reasonable given the current environment? I guess we'll find out tomorrow. Interesting trade on the VIX. Wish I could just fast forward 6 months to see how it works out...and then come back 6 months. Having said that, you never know with these trades; could be a hedge, and at the end of the day, somebody else is on the other side of the trade.
Sure, HPQ can move on ER's, just zoom out the chart and look at the last year or so. $1.50 move is well within reason, but it could miss that, too. Maybe CSCO points the way on HPQ? Given HP's more "retail" business model, though, I don't expect a big move up. But wtf do I know? Anyway you slice it you gotta cover both sides of your bum if you're gonna play these ER crapshoots.

re: VIX, whoever is selling VIX calls is on the right side of the trade, at least, imho...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,700
  • May 21, 2014 8:02pm May 21, 2014 8:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Thanks. I was looking for the ER today, but it is tomorrow, apparently. I am feeling a more bearish outlook for HP, if I have another chance to ruminate on it I may put something on b4 the ER tomorrow.
Sorry, I miscalculated as I forgot to sell 35C x2. Makes for a bit better R:R.
Corrected above.
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