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  • #77,521
  • May 21, 2014 11:25am May 21, 2014 11:25am
Quoting TheTopBloke
It looks to me like a lot of people are trying to predict the turning point, the very bottom, and going long in a short-term trend. Sell in May and go away is the norm for the day. It's not exactly risk-off, but it's take profit time in a big way. It also looks like when it turns around it's going to look like a huge fake-out. In order to predict the what the chart is going to look like, look into the future for what the news is going to be, and I don't mean the usual employment figures or interest rate announcements. But what quarterly or annual...
I would say this isnt picking a bottom? Lots of demand here, good support level. Tight stop and hard levels. Just because we have not had any confirmation yet doesnt mean trying to pick a bottom?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #77,522
  • May 21, 2014 11:31am May 21, 2014 11:31am
Quoting Zircon
{quote} I see . My advice is ask them when they post, (sometimes guys post only charts), if u get answer thats ok, if not . do not care about his call or his analyses and be aware that traders are not saying to the same thing same, some are scalpers get in and out in minutes or seconds, others holds for 2 or 5 days, others holds for weeks and months. every one has his target and his method you must know this also. 30 min chart need to confirm that support hold trade safe {image}
Armaros, I totally agree with Zircon.

Reading this thread should only give you a better view of the market but you should have your own convictions, own strategy. You don't follow somebody in here blindly then later blame them if the trade plan goes the other way. I have always been a scalper and it helped me gain some 400% roi (or even more) then I tried my hand with position trading as it seemed the "right way" to do it, I lost 3 big ones in a row (5k, 3.5k, 3k). There is no right or wrong way to do it, and I definitely DO NOT imply that scalping is the better way. You have to know what suits you best. There is just one thing that I'm sure everyone will agree with - loss is inevitable so don't be afraid to take the hit when you are wrong. You can always get it back on the next trades. He who fights and runs away lives to fight another day.

Good luck mate!
  • #77,523
  • May 21, 2014 11:53am May 21, 2014 11:53am
Quoting TheTopBloke
It looks to me like a lot of people are trying to predict the turning point, the very bottom, and going long in a short-term trend. Sell in May and go away is the norm for the day. It's not exactly risk-off, but it's take profit time in a big way. It also looks like when it turns around it's going to look like a huge fake-out. In order to predict the what the chart is going to look like, look into the future for what the news is going to be, and I don't mean the usual employment figures or interest rate announcements. But what quarterly...
Just for discussion's sake:

It looks to me like a lot of people are trying to predict the turning point - Is that not one of the things we are hunting for? That's why we have the different tools (candles, reversal patterns, etc), technical analysis and all. Look for that that very illusive turning point and when you catch it, next step is to determine how far it can go so you can ride it all the way.

In order to predict the what the chart is going to look like, look into the future for what the news is going to be - it's almost always a 50-50 chance that the actual figures are short of the expectations thus trend going the other way. Also, there are other unexpected things like the Ukraine drama that would have drastic effects on the trend.

I assume that you are more of a fundamentalist than a charter. I agree that fundamental analysis will give you the trend but technical analysis will show you the levels and that includes the bottom or the top, may it be a long term or a short term trend.

Green pips to all!
  • #77,524
  • May 21, 2014 11:55am May 21, 2014 11:55am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} I would say this isnt picking a bottom? Lots of demand here, good support level. Tight stop and hard levels. Just because we have not had any confirmation yet doesnt mean trying to pick a bottom?
  • #77,525
  • May 21, 2014 12:05pm May 21, 2014 12:05pm
My analysis at this moment is that we have an extreme bottom around the .184 area and an extreme top now up around .9514.

Given this, and understanding it's purely an analysis of numbers: you've got a 91% chance of long being the favored direction and about a 9% chance on short.

Which side of this would you prefer to be on?

All that being said, my opinion at this present time is that a bounce up to the 250s area is what it may take to actually see the 184 area..so...when we see the 250s, my personal plan involves being ready to add longs in that 180s range so that if we do get there this round, I'm set...

Of course with FOMC minutes coming on, it could be anyone's guess. Emotion could roll in and test 184 and who knows what after that.

With all that said, above and beyond any and all of our differences in technical analysis lies the most important two principles of all: MONEY MANAGEMENT and RISK management.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,526
  • May 21, 2014 12:28pm May 21, 2014 12:28pm
Still waiting limit buy at 9190
  • #77,527
  • May 21, 2014 1:19pm May 21, 2014 1:19pm
Looks like a good support has been encountered.
  • #77,528
  • May 21, 2014 1:28pm May 21, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} I would say this isnt picking a bottom? Lots of demand here, good support level. Tight stop and hard levels. Just because we have not had any confirmation yet doesnt mean trying to pick a bottom?
How are you determining those things, demand, support, tight stops?
  • #77,529
  • May 21, 2014 1:34pm May 21, 2014 1:34pm
Quoting makati
{quote} Just for discussion's sake: It looks to me like a lot of people are trying to predict the turning point - Is that not one of the things we are hunting for? That's why we have the different tools (candles, reversal patterns, etc), technical analysis and all. Look for that that very illusive turning point and when you catch it, next step is to determine how far it can go so you can ride it all the way. In order to predict the what the chart is going to look like, look into the future for what the news is going to be - it's almost always a...
To put it as simply as possible, long before I traded or transacted internationally, traders and brokers I knew personally, consistently said two things. First, I don't have a crystal ball. Second, you try staring at a computer all day with a bunch of indicators and technical nonsense and it's just going to drive you nuts.

I primarily focus on fundamentals. And if I look at a chart I look at trends and maybe envision some support/resistance lines. Beyond, that fibonacci and occasionally moving averages. Buts that it.

Major movements in anything on any chart generally coincide with fundamental changes. So looking into the future, we can only predict what's going to happen and try to remain as objective and honest with ourselves as we possibly can.

IMHO, anything else is mental masturbation.
  • #77,530
  • May 21, 2014 1:41pm May 21, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} How are you determining those things, demand, support, tight stops?
Simple charting, using a contrarian approach.
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #77,531
  • May 21, 2014 1:44pm May 21, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting TheTopBloke
{quote} To put it as simply as possible, long before I traded or transacted internationally, traders and brokers I knew personally, consistently said two things. First, I don't have a crystal ball. Second, you try staring at a computer all day with a bunch of indicators and technical nonsense and it's just going to drive you nuts. I primarily focus on fundamentals. And if I look at a chart I look at trends and maybe envision some support/resistance lines. Beyond, that fibonacci and occasionally moving averages. Buts that it. Major movements in anything...
Agree!

There is one part missing though which is sentiment!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #77,532
  • May 21, 2014 2:03pm May 21, 2014 2:03pm
Looks like the rebound may be on. 4hr rsi is threating to turn out of negative territory. If 92 holds, that would be great. Would set up a nice tradeable range between 92ish and 94ish for the summer.

Regards,
  • #77,533
  • May 21, 2014 2:09pm May 21, 2014 2:09pm
Quoting FX-Petra
Looks like the rebound may be on. 4hr rsi is threating to turn out of negative territory. If 92 holds, that would be great. Would set up a nice tradeable range between 92ish and 94ish for the summer. Regards,
This actually makes sense! AUD dont want to high price currency but investors will not let it get to low.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #77,534
  • May 21, 2014 4:04pm May 21, 2014 4:04pm
Short AU at 9350. Targeting <9300 levels. Stops fluid but hard stopped at .9380.

Caveat: Ive lost a bunch of money on AU/Kiwi longs early this week as I expected global low vols to be constructive of carry. The price action in JPY pairs, EM, and G10 carry (aka AU/Kiwi) have convinced me otherwise. Lets make some $$$s back.
  • #77,535
  • May 21, 2014 4:40pm May 21, 2014 4:40pm
Well looks like I caught the bottom didnt I?
.9300-.9320 next level need to watch for short
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #77,536
  • May 21, 2014 5:11pm May 21, 2014 5:11pm
Pro!
  • #77,537
  • May 21, 2014 6:04pm May 21, 2014 6:04pm
Good carry on this pair too if you are in the long and wrong group! Enough to buy my mcdonalds
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #77,538
  • May 21, 2014 6:41pm May 21, 2014 6:41pm
pending short at 0.9280, 0.9300
  • #77,539
  • May 21, 2014 7:18pm May 21, 2014 7:18pm
Quoting Rtm
Good carry on this pair too if you are in the long and wrong group! Enough to buy my mcdonalds {image}
If you are looking at carry trades, why don't you short GBPNZD? Swaps are better compared to AUDUSD.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #77,540
  • May 21, 2014 7:49pm May 21, 2014 7:49pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} If you are looking at carry trades, why don't you short GBPNZD? Swaps are better compared to AUDUSD.
I pay 8 pip spread!
All posts are my personal opinion
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