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  • #12,641
  • May 20, 2014 5:24pm May 20, 2014 5:24pm
Quoting Bernhard
I like to give some new idea to the system. You may know from options there is a technique if you expect volatility but you don't know the direction then you buy a put and a call together. So here we always buy? why not buy and sell in same time? We would win in both directions right? Well there is a small chance to loose both but I think its not very likely.

it's one the oldest ideas but unfortunately it will affect your RR ratio as you will always have one sure loss even during a win and a double loss during a whipsaw. an account with higher RR will always eventually overtake such an account if you do the math. It will also be a lot harder to change your stop losses to zero or manage it otherwise. also keep in mind you also pay double the spread for such an event reducing your RR even further.
  • #12,642
  • May 20, 2014 8:19pm May 20, 2014 8:19pm
Quoting nitecop
{quote} it's one the oldest ideas but unfortunately it will affect your RR ratio as you will always have one sure loss even during a win and a double loss during a whipsaw. an account with higher RR will always eventually overtake such an account if you do the math. It will also be a lot harder to change your stop losses to zero or manage it otherwise. also keep in mind you also pay double the spread for such an event reducing your RR even further.
This.

I would rather take a loss then enter in the right direction once the figures come out.
Enter Signature
  • #12,643
  • May 21, 2014 2:02am May 21, 2014 2:02am
I think what bothers most a lot of followers of this thread (well, okay, it bothers me...) is that whilst we always buy, we are not always sure which pair to buy...

Case in point:

Non farm payrolls are due out, do we buy EU, or do we buy UJ (I have seen this on this thread) ? And therein lies the rub. This method still requires some "thinking" and knowledge of sorts. Taking a long on both is also doable, but you are then left with either a guaranteed loss in one direction, + slippage, or two losses due to whipsaw, + slippage...

And that uncertainty is what is keeping me out of the market at the moment.

If I am understanding it incorrectly, please let me know...but that is how I see it.

Will this method really be successful in the long run if we take the stand, buy only, and only on pairs X, Y, Z depending on the currency affected by the news?

i.e. make a decision before hand

Direction: Always buy / long
Only currencies traded: EU for Euro & USD news, GU for GBP news, AU for Aus$ news and so on?

If the above is the case, why are we sometimes going opposite such as my example concerning EU UJ?

Not looking for a debate, just some trustworthy advice and opinions

Cheers

H
  • #12,644
  • May 21, 2014 3:48am May 21, 2014 3:48am
Definitely GU on GBP news.
2 stages rocket on buy today
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  • #12,645
  • May 21, 2014 4:02am May 21, 2014 4:02am
Didn't trade GBP retail sales... here is the effect
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Invest in alarm clocks
  • #12,646
  • May 21, 2014 5:01am May 21, 2014 5:01am
Heres an idea I've been contemplating I wouldn't mind receiving some feedback on:

I think to truly have the best trades with this system, you have to only trade the big whales, this is something Tony has said too in the past .. To me the big whales would strictly only be employment data, excluding US unemployment claims since they don't really mean much when it comes to volatility. Too many times now have I seen trades on little news that may be listed red but simply pale in comparison to these events. When it comes to employment data however, my observations have shown me this is where the market often positions itself for following moves in the duration of that month.

To me this would perhaps narrow the list down to only:

USD: Nonfarm Payrolls
AUD: Unemployment Rate / Employment Change
GBP: Unemployment Rate / Claimant Count Change
* Items listed with "/" mean these news are both released at the same time.

With 12 releases a year for each this would mean 36 whopper trades, while statistically speaking these events gives us much better odds at the 1:4 ratio we are after.
I.e: Risking 18 pips and winning 72 pips.
In other words simply, if this happened 9 times (25% acc.) out of the 36 we would be at BE and anything over would be extra account growth.
Now, on the basis we are trading with 50/50 odds we could say that odds are we won't be wrong 18 times in a row. (Still possible, but very unlikely)
Theoretically now, lets say we had an account with $1000 and we risked 5% a trade with a TP of 20%.
We would have to be wrong 20 times in a row out of 36 to be wiped out.
If we were successful at attaining a mere 50% accuracy hitrate however we would be looking at an account growth of 180%!! Anything over 50% strike rate and our accounts would be sitting at 200% increase minimum.

I think its really true what they say, less is more.

Thoughts people? I especially would love to hear what Tony has to say about this idea
  • #12,647
  • May 21, 2014 6:07am May 21, 2014 6:07am
Quoting SaiLyfee
Heres an idea I've been contemplating I wouldn't mind receiving some feedback on: I think to truly have the best trades with this system, you have to only trade the big whales, this is something Tony has said too in the past .. To me the big whales would strictly only be employment data, excluding US unemployment claims since they don't really mean much when it comes to volatility. Too many times now have I seen trades on little news that may be listed red but simply pale in comparison to these events. When it comes to employment data however, my...
Definitely agree here - less is more.

I take the same approach when I trade price action as well - I only take the absolute best setups available to me.
  • #12,648
  • May 21, 2014 6:09am May 21, 2014 6:09am
Quoting SaiLyfee
Thoughts people?
If you are only focusing on those releases, then you can straddle them in oanda. NFP is a sure win killer every time because it has 15 pip max spread and with straddle you win 99% of the time with a straddle. Lets say your straddle is 10 pips away from the price the moment the release comes out. Average move of NFP is roughly 70 pips (usdjpy). You loose 10 pips because of straddle and 7.5 pips because of spread (if you wait spread to calm down before taking profits). Basicly you lose 17.5 pips out of a 70 pip move but you win every time. To me this is much better deal than 50/50 chance to get te whole 70 pip move (or more).

The same strategy applies to AUD/GBP releases but there the spread is 20 pips and a big move isn't garanteed, but still much better to win almost always something than to lose 50% of the time.

Spread kills every other small news for straddle strategy but why tonys method works on those smaller releases is that you get in at the bottom and you wait for continuation of the move so TP is more than the initial spike. Also in my experience with NFP and other big releases if you straddle and move your stop to BE it won't be enough if you wait for more than the initial spike because of retracement. THIS is why tonys method works because you buy at the bottom and take profits beyond the initial spike. With straddle you have to take profits at the initial spike or moments after.

I prefer trading NFP with a straddle because it as so good win rate but I get less of the move because my stop would get hit if I leave it at BE. Both strategies has their strengths and weaknesess but if you are only sticking with those major releases, you might want to consider straddling them because the move is almost always bigger than spread + straddle distance and therefore you win almost every time.
  • #12,649
  • May 21, 2014 7:26am May 21, 2014 7:26am
These are all great ideas but the only solid data we have at this stage is Forex Loser's 4 months data and Tony himself who trades this constantly.
I'd rather stick with the solid data.... All the new ideas needs to be traded on real accounts and data need to be collected.
I've seen so many bright ideas which looked like a gold mine on the paper but in practice never materialize for one or other reason.
i must say Sailyfee's less is more approach might be promising.
Let's be honest, if it was that easy %95 of forex traders would be profitable but at the moment it's the opposite which also includes me.
B777
  • #12,650
  • May 21, 2014 7:35am May 21, 2014 7:35am
I have all my trades on video. I have about 350 recorded news trades (real money) so there's plenty of material to back my words. But remember these ideas are my own observations and works for me. Trust nobodys data and do your own analysis by back checking charts etc. Trading is a waiting game so it's worthwhile to spend some of your time doing analysis.
  • #12,651
  • May 21, 2014 7:48am May 21, 2014 7:48am
Quoting Electry
I have all my trades on video. I have about 350 recorded news trades (real money) so there's plenty of material to back my words. But remember these ideas are my own observations and works for me. Trust nobodys data and do your own analysis by back checking charts etc. Trading is a waiting game so it's worthwhile to spend some of your time doing analysis.
hey Electry i'm thinking of doing exactly this with the bigger news. Do you have a list of what you straddle besides nfp?
Enter Signature
  • #12,652
  • May 21, 2014 7:57am May 21, 2014 7:57am
Quoting cheekiboi
{quote} hey Electry i'm thinking of doing exactly this with the bigger news. Do you have a list of what you straddle besides nfp?
Basicly what SaiLyfee listed above so AUD employment and GBP claimant count change. Those are the good winners. Other news require something different if you are using oanda. I have straddled all the news with multiple ecn brokers and slippage is always the problem there + I don't feel comfortable trading NFP and other big news anywhere but oanda. Right now I don't have big enough account to split it to ecn broker and oanda so I'm choosing oanda at the moment because of another non news related strategy so I need 0 slippage.
  • #12,653
  • May 21, 2014 7:59am May 21, 2014 7:59am
Quoting Electry
I have all my trades on video. I have about 350 recorded news trades (real money) so there's plenty of material to back my words. But remember these ideas are my own observations and works for me. Trust nobodys data and do your own analysis by back checking charts etc. Trading is a waiting game so it's worthwhile to spend some of your time doing analysis.
Brilliant! That's years worth data! I wasn't that lucky. I think it was year 2007 I've stopped trading news. This thread got me back into it again.
All I got is posted here, maybe 6-7 trades, some of them only taken to see my entry strategy which I'm working on.
Would you consider sharing a couple of your trades on YouTube to see how it works ? I'd be very interested.
Last time I tried a straddle on NFP I got burned really bad. Must be my clumsiness.
B777
  • #12,654
  • May 21, 2014 8:17am May 21, 2014 8:17am
Quoting B777
{quote} Would you consider sharing a couple of your trades on YouTube to see how it works ?
Sure. I'll have to edit them to cover my account information etc. Maybe by the next NFP I'll post my NFP trades to youtube and share the links here. Though they are straddle trades and this thread is something different so don't want to compete with tony with his new videos. But they do have relevant information to this thread so I'll post them. I have about 10 NFP trades recorded in total.
  • #12,655
  • May 21, 2014 8:56am May 21, 2014 8:56am
Thanks Electry. That's brilliant. I think it would be great to see a good straddle in action live.
B777
  • #12,656
  • May 21, 2014 9:11am May 21, 2014 9:11am
Quoting Electry
{quote} If you are only focusing on those releases, then you can straddle them in oanda.

with straddle do you mean buy +sell with mt4 or is it options?
Scan all 28 Forex pairs with ONE chart... Currency Strength28 Indicators
  • #12,657
  • May 21, 2014 9:36am May 21, 2014 9:36am
Quoting Bernhard
{quote} with straddle do you mean buy +sell with mt4 or is it options?
Yeah buystop + sellstop and one will be triggered. I have coded my own EA for straddling but I have heard this one is good: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=6854
  • #12,658
  • May 21, 2014 12:23pm May 21, 2014 12:23pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
Heres an idea I've been contemplating I wouldn't mind receiving some feedback on: I think to truly have the best trades with this system, you have to only trade the big whales, this is something Tony has said too in the past .. To me the big whales would strictly only be employment data, excluding US unemployment claims since they don't really mean much when it comes to volatility. Too many times now have I seen trades on little news that may be listed red but simply pale in comparison to these events. When it comes to employment data however, my...
I have researched the AUD RBA Cash Rate announcement and it's quite good, too. Not sure what you use for your criteria, but I'll publish my findings in a day or so...
TULKAS
  • #12,659
  • May 21, 2014 4:46pm May 21, 2014 4:46pm
Thanks for the feedback guys, its something I definitely will be testing for myself in a demo account sometime soon. I think it might be best for me to wait till 2015 to do it live and trade it consistently for the whole year to get the most accurate results.

Electry I too would like to see some videos posted of your NFP straddling.
I thought o***a prevented hedging / taking positions on the same pair going against each other? This has been my experience.
  • #12,660
  • May 21, 2014 7:18pm May 21, 2014 7:18pm
hello guys
dont forget the CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI !!
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