Do you believe this market is random? | Page 15 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Is random really random? 231 replies

Market Random and Predictable Parts 26 replies

Pro Traders in a Random Market 60 replies

Is the market random or not ? 210 replies

Random Market vs Set Expectancy 8 replies

Attachments: Do you believe this market is random?
Exit Attachments

Do you believe this market is random?

  • #281
  • May 20, 2014 3:44pm May 20, 2014 3:44pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} That's why I can't understand when people say market is nothing random. If it isn't random they should be able to tell me where E/U will be 1st of June 9:17:43am GMT.
Hahah I don't think you will ever get that specific out of the market, and I think it would be greedy to be that specific. You don't need it to be that specific to make money either (I like to think of it in points). The most you can hope for is to weigh the knowns and the unknowns, on a scale and weigh them to see which one has a better outcome. For example If I see a certain amount of orders hit the market, I would calculate it like this, that action has about an 90 percent chance of giving me 10 pips, an 80 percent chance of giving me 15 pips a 75 percent chance of giving me 20 pips and so on and so forth. After all my research I am still estimating expected movements. Mind you my research is not done, and I hope to get some better tools soon to keep researching the causes and effects in the market. But specifics like what you want won't happen Lol sorry.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #282
  • May 20, 2014 3:50pm May 20, 2014 3:50pm
We had a bearish day in the leading Market Indexes. Fed's Yellen speaks tomorrow at 16:00 GMT+1.
Tomorrow the market might recover responding to the speech.

Happy trading.
.............................................
http://silvatradingen.wordpress.com/
"It is not enough to have a good mind. The main thing is to use it well." (Rene Descartes)
  • #283
  • May 20, 2014 5:01pm May 20, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting diceman555
I would like to have a poll on this topic but not sure how to do that. DO YOU BELIEVE THIS MARKET IS RANDOM , ????

"Trader who have learned to think in probabilities approach the markets from virtually the same perspective. At the micro level, they believe that each trade or edge is unique. What they understand about the nature of trading is that at any given moment, the market may look exactly the same on the chart as it did at some previous moment; and the geometric measurements and mathematical calculations used to determine each edge can be exactly the same from one edge to then ext; but the actual consistency of the market itself from one moment to the next is never the same."

What do u think that? Answer to your questions is YES and NO depends on how do you view the market.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #284
  • May 20, 2014 5:03pm May 20, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Ah I understand. Sorry I thought you were indeed refering to pure TA: price can only go up 'coz it broke a trendline kind of stuff. The experiment is irrelevant to you. Fundamentals play a major role in your decision process. Fundamentals are something I never focused too much on because I can't quantify them. I always considered that if they are sudden and short lived like NFP they tend to go opposite as big boys were already in position (price goes down because the buyers have already bought). After the 1st move the direction is given...
Well, I don't view fundamentals quite that way. There is a difference between a FA, and the fundamental change in structure based on fundamentals. Also, research based on equity markets is difficult to apply to the forex, which is an entirely different animal. Finally, I can't predict the price of anything a month from now, but I can tell you that the best trades will be in the pairs with the most tradeable structures. If the tradeable structures don't change between now and them, it doesn't matter what the price is in one month, just as long as you traded it correctly.
  • #285
  • May 20, 2014 5:08pm May 20, 2014 5:08pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} "Trader who have learned to think in probabilities approach the markets from virtually the same perspective. At the micro level, they believe that each trade or edge is unique. What they understand about the nature of trading is that at any given moment, the market may look exactly the same on the chart as it did at some previous moment; and the geometric measurements and mathematical calculations used to determine each edge can be exactly the same from one edge to then ext; but the actual consistency of the market itself from one moment...
Agreed. But I think that book is very overrated... Some of the things in it are just wrong/ too mainstream to be useful. Enhancing Trader Performance by Brett Steenbarger is a much better book to start with for new traders. This is a guy who actually worked with many successful and failing traders and know what he is talking about.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #286
  • May 20, 2014 5:12pm May 20, 2014 5:12pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Agreed. But I think that book is very overrated... Some of the things in it are just wrong/ too mainstream to be useful. Enhancing Trader Performance by Brett Steenbarger is a much better book to start with for new traders. This is a guy who actually worked with many successful and failing traders and know what he is talking about.
Thanks for the book recommendation.

This is just one of the quotes i collect from whatever i could get my hands on. I can't even remember where it came from. But yeah, this quote is a right fit for this thread.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #287
  • May 20, 2014 5:22pm May 20, 2014 5:22pm
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Ah I understand. Sorry I thought you were indeed refering to pure TA: price can only go up 'coz it broke a trendline kind of stuff. The experiment is irrelevant to you. Fundamentals play a major role in your decision process. Fundamentals are something I never focused too much on because I can't quantify them. I always considered that if they are sudden and short lived like NFP they tend to go opposite as big boys were already in position (price goes down because the buyers have already bought). After the 1st move the direction is given...
Hey pip, i always like your approach, you view the market very mechanically and methodologically.Why is so important to quantify everything ?
Do you really expect to find a formula or pattern which will make money forever, because probably you wont.

And yet most traders dont quantify anything,and make a fortune, just simply trade.I saw a lot of CME guys who traded commodity futures, and only viewed the news and fundamentals (without quantifying anything) and enhanced their decisions of buying instruments.

For example: a drought drives up wheat prices, everyone who has a TV knows about that, and everyone can trade this move like a no brainer and make money, since there would be plenty commercials to sell you the wheat thus making a market for traders.

The same is true in currencies, but a little bit different.Just purely watching news and interpreting them can be a nice edge, you dont need to correlate GDP growth of the USA with the USD or nothing like that.

As for the uncertainty part, who cares, the uncertainty is not huge, but only due to missing volatility, as the volatility increases, the uncertainty decreases, and the price will go where it must go.You dont have to predict the uncertainty,because by definition you cant, just by putting a big TP and SL, and encompassing that in your trade, and then watch where the price goes.

Quote
If it isn't random they should be able to tell me where E/U will be 1st of June 9:17:43am GMT. Or the sequence of red and green in the next 100 candles.

I think about 1.39700 +/- 10 pips, but i probably will put a wide TP and SL to find out.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #288
  • May 20, 2014 10:26pm May 20, 2014 10:26pm
im going to simplify this if only for myself,some of you guys are way beyond my scope of the maths.

flipping our coin gives us random results,the flips are random outcomes.although strings appear ,even patterns,but if we continue to flip we would never find a large sample size which would match .I believe this .its random .the strings and patterns have no meaning what so ever.

price on its so called random walk.behaves somewhat similar ,each new tick formed is chance tick higher or lower .this I believe is random.

if the coin was slightly weighted unfair bias would change the game, initially the majority would be naïve to this change and by the time they had found this bias the coin has been replaced with a fair coin and randomness .

I see a currency pair this way.by nature it is random .but information at times makes this an unfair game.so im trying to trade the unfair game with what I can establish with the limited tools available to retail.

all the research regarding the probabilities ,maths science are based on a fair game.

try cheating
  • #289
  • May 20, 2014 10:49pm May 20, 2014 10:49pm
Quoting diceman555
im going to simplify this if only for myself,some of you guys are way beyond my scope of the maths. flipping our coin gives us random results,the flips are random outcomes.although strings appear ,even patterns,but if we continue to flip we would never find a large sample size which would match .I believe this .its random .the strings and patterns have no meaning what so ever. price on its so called random walk.behaves somewhat similar ,each new tick formed is chance tick higher or lower .this I believe is random. if the coin was slightly weighted...
Exactly.So the lesson is that you have to think 2 steps ahead of the herd, because the herd is the loser.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #290
  • May 21, 2014 12:43am May 21, 2014 12:43am
I try very hard to cheat the market.... blown alot of $$$ back in my newbies day....


I still do "try to cheat the market" fortunately I am more lucky this time and I have a job..so my account is hard to blow on a medium risk buy and hold until profit...
  • #291
  • May 21, 2014 1:41am May 21, 2014 1:41am
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
In my opinion. mkt is never random. Why? becos it is man-made. Nature just does not throw out the prices randomly. If mkt is random..price would move in a haphazard manner and you dont have things like fibo and support/resistance to guide traders in their trading decisions. All these are result of self-fullfilling prophecies. If one were to look at larger timeframe, one can actually see the orderly movement of the mkt direction. Price movement in any direction is based on a collective action of a large number of traders or transactions volume aimed at moving the mkt in a specific direction. Most traders placed their trade based on careful analysis of the mkt and not just by flipping a coin..and even if they are wrong, thats becos their decision runs counter to the greater force that moves in the opposite direction. Ultimately, traders are the ones that make up the mkt. If there is no trader in the mkt, price would be stagnant.
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #292
  • May 21, 2014 2:11am May 21, 2014 2:11am
No infinite random series of numbers exists, since you can't finish it. When you stop generating it, it becomes finite. As soon as its finite, it is fixed and not random. It is a usefull mathematical fiction, like infitesmismals ( no such thing as a number so small that an infinite number of them add up to infinity)

We see patterns, but are they generated by the forces we observe, or are they generated by our imaginations? The constellation Leo is generated by forces we observe. The fact that to some it looks like a lion, is our imagination.

Can we trade well enough to profit from the market?

One out of four is at least breaking even, but if they continue to trade, will they continue to succeed?

In the ultimate scheme of things, who knows?

But with a method with a positive outlook and an antimartingale money management system, the more one grows in equity, the more secure one is...
  • #293
  • May 21, 2014 3:00am May 21, 2014 3:00am
Quoting Rap Skallion
No infinite random series of numbers exists, since you can't finish it. When you stop generating it, it becomes finite. As soon as its finite, it is fixed and not random.
Rap, here is an experiement with a serie of one single element:

I have a perfectly balanced coin in my hand. I'm going to flip it.

Is it going to show HEAD or TAIL?
To the best of your knowledge it is 50-50. You can't guess better.

I do flip the coin and stop it on the back of my hand, covering it with my other hand. You cannot see the coin. Now the face it fell on it fixed and won't change.

Is it HEAD or TAIL?
To the best of your knowledge it is STILL 50-50. You can't guess better.

I discretely have a look at the result without showing or telling you. I know the face. The face it fell on it fixed, definitive and known to me.

Is it HEAD or TAIL?
To the best of your knowledge it is always 50-50. You can still not guess better.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #294
  • May 21, 2014 3:05am May 21, 2014 3:05am
BTW guys if the market isn't random for you what's the point in predicting something you already know?
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #295
  • May 21, 2014 3:10am May 21, 2014 3:10am
Quoting Proximus
Why is so important to quantify everything ?
Because the hypothesis "market is random" holds thus far. If you don't quantify you don't estimate the risk.
What is the english word already for "risking money against the odds on an uncertain event?"
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #296
  • May 21, 2014 4:01am May 21, 2014 4:01am
Quoting diceman555
I would like to have a poll on this topic but not sure how to do that. DO YOU BELIEVE THIS MARKET IS RANDOM , ????
Now do you mean if the market is RANDOM, how would successfully and consistently profit from it? is that you question?
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #297
  • May 21, 2014 4:04am May 21, 2014 4:04am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Because the hypothesis "market is random" holds thus far. If you don't quantify you don't estimate the risk. What is the english word already for "risking money against the odds on an uncertain event?"
vegas
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #298
  • May 21, 2014 4:16am May 21, 2014 4:16am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} Rap, here is an experiement with a serie of one single element: I have a perfectly balanced coin in my hand. I'm going to flip it. Is it going to show HEAD or TAIL? To the best of your knowledge it is 50-50. You can't guess better. I do flip the coin and stop it on the back of my hand, covering it with my other hand. You cannot see the coin. Now the face it fell on it fixed and won't change. Is it HEAD or TAIL? To the best of your knowledge it is STILL 50-50. You can't guess better. I discretely have a look at the result without showing...
You are right, and yet, not right...
Just because I cannot guess does not mean it's random. There it sits in your hand, a fixed part of history, not random, either heads or tails. You and I can still disagree on which is heads and which is tails.

Now, with a little sleight of hand, any guess I made would be wrong.

That's not random either.

That market is far less constrained than a game: There is always a ratio of predictability/unpredictability to it. If it is headed somewhere fast, it is more likely to get there than if it is headed the other way. That is axiomatic. It is more likely to gain 2 pips than 200. You would agree with that wouldn't you?

In a card game if I were tossed a frog instead of a card, I would call a misdeal.

Now If I made one single trade and then quite forever, that would as random as a coin toss.
  • #299
  • May 21, 2014 5:22am May 21, 2014 5:22am
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
The act of flipping a coin to predict its outcome of head or tail is a random act. However, this is totally different from the mkt situation. The mkt comprised of both buyers and sellers. We know that price will go up if there are more buyers than sellers and vice versa. The fact that we find it difficult to predict where the mkt is heading does not mean that mkt must be random. If one notice. price usually move up or down in small movements as they plodded along. If price is random, it would not be so and traders will find erractic price gaps everywhere becos they wont be any patterns to identify if price is going up or down visually.

In that scenario, i would say that it would be impossible for any trader to trade becos that would be akin to placing infinite prices on the board and throwing a dart at it to determine where the price would be heading next. Having said that, even in a normal mkt, price gaps do happen and that in itself is also not random as it is usually the act of heavyweight buyer or seller who is trying to move the mkt in a certain direction. Assuming even in an inactive or quiet mkt, with not a single trader participating, a normal trader who comes in and put in his bid/offer in the mkt will also have an effect in moving the mkt theoretically.
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #300
  • May 21, 2014 5:49am May 21, 2014 5:49am
Most of the people start from a simple sillogism: as I'm not able to predict the market, then the market is random.
Nothing else is more far away from the truth.
If you are driving on a road that is unknown to you, can you predict where it will take you? of course no; is it a random road? of course no. If you look at the same road from a hot air baloon, can you see where it will go? of course yes; do you still believe it is random?......
If you are driving on a road within the fog, can you go on driving or do you have to stop? yes you can go on driving, but you have to focus your attention just on what you can see. So at the end, do you really need to know where the road will end to drive on it?......
2 traders viewing now