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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #27,521
  • May 15, 2014 3:01am May 15, 2014 3:01am
Hi,

I have got a question here. I have sort of posted this before about EURUSD and GBPUSD. I am not doubting the strategy when it comes to applying to other pairs. But when it comes to EURUSD and GBPUSD, it often cannot be applied. So often, so often, these 2 pairs move so fast and too quickly for one to capture a trade using the 4hr MACD. If you look at today's chart, at the opening of Europe, the price moved within 5 min, big candles. And this has been happening for some time.

Do you guys agree with me? Or perhaps Philip has something to comment on my opinion? Do you guys still trade these 2 pairs with 4hr MACD?

Thanks for your comment. But please on no way be offended because this is not my intention. If in any way I have word my opinion that sound rough, please do not be offended, I am not here to stir any argument. I am posting what I think and welcome someone to tell me what they think.

Thanks.

Nicholas
  • #27,522
  • May 15, 2014 12:21pm May 15, 2014 12:21pm
Quoting mike1349
{quote} How you do that Life? May be this helps: https://justgetflux.com/
Thanks Mike. I've installed it and it does make a difference.
  • #27,523
  • May 15, 2014 12:35pm May 15, 2014 12:35pm
Quoting nic73
Hi, I have got a question here. I have sort of posted this before about EURUSD and GBPUSD. I am not doubting the strategy when it comes to applying to other pairs. But when it comes to EURUSD and GBPUSD, it often cannot be applied. So often, so often, these 2 pairs move so fast and too quickly for one to capture a trade using the 4hr MACD. If you look at today's chart, at the opening of Europe, the price moved within 5 min, big candles. And this has been happening for some time. Do you guys agree with me? Or perhaps Philip has something to comment...
Hey Nic. That's why you can use the shorter TF's (1M, 5M,15M) to get in the trade. Phillip explains this in his most recent videos (Dec 2013 posts). If you missed a move you can always get in and be part of it. But this takes lots of experience. The other option is to look for a London Breakout strategy. But that also takes some experience.
And the question on those 2 pairs: Take the EURUSD and do backtesting for the year 2013 and see how many trades you could have made on average per month. Then you can see if this strategy is still working for the EURUSD and GBPUSD.
  • #27,524
  • Edited 7:35pm May 15, 2014 6:57pm | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting LifesAbeach
{quote} Hey Nic. That's why you can use the shorter TF's (1M, 5M,15M) to get in the trade. Phillip explains this in his most recent videos (Dec 2013 posts). If you missed a move you can always get in and be part of it. But this takes lots of experience. The other option is to look for a London Breakout strategy. But that also takes some experience. And the question on those 2 pairs: Take the EURUSD and do backtesting for the year 2013 and see how many trades you could have made on average per month. Then you can see if this strategy is still working...
Often enough, the price moved just so fast, can't even catch a trade on 5min. It could move up to 70 pips within just one 4hr candle. Even at times price moved about 40pips, 50pips market would stall just about there plus SL rather big to enter trade. I started with EURUSD gradually GBPUSD because I found it boring just trading EURUSD as I could not capture much trade. EURJPY, I watched it and I think it is a bit very volatile. These pairs were recommended on the lessons.

As a beginner, I find 5min or even 15/30min TF difficult and definitely not familiar. I went through the forum on the lower TF as you suggested and practiced it, it is not as easy as I thought. Besides, I am a bit confused as the lessons says to switch to 1hr TF if one spot a possible move on 4hr TF. And related the 8, 21 and 89ma. But in Phillip's posting he say something to the effect to switch to 30, 15 or even 5min TF to enter. See I am a bit confuse which to follow? Switch to 1Hr or even lower TF like the 5min etc.

Again I am not making any accusation or doubting whether this 4hr MACD is working. So far, my trading experiences told me it works on some pairs fairly ok. But on some other pairs especially the one I mentioned here it isn't easy to capture a trade. It take a very experience trader of this strategy to use it effectively. I suspect the market sentiment from 2007 till now might have changed thus the 4hr MACD is no longer easy to trade on these pairs. Not that it does not work but it is more difficult now.

Backtesting, I have done and I draw some of the above conclusion from that. I have also this to share if it make any sense to you all and this is for EURUSD. Just last 2.5 months alone, I think I could try to enter EURUSD, just when it is moving away from 21ema and let the trade stay for as long as possible, setting training stop whenever the move allow (setting SL a few pips above 21ema because price then to pull back to that level). There were occasions, when market will continue in a trend (up or down) for a long time and does not quite pull back to 21ema. It pulled back to 8ema or half way between 8 and 21ema.

Hope what I said make sense. As usual I welcome feedback but I am not here to make offence. Forgive me if I am being too direct.

Thanks everyone for patience.
  • #27,525
  • Edited 2:02am May 16, 2014 1:50am | Edited 2:02am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Often enough, the price moved just so fast, can't even catch a trade on 5min. It could move up to 70 pips within just one 4hr candle. Even at times price moved about 40pips, 50pips market would stall just about there plus SL rather big to enter trade. I started with EURUSD gradually GBPUSD because I found it boring just trading EURUSD as I could not capture much trade. EURJPY, I watched it and I think it is a bit very volatile. These pairs were recommended on the lessons. As a beginner, I find 5min or even 15/30min TF difficult and definitely...
Keep reading and watching everything you can about trading, it is frustrating and you will definitely NOT be relaxing on your own private island trading from your hammock. No sir.

But with determination lots and lot and lots of practice i believe you can make money from trading as a top up to a working salary...

I hear what you are saying as you cannot get into the trades, but i feel you are magnifying 1 candle and thinking that is it. Check out the moves...I have stopped looking at the euro for a month or so as it was just consolidating and doing my head in.

The gbp since the 6th of this month has crashed over 200 pips... Now somewhere duing those 200 hundred pips is a place you can enter and let the trade run.
(i am trying to bring this into my trading)

I am at the same point where i felt i was missing the trades but i realised i was not looking at the whole picture.

Try looking at the daily more and starting from there, and go down to the h4 / h1 for entry.

I am rubbish at trading, so don't follow me! But i have realised I can analyse the markets i just don't follow my own plans...

If you post your analysis up on here over the weekend and then follow it, it becomes like a personal journal and you will see how you can usually predict where the markets will go.

Try putting up a daily and h4 analysis for next week...you'll be surprised how accurate you are...the real job is then knowing when and where to enter.... That is what i am crap at.

I have a trade going with the Gbp...not a particular good one and against the trend...but its on there for you to see.
it's also a CT...which is not so clever, seen as the price gave us at least 3 opportunities to get into the move down.

edit...sorry missed my point...hahaha...if this is a turning point on the GBP from the 200 pip move down, i am getting ready to enter for the ride back up..
I am using the Daily as the signal, get ready, and then the H4 for the GO !
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  • #27,526
  • May 16, 2014 7:21pm May 16, 2014 7:21pm
[quote=yaakruay;7472989]{quote} Keep reading and watching everything you can about trading, it is frustrating and you will definitely NOT be relaxing on your own private island trading from your hammock. No sir. But with determination lots and lot and lots of practice i believe you can make money from trading as a top up to a working salary... I hear what you are saying as you cannot get into the trades, but i feel you are magnifying 1 candle and thinking that is it. Check out the moves...I have stopped looking at the euro for a month or so as it was just consolidating and doing my head in. The gbp since the 6th of this month has crashed over 200 pips................

Hi Richard,

Thanks for your insight.

I have been thinking the whole night and I think even in my sleep..... so it sort of kept me awake, after reading your post.

Not to far ago from this post, I read comments about counter trend trades and how high risk they are. It sounded like it isn't advisable to go for such trade (or have I misunderstood that piece of info)?

Early this morning, I begin going through the forum from post 1 again to look for Phillip's posting on counter trend charts (I recall he has a lot of these charts from the beginning of this forum). When I have gathered enough examples on that, I will go back to the life charts to do another round of back testing.

I should believe you and LAB (people who have been generous enough to provide feedback on my posts) are more experience than I. I don't doubt what you comment but I do need to clarify issues from time to time, you know there are things I could have misinterpreted or fail to understand.

About CT trade, this is not one area I am comfortable with and in my practice, records of winning were poor. So I am scratching my head now as to what to do. To trade or not to trade CT. What does it take to trade CT? Everything in...... MACD confirmation, price action, candle pattern, divergence, MACD pattern etc......? It all looks very simple when Phillip does it, but in actual practice..... I just don't know.

Thanks Richard for your reply. Appreciate. Have a nice weekend.

Nicholas
  • #27,527
  • May 17, 2014 1:17am May 17, 2014 1:17am
Quoting nic73
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Keep reading and watching everything you can about trading, it is frustrating and you will definitely NOT be relaxing on your own private island trading from your hammock. No sir. But with determination lots and lot and lots of practice i believe you can make money from trading as a top up to a working salary... I hear what you are saying as you cannot get into the trades, but i feel you are magnifying 1 candle and thinking that is it. Check out the moves...I have stopped looking at the euro for a month or so as it
...

CT I believe are easier to see on the eye than a TC (trend continuation) as price is usually going into thin air, you need to make the targets from fibs/support lines/big round numbers BRN etc....

A CT is visually appealing as you can see that price should return to a moving average, it's much easier to visualise this happening than see price zoom into thin air on a TC

CT's are against the trend but your eye can see what you would like to happen, easier than a TC.

You are more likely to lose doing CT's versus TC.

IMHO..

I am a novice trader until i can show profit month after month then i would call myself an intermediate trader, this year i am treading water...not losing or winning...

I don't recommend CT...the profit is in TC's.....

I know that's contradicting my last trade but i was confident that the support line on the daily would be enough to stop and reject price.

Now, this is what we want to look for next week on the GBP.

If the RB is confirmed on the daily chart, then we can look for a long entry on the H4, using this system.

We can watch this trade unfold, so keep posting.. (i closed the trade early and lost out on 30 extra pips) but usually I don't like trading on Fridays as i generally lose.

So, next week the GBP which is causing you problems as you feel there are fast violent moves you cannot catch, we will trade together and watch trades unfold..... so post a chart as to what you think will happen next week on the h4 or daily.

cheers..

Enjoy the weekend...12 cans of cider has seen to that happening! hahaha
  • #27,528
  • May 17, 2014 1:31am May 17, 2014 1:31am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Often enough, the price moved just so fast, can't even catch a trade on 5min. It could move up to 70 pips within just one 4hr candle. Even at times price moved about 40pips, 50pips market would stall just about there plus SL rather big to enter trade. I started with EURUSD gradually GBPUSD because I found it boring just trading EURUSD as I could not capture much trade. EURJPY, I watched it and I think it is a bit very volatile. These pairs were recommended on the lessons. As a beginner, I find 5min or even 15/30min TF difficult and definitely...

Sorry to post again, but i would like to add.

As boring and slow as it is, you would be much better going the other way.

Watching the h4 and daily....than h4 down to m5...

I can remember reading Niall Fuller when i first started learning and he recommends that too, but i couldn't wait to make an order and come home from work and see what had happened..

Now after a few years, i don't care if i trade or not..no trading means not losing any money..that is a win win...you see LaB said he did not trade for 3 weeks either.

So my advice, stop going down the timeframes and go to the h4 and daily.....

We'll smash the GBP next week from the h4 and daily, then you will believe...
  • #27,529
  • May 17, 2014 2:13am May 17, 2014 2:13am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Sorry to post again, but i would like to add. As boring and slow as it is, you would be much better going the other way. Watching the h4 and daily....than h4 down to m5... I can remember reading Niall Fuller when i first started learning and he recommends that too, but i couldn't wait to make an order and come home from work and see what had happened.. Now after a few years, i don't care if i trade or not..no trading means not losing any money..that is a win win...you see LaB said he did not trade for 3 weeks either. So my advice, stop...
good advice.... dropping times just proves you have emotional issues in your trading... it's not ment to be exciting.. waiting is a big part of the game.
  • #27,530
  • May 17, 2014 5:29am May 17, 2014 5:29am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Sorry to post again, but i would like to add. As boring and slow as it is, you would be much better going the other way. Watching the h4 and daily....than h4 down to m5... I can remember reading Niall Fuller when i first started learning and he recommends that too, but i couldn't wait to make an order and come home from work and see what had happened.. Now after a few years, i don't care if i trade or not..no trading means not losing any money..that is a win win...you see LaB said he did not trade for 3 weeks either. So my advice, stop going...
I also agree. Many many many traders look at the daily TF before they go to their shorter TF strategy.
Use the daily for your major support/resistance and trade in the direction of the daily TF by looking at the Daily MA's. Then switch to the 4H and get your minor support/resistance and wait for a setup.
  • #27,531
  • May 18, 2014 7:54am May 18, 2014 7:54am
thanks phillip
  • #27,532
  • May 18, 2014 8:18pm May 18, 2014 8:18pm
Quoting yaakruay
{quote}{quote} CT I believe are easier to see on the eye than a TC (trend continuation) as price is usually going into thin air, you need to make the targets from fibs/support lines/big round numbers BRN etc.... A CT is visually appealing as you can see that price should return to a moving average, it's much easier to visualise this happening than see price zoom into thin air on a TC CT's are against the trend but your eye can see what you would like to happen, easier than a TC. You are more likely to lose doing CT's versus TC. IMHO.. I am a novice...
Thanks Richard and LAB for your patience and taking time to reply. Ok, let's keep watch of the GBP market together and learn. I have posted 2 chart on Daily and H4. I don't know is that what you meant by the RB on Daily you mentioned. If yes, ok RB has formed. But as I see on H4 and trade for buy would means counter trend trade since 89sma is above the market. And price at this moment is between 21ema an 89sma. So we expect to see price move away from 21ema, pull back to it and move away again (towards 89sma).

BTW, what is IMHO?
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Comments?
  • #27,533
  • May 19, 2014 1:58am May 19, 2014 1:58am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Thanks Richard and LAB for your patience and taking time to reply. Ok, let's keep watch of the GBP market together and learn. I have posted 2 chart on Daily and H4. I don't know is that what you meant by the RB on Daily you mentioned. If yes, ok RB has formed. But as I see on H4 and trade for buy would means counter trend trade since 89sma is above the market. And price at this moment is between 21ema an 89sma. So we expect to see price move away from 21ema, pull back to it and move away again (towards 89sma). BTW, what is IMHO?{image}{image}...

IMHO = in my humble opinion...it is internet forum speak...

That is a great analysis...nice pictures with clear trendlines etc.

The RB on the daily isn't a good RB there really needs to be 4 red bars down...maybe we can call this a look a like???? if it works.

H4 the price is stuck between the 89 and 200...Phillip talks about price getting stuck between ma's.. and bouncing off them
(so you could trade a bounce off either, then you could use a smaller time frame to get in and out faster)

So our job is now to wait for the breakout away from the 89 or 200...that is when we will get the big move and make pips...
(this is when we are not bothered about a 50 pip candle...that we have missed...because that is just one move,....we are after the move that will last days/weeks...not 1 candle)

For now, I would sit this out and wait for the clear breakout of the 89 or 200 on the h4....

Or a risky trade would be to buy the bounce off the 200 up to the 89 and then sell from the 89....try that...that should keep the nerves happy.. ;-)

We can try another currency that you can see a set up on...post your analysis

I hope someone else can comment too...
  • #27,534
  • Edited 3:20am May 19, 2014 2:44am | Edited 3:20am
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Quoting yaakruay
{quote} IMHO = in my humble opinion...it is internet forum speak... That is a great analysis...nice pictures with clear trendlines etc. The RB on the daily isn't a good RB there really needs to be 4 red bars down...maybe we can call this a look a like???? if it works. H4 the price is stuck between the 89 and 200...Phillip talks about price getting stuck between ma's.. and bouncing off them (so you could trade a bounce off either, then you could use a smaller time frame to get in and out faster) So our job is now to wait for the breakout away from...
Yup, that's what I have in mind - trade between 21ema and 89sma and wait for the bounce.

The other currencies that I am trading .... no sign of possible buy or sell yet. But i have USDCHF and UDNZD which I have analysed.

What currencies do you trade? Would you have time to post some charts here?

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Nicholas
  • #27,535
  • Edited 1:19pm May 19, 2014 12:52pm | Edited 1:19pm
Quoting nic73
1429661{quote} Yup, that's what I have in mind - trade between 21ema and 89sma and wait for the bounce. The other currencies that I am trading .... no sign of possible buy or sell yet. But i have USDCHF and UDNZD which I have analysed. What currencies do you trade? Would you have time to post some charts here? {image}{image}{image}{image} Nicholas

Those are some great charts and analysis..

I'm learning from you as you are reinforcing the system and how to look at charts..


This was a scalp trade today...taken at work on my mobile app.

I saw that the h1/h4/daily were all lined up.. 3 ducks ready to go.

We are on a strong support area and you can really see that on the weekly TF.

So i was targeting the BRN about 30 pips away.

Price never got there and looked like reversing back up, so i closed the order manually....it may come back down lets see..


The currencies i trade...crikey, i have opened them all up after reading some guru or teacher or who ever...

Now I only trade eur/usd......usd/jpy.....aud/usd...gbp/usd....this is based on a great strategy and understanding of the market..
These are the lowest spread pairs offered by my broker..! easy to choose which pairs to trade..

This happened after i opened a trade up on my phone and it didn't show me the spread and i was like 5 pips down as soon as i'd opened it.....so i knew instantly that to sort out which pairs to trade would be simple...which offer the lowest spread... and it worked..i just stick with these.

If i cannot see a set up coming..then so be it...i will wait.. (most times) hehe

Really, I'm serious...i will check those 4 currencies and if there is not trade i can see then i will not be trading...full stop!

I used to have about 12 - 15 pairs on my phone and mt4 to look at and thought i would be able to spot the moves and set ups...rubbish...i could only see them with everyone else and that was afterwards...

I may have other currencies open on charts just to check what people are talking about..


Hope this helps...
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  • #27,536
  • May 19, 2014 1:04pm May 19, 2014 1:04pm
Quoting nic73
{quote} Thanks Richard and LAB for your patience and taking time to reply. Ok, let's keep watch of the GBP market together and learn. I have posted 2 chart on Daily and H4. I don't know is that what you meant by the RB on Daily you mentioned. If yes, ok RB has formed. But as I see on H4 and trade for buy would means counter trend trade since 89sma is above the market. And price at this moment is between 21ema an 89sma. So we expect to see price move away from 21ema, pull back to it and move away again (towards 89sma). BTW, what is IMHO?{image}{image}...
Here are my comments as usual. You got it spot on with the Daily. Price broke the 21ema and pulled back to it so now we expect a downmove. Now going down to the 4H I would only be looking for going short. But looking at the 4H price is between the 89sma and 200sma which means consolidation.
Again I'm not the expert here and just sharing what I've learned so far working through the thread. Phillip says somewhere that when price is consolidating it's risky taking trades in the middle. So I would stay out for the moment. And like Richard says wait till price breaks the 89 and 200. Let's hope to the downside so that it fits in with the daily direction.
I've changed my charts a bit. It's better for my eyes. Thanks Mike.
For anyone who wants to test it just type in 41,41,50 for background. It really makes a difference.
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  • #27,537
  • May 19, 2014 5:54pm May 19, 2014 5:54pm
hi

I am Long on EUR/JPY D:
- nice pinbar
- the way to the 21 MA far away
- TB on MACD
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  • #27,538
  • May 20, 2014 12:53am May 20, 2014 12:53am
Quoting akir
hi I am Long on EUR/JPY D: - nice pinbar - the way to the 21 MA far away - TB on MACD {image}
Good call on the daily...

But a bit too early for me to enter going down to the H1...

it's still trading below the 89...i want to see it above the 89 on the h1 at least before i take the counter trend.

I don't trade this pair...so just looking and learning....

good luck...
  • #27,539
  • May 20, 2014 1:28am May 20, 2014 1:28am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Good call on the daily... But a bit too early for me to enter going down to the H1... it's still trading below the 89...i want to see it above the 89 on the h1 at least before i take the counter trend. I don't trade this pair...so just looking and learning.... good luck...
yes,

Fails on 89 H1, but I see a nice divergence on H4 too, if the 139 round number holds
that would be a good sign....
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  • #27,540
  • May 20, 2014 2:11am May 20, 2014 2:11am
I have an issue here since I started using the coloured MACD. I can see the level lines (15,30,45, -15 etc). If you look at the chart below the lines are too close together. I reset it to 150,300 etc. but will disappear when I switch to different currency chart. Know how I could fix this?

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