Do you believe this market is random? | Page 13 | Forex Factory

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Do you believe this market is random?

  • #241
  • May 19, 2014 3:24am May 19, 2014 3:24am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I still think it is an illusion, I see price going through the lines as often as respecting them, I can't help feeling you want to believe there is order so your brain allows you to see it. Have you tried placing random lines and comparing?
hi 60minuteman,

I think your misunderstanding me, I have no interest in support/ resistance .my levels are not that.im building a picture of the market structure.i do this from longterm t/f right down to the quote price and take my entries from the quote.i also use 14 pairs of data to try and establish a general overall market structure.using lots of averaging to smooth out the randomness seen in single pairs.i guess you could call it curve fitting .
  • #242
  • May 19, 2014 5:18am May 19, 2014 5:18am
Market is not random. But market thinks people are random.
Tip for newbies, follow this guy twitter @fxmanagedfunds
  • #243
  • May 19, 2014 5:54am May 19, 2014 5:54am
Do you believe this was random?
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  • #244
  • May 19, 2014 6:05am May 19, 2014 6:05am
Quoting alexx90
Do you believe this was random? {image}
Yes random luck.
Tip for newbies, follow this guy twitter @fxmanagedfunds
  • #245
  • May 19, 2014 6:36am May 19, 2014 6:36am
Quoting mrhipster
{quote} Yes random luck.
Luck is something that is not decided by the will, and let me say, I decided when to enter and when to exit. So now, do 2+2 and find your result.
  • #246
  • May 19, 2014 6:54am May 19, 2014 6:54am
Quoting alexx90
{quote} Luck is something that is not decided by the will, and let me say, I decided when to enter and when to exit. So now, do 2+2 and find your result.
One positive trade. Well done you. Now do that 1000 times. I doubt it.

It is nice of you to post one profitable trade.
Tip for newbies, follow this guy twitter @fxmanagedfunds
  • #247
  • May 19, 2014 7:44am May 19, 2014 7:44am
i believe these posts are becoming a bit random
  • #248
  • May 19, 2014 9:11am May 19, 2014 9:11am
To understand trading you have to go beyond the charts.
Trading is like driving a car: Rolls Royce and Ferrari, a part anyone preferences, are the best cars in the world but if you do not know how to drive you will go nowhere even with one of those cars, and if you do not have a map telling you where you are you will go nowhere even if you would be the best driver in the world with the best car in the world.
If you still do not understand the market it doesn't mean it is random, it does mean you do not understand the market.
  • #249
  • May 19, 2014 11:39am May 19, 2014 11:39am
Quoting mrhipster
{quote} One positive trade. Well done you. Now do that 1000 times. I doubt it. It is nice of you to post one profitable trade.
If someone will say he has profit after 1000 trades skeptics will say it was all luck. If someone will say he has made profit in the last 10 years they will say it was all luck and he will not be so lucky in the future because there is no study that proves profitable trading is possible and statistics are not proof because past result don't guarantee future results. They will also show that 95% of traders are losing. If so many traders are losing it's clear that only the big players can make money because the average trader is very smart and if he can't make money then no other retail trader can make money. They will also say all statistics and backtesting that show a profit are fake, only statistics that show loses are the ones that are not invented.
  • #250
  • May 19, 2014 1:11pm May 19, 2014 1:11pm
No. I do not believe that the market is random. The market runs in a different way it is in such way that very few people can recognize this. You can also feel it if you keep up to date of a pair for about 3 to 5 years. Then you will be able to make a good forecast. You also need to take the news of those country depending on those pairs. It is difficult to answer for different pairs.
  • #251
  • May 19, 2014 2:09pm May 19, 2014 2:09pm
If the market looks random to you, your TF is too small.

Does this look random to anyone??
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Disregard all prognostications.
  • #252
  • May 19, 2014 3:43pm May 19, 2014 3:43pm
Quoting Pidgeon
If the market looks random to you, your TF is too small. Does this look random to anyone??{image}
I was going to post the AUD/USD Daily chart and make the same observation. Nice post! The market structure of the aud has been pretty clear (not random ) for over a year.
  • #253
  • May 19, 2014 3:56pm May 19, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting alexx90
{quote} Luck is something that is not decided by the will, and let me say, I decided when to enter and when to exit. So now, do 2+2 and find your result.
I like to define luck as when skill meets an opportunity.If you define luck as just being random, I would rather be lucky than good.
  • #254
  • May 19, 2014 4:23pm May 19, 2014 4:23pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I was going to post the AUD/USD Daily chart and make the same observation. Nice post! The market structure of the aud has been pretty clear (not random ) for over a year.
all this proves is that the market has moments of being efficient and moments of being random and inefficient. If the market was like AU all the time everybody would win all the time. Unless you accept both hypothesis you are already at a massive dis-advantage. With so many people involved and with reactions to the market being so random it's very short sighted to dismiss random market completely...

There has been a lot of study on this subject already, i'm guessing by individuals of much higher intellect than most of us, are we going to dismiss it now considering it has carried so much weight for so long?
tradewith60
  • #255
  • May 19, 2014 5:03pm May 19, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting ElvisT
{quote} I like to define luck as when skill meets an opportunity.If you define luck as just being random, I would rather be lucky than good.
You are absolutely right!
  • #256
  • May 19, 2014 5:37pm May 19, 2014 5:37pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} all this proves is that the market has moments of being efficient and moments of being random and inefficient. If the market was like AU all the time everybody would win all the time. Unless you accept both hypothesis you are already at a massive dis-advantage. With so many people involved and with reactions to the market being so random it's very short sighted to dismiss random market completely... There has been a lot of study on this subject already, i'm guessing by individuals of much higher intellect than most of us, are we going to...
Hi 60minuteman, Yes it proves that the forex is, at times, not random. In fact, nearly every day, there are periods of non-random behavior in at least 2 or3 of the pairs I trade. I would never dismiss random behavior, but I will avoid trading it every time. If the market is, at times, not random, then the discussion should not be on if the market is or is not random, but instead, how can a trader determine if and when the non random behavior is present. Avoid all trade set ups during random periods; be selective with set ups during non random periods. As for studies and research, no, these people are not smarter than me.
  • #257
  • May 19, 2014 6:04pm May 19, 2014 6:04pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Hi 60minuteman, Yes it proves that the forex is, at times, not random. In fact, nearly every day, there are periods of non-random behavior in at least 2 or3 of the pairs I trade. I would never dismiss random behavior, but I will avoid trading it every time. If the market is, at times, not random, then the discussion should not be on if the market is or is not random, but instead, how can a trader determine if and when the non random behavior is present. Avoid all trade set ups during random periods; be selective with set ups during non random...
hahah good answer, it helps to believe in oneself too.
tradewith60
  • #258
  • May 19, 2014 6:33pm May 19, 2014 6:33pm
I'll try to not get into the habit of explaining definitions, but I feel 'random' needs to be looked at.

If we look at how we define the word random, we can get some answers. If we say that the market is random, then we can say that the market is behaving without reason. What are we trying to use for 'reason' with the market? I would think it's reasonable to assume that the prices never arbitrarily move, but there are always orders being placed that cause the movement. The reasons behind the orders are sometimes for reasons that we know and understand. When those reasons are not understood, those are the times that we call random and those are the times when we should not trade.

A quick example was years ago when I first started trading. At that time I was doing it purely with a technical analysis. I would notice that the price would randomly jump or start trending. There was no reason that I knew of for the prices to do this, so it was completely random. Keep in mind that when I say I first started trading, I had only been doing it for a few months.

I took notice of this and figured there might be a pattern to this. I noticed certain days of the month there would often be large movements. After realizing that it happened on certain days, I looked as to why people would trade more on those days. Then I found out what the non-farm payroll was. I found out how it affected the market. Afterall, what seemed to be random, I was able to put a certain level of reasoning and understanding around what was happening and why.

That has really helped me to understand that there is always a reason the price is moving, but I don't always know why. When I don't know why and it appears to be random, I don't trade at those times because it appears 'random' to me. I've been able to accept that the market appears random to me, but the information is always there. It's about knowing the reasons behind the movement. There are so many reasons that the price could be moving. Sometimes it's as easy as knowing when the market openings are. Other times it could be something that would be completely unreasonable for me to know, like a couple of big traders are trying to collectively move the market, or just that most everyone agrees in the same direction.

So I have to be able to decide what is reasonable for me to know about why the price is moving. There are a finite number of variables that will make the price move, I have to decide which ones are reasonable for me to know and how I can make a strategy around the known variables. Theoretically, if I knew every variable, I would be able to take advantage of every price movement and nothing would be random. I can only know so much and I can only work with what I know....so when the market appears random, I just know that there is a reason for it, but I don't know that reason.
  • #259
  • May 20, 2014 5:42am May 20, 2014 5:42am
What I find amusing is that lots of mathematicians and risk analysts who make a living employed by the city and wall street accept randomness.
Once again, not that the market is random, but that randomness needs to be considered for survival in this game. It even helps a trader to accept a loss.

Then you see the other side, traders posting one single chart of a limited life span, and pointing out how beautiful and harmonic the obvious trend or pattern is, in hindsight of course.

The point is that it's not important if the market is or isn't random, but is very important to understand that you can not forecast it, it'll eventually save your account if you factor the risk of randomness in, and maybe.. just maybe, even put it to work on your favor.

Not factoring randomness in, can only work at someone disadvantage.
  • #260
  • May 20, 2014 5:59am May 20, 2014 5:59am
Quoting cesare76fx
What I find amusing is that lots of mathematicians and risk analysts who make a living employed by the city and wall street accept randomness. Once again, not that the market is random, but that randomness needs to be considered for survival in this game. It even helps a trader to accept a loss. Then you see the other side, traders posting one single chart of a limited life span, and pointing out how beautiful and harmonic the obvious trend or pattern is, in hindsight of course. The point is that it's not important if the market is or isn't random,...
Exactly man. After 7 long years in the markets I have a thing I understand which works out for me sometimes, and sometimes it doesn't. It doesn't because I can simply not forsee every variable and surprise news event, or scrupulous behavior. And I accept that.

For years I didn't accept that.

My system is certainly built around a definable situation which I believe to be inevitable and non random. But the eventuations of that situation are definitely random. Where I capatalise is simply riding it out when I am correct in my position. And getting out when things don't go my way.

Now the trick is in defining each step; What is "my way".. What is not... The entry is the easy part. It took me many years to define the latter, and that I believe is where my edge lyes. Like a self fulfilling prophecy I know what needs to happen next to stay exposed to the volatility of the market and that is a big part of my edge personally.

Years in the past for me it was all about the entry and exit, mostly I'd wing the in between of the trade. This did not work for me. Some would call this money management. I call this just trading... Trading my system..

Anyway, my stance as I think I've said earlier is a 4 dimensional one; Sometimes the market is random sometimes the market is not. Sometimes the market may be random to an individual where to another it may not. Whatever the scenario or eventuation or whether they "really knew" or were just lucky to me is irrelevant.

Predictable or not. I know that overall profiting from the market consistently and beating the long run game is entirely possible and therefore the market is nothing more than a potential provider of this. To say it was predictable or luck is just like arguing whether your loss was unlucky or due to your lack of skill.

It happened.. Move on. The market will provide another opportunity soon for you to express your optimism or pessimism, whatever you feel it looks better in

It doesn't matter
like totally failure brah
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