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  • #4,301
  • May 15, 2014 4:20pm May 15, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting Olu
EurUsd {image}
That candle might be a bull trap. I don't know. Sometimes these "obvious" things work. Sometimes they turn out to be a trap. Flip a coin.
I have some underwater puts that I want to get out of so if they want to push it up to 1.38 I'll be more than happy.
There is so much potential downside for the euro, I think later this year we'll be looking back and wondering why we didn't bet the farm on it.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,302
  • May 15, 2014 4:22pm May 15, 2014 4:22pm
Quoting Olu
Natural Gas {image}
I exited my longs today on that spike; I reckon it's 50-50 they'll push it right back down again; bear in mind the actual contract chart has a lower low (about 3c lower) than the investing.com chart (edit: forget that: I just noticed that the investing.com chart shows the same thing):
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,303
  • May 16, 2014 2:16am May 16, 2014 2:16am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I exited my longs today on that spike; I reckon it's 50-50 they'll push it right back down again; bear in mind the actual contract chart has a lower low (about 3c lower) than the investing.com chart (edit: forget that: I just noticed that the investing.com chart shows the same thing): {image}

Well done BW on that timely exit. Weekly chart looks like there might be more downside. That 4.300 shelf might be solid support for now though. If it goes we might be returning to the bad old days of the mid 3 handle

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,304
  • May 16, 2014 5:40am May 16, 2014 5:40am
Quoting Olu
EurUsd {image}
Hey O, Long time.....
yeah that's a cracker......I opted to put short orders on the USD/CHF....same same
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  • #4,305
  • May 16, 2014 8:53am May 16, 2014 8:53am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Well done BW on that timely exit. Weekly chart looks like there might be more downside. That 4.300 shelf might be solid support for now though. If it goes we might be returning to the bad old days of the mid 3 handle Olu
I'd like to see 4.25 Olu; a minor lower low that would freak out some bulls and get the bears excited. I think the chances of seeing a 3 handle are quite slim, but then, my knowledge of the NG market is not exactly great.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,306
  • May 17, 2014 11:57am May 17, 2014 11:57am
Quoting mypipbull
{quote} Hey O, Long time..... yeah that's a cracker......I opted to put short orders on the USD/CHF....same same {image}

Yes long time MPB but I visit your thread regularly. I see you decided not to jump in straightaway. Wise move and strategy. Let the market carry you along when it has made up its mind to move. Thanks for the chart.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,307
  • May 17, 2014 12:00pm May 17, 2014 12:00pm
Dollar Index
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,308
  • May 17, 2014 12:01pm May 17, 2014 12:01pm
Gold
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,309
  • May 17, 2014 12:02pm May 17, 2014 12:02pm
Copper
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,310
  • May 17, 2014 12:03pm May 17, 2014 12:03pm
Coffee
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,311
  • May 17, 2014 12:04pm May 17, 2014 12:04pm
Cocoa
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,312
  • May 17, 2014 12:05pm May 17, 2014 12:05pm
Soybeans
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,313
  • May 17, 2014 12:41pm May 17, 2014 12:41pm
NZD Futures
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,314
  • May 17, 2014 12:59pm May 17, 2014 12:59pm
Nasdaq 100 Futures

The techs have been battered recently - more than the main indexes. But price is trying to make a comeback and on the right we have an ascending triangle pattern which should normally break to the upside. At the same time the whole right side is part of a possible H&S pattern which is not good for the index.

If 3620 is taken out then we know we are going up.
If the triangle boundary is taken out to the downside then we are going lower towards confirming the H&S pattern

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,315
  • May 18, 2014 8:20am May 18, 2014 8:20am
Quoting Olu
Gold {image}
I think gold is going higher. Might go a bit lower first. Let's see.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,316
  • May 18, 2014 8:24am May 18, 2014 8:24am
Quoting Olu
Copper {image} {image}
Are you (still) short copper Olu? I am. I pulled out at about 3.15xx, then went back in at pretty much the same price, chastising myself for being so impatient.
I was concerned that it hadn't dropped when stocks were dropping. As it is, I think there might be a bit more upside to the same area as you highlight: 3.20; a move beyond there could be a sign there's a big commodity rally coming. That is possible, but regardless, hopefully we get a pullback of sorts first.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,317
  • May 18, 2014 10:27am May 18, 2014 10:27am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Are you (still) short copper Olu? I am. I pulled out at about 3.15xx, then went back in at pretty much the same price, chastising myself for being so impatient. I was concerned that it hadn't dropped when stocks were dropping. As it is, I think there might be a bit more upside to the same area as you highlight: 3.20; a move beyond there could be a sign there's a big commodity rally coming. That is possible, but regardless, hopefully we get a pullback of sorts first.

No I am not. I chickened out for the same reason as you. Stock market going down but copper going up. I am very bearish and will be looking to short this week. Depends on price action could be as early as tomorrow

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,318
  • May 18, 2014 10:28am May 18, 2014 10:28am
Quoting Olu
NZD Futures {image}
NZD, big sell, I'm sizably short here, and willing to be patient for a large move down. But it could take some time.
Check out what's happened to NZ 5y bond yields in the last few weeks: now that's what I call a reversal.
It looks like NZ is joining the rest of us in disinflation land. The NZD should follow. Well, that's the theory anyway.
Attached Image
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,319
  • May 18, 2014 10:30am May 18, 2014 10:30am
Quoting Olu
{quote} No I am not. I chickened out for the same reason as you. Stock market going down but copper going up. I am very bearish and will be looking to short this week. Depends on price action could be as early as tomorrow Olu
I think it's 50-50 that there's a bull spike to take out shorts before it rolls over. I'm willing to take that risk, because I think there's a 90% chance that this is just a bear market rally and that in time we'll see sub-$3 again.
But could be painful if I'm wrong.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,320
  • May 18, 2014 10:56am May 18, 2014 10:56am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think it's 50-50 that there's a bull spike to take out shorts before it rolls over. I'm willing to take that risk, because I think there's a 90% chance that this is just a bear market rally and that in time we'll see sub-$3 again. But could be painful if I'm wrong.

Hence my willingness to sell as close as possible to the resistance line to reduce risk. It could be painful but on the other hand if this upmove was to shake out weak shorts then thd real move down would be beautiful. One does not make profits by being outside the markets

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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