why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption? | Page 105 | Forex Factory

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why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

  • #2,081
  • May 15, 2014 4:11am May 15, 2014 4:11am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Edit (making it a representative sample):
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} 139 trades not significant (can you see what i did there!) and it's demo...
Yea well trading the markets vs finding exploitable repeating patterns is not the same.But as you wish, one day i will have a significant sample anyway
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #2,082
  • May 15, 2014 4:24am May 15, 2014 4:24am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} {quote} Yea well trading the markets vs finding exploitable repeating patterns is not the same.But as you wish, one day i will have a significant sample anyway
sure, just having some fun... looks to be going ok so far, well done
tradewith60
  • #2,083
  • May 15, 2014 4:24am May 15, 2014 4:24am
Quote
As for Mary, it could be 1/3, if you dont know any additional information, i`m not a doctor, but i`m sure there are methods to measure the outcome more precisely than that, and i think some genetics still play a role here.But of course without those information you have no way of knowing.
You need a post-doctoral diploma in genetics to answer a riddle yet you can acurately predict the market... hmm interesting.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #2,084
  • May 15, 2014 5:03am May 15, 2014 5:03am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} sure, just having some fun... looks to be going ok so far, well done
Thanks.

Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} You need a post-doctoral diploma in genetics to answer a riddle yet you can acurately predict the market... hmm interesting.
Yup.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #2,085
  • May 15, 2014 8:42am May 15, 2014 8:42am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Power of the long tail. Yes, I am inclined to think that no matter what time frame there's an edge in this. It is to forget about 1:2 or 1:3 and only go for the trades that have potential of 1:7 and above at least because these events while rare are almost guaranteed to happen in a large enough sample of outcomes. Think Poisson distribution. In other words, the hypothesis of if I place 1:1RR trades in the markets randomly, then I will lose 50% of my trades implies that if I set 1:7, I will lose 7/8 of my trades is not true... the scaling...
I know there are a lot of people who do not seem to benefit from long tails, but take a look at any weekly chart and see how you would have benefited from scaling in to position in the direction of the trend. Most people struggle with profit because they are....

1. not patient
2. feel like they need to be doing something.

This is not factory work, it is a retail business. Thanks for your input snailshell.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #2,086
  • May 15, 2014 9:19am May 15, 2014 9:19am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I know there are a lot of people who do not seem to benefit from long tails, but take a look at any weekly chart and see how you would have benefited from scaling in to position in the direction of the trend. Most people struggle with profit because they are.... 1. not patient 2. feel like they need to be doing something. This is not factory work, it is a retail business. Thanks for your input snailshell.
spot on.... the one place the big money can not disguise their moves is on the higher TF's
tradewith60
  • #2,087
  • May 15, 2014 11:56pm May 15, 2014 11:56pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I know there are a lot of people who do not seem to benefit from long tails, but take a look at any weekly chart and see how you would have benefited from scaling in to position in the direction of the trend. Most people struggle with profit because they are.... 1. not patient 2. feel like they need to be doing something. This is not factory work, it is a retail business. Thanks for your input snailshell.
A weekly tail is a very late entry, you would be on a pretty low leverage to withstand the inevitable (probable) shake out/ retrace... on a weekly scale. When I say "very late" I'm talking about 150-200 pips from the top/bottom.

plus the time you wait for that candle! (At least a week )
like totally failure brah
  • #2,088
  • May 16, 2014 3:50am May 16, 2014 3:50am
Quoting simonb
{quote} A weekly tail is a very late entry, you would be on a pretty low leverage to withstand the inevitable (probable) shake out/ retrace... on a weekly scale. When I say "very late" I'm talking about 150-200 pips from the top/bottom. plus the time you wait for that candle! (At least a week )
1. what is 1-200 pips from the bottom on an 800 pip move?

2. I was not implying that I trade weekly candles for triggers.

What if I told you time frame was irrelevant for entry triggers?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #2,089
  • May 16, 2014 4:52am May 16, 2014 4:52am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} 1. what is 1-200 pips from the bottom on an 800 pip move?
1 - It's late (25% of the move)

And I'd ask you to tell me something I didn't already know
like totally failure brah
  • #2,090
  • May 16, 2014 5:36pm May 16, 2014 5:36pm
Quoting simonb
{quote} 1 - It's late (25% of the move) And I'd ask you to tell me something I didn't already know
So what is your definition of late for a move?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #2,091
  • May 16, 2014 6:40pm May 16, 2014 6:40pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} So what is your definition of late for a move?
I think he means late because it took a week for price to get to the point, and all the while you were out of the trade sitting on your hands. It's a situation we all have to deal with, since the imbalances in the market change from day to day you would have to be a great trader to be aware of all of this happening, today the daily might have the best setup or tomorrow the 4 hour might and so on and so forth. He might be right, but you can't catch them all (a line from my child hood cartoon Pokemon).
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
  • #2,092
  • May 16, 2014 8:22pm May 16, 2014 8:22pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} So what is your definition of late for a move?
Hey Jmn, kind of like what Blane was saying, but 25% of an intraday trend wouldn't be as late as 25% of a weekly move.

in my view, a weekly tail is likely an established and possibly exhausted intraday trend. That's where I'm coming from.
like totally failure brah
  • #2,093
  • May 16, 2014 9:21pm May 16, 2014 9:21pm
Quoting simonb
{quote} Hey Jmn, kind of like what Blane was saying, but 25% of an intraday trend wouldn't be as late as 25% of a weekly move. in my view, a weekly tail is likely an established and possibly exhausted intraday trend. That's where I'm coming from.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #2,094
  • Last Post: Dec 3, 2015 9:06pm Dec 3, 2015 9:06pm
because anything can change the price, even a little information can change it. and any trader is trying to avoid lose, so why we must use the information to make a prediction to avoid lose.
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