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  • #3,621
  • May 15, 2014 1:25am May 15, 2014 1:25am
so, tomorrow we have ER's for retailers JCP and WMT. both look like they be primed for a drop to me. JCP is too cheap, really, but it has > 30% of the float short. ER could precipitate a squeeze and JCP could run up $9 to $14 in a week, just like it fell $14 to $9 in a week back in September.......I might strangle June 6 $7.00/$11.00 for <$0.25 net. JCP dropped $9.21 to $8.75 on Wed.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,622
  • May 15, 2014 1:43am May 15, 2014 1:43am
WMT has got a chart with decent action. Should see $79.00 pinned Thursday......
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,623
  • May 15, 2014 1:52am May 15, 2014 1:52am
a day can make a difference, better have new theories ready for a new day....

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-b...-rising-2014-5

" Stifel Nicolaus' Dave Lutz just blasted an email with a few theories:

  1. Bundesbank headlines. "US yields are following German yields lower after those Bundesbank headers y'day, and 2 ECB speakers being dovish today," said Lutz. He's referring to Tuesday's WSJ report that said "Germany's central bank is willing to back an array of stimulus measures from the European Central Bank next month, including a negative rate on bank deposits and purchases of packaged bank loans if needed to keep inflation from staying too low, a person familiar with the matter said." This would be a major reversal coming from an organization that is notorious for being very tight about monetary policy."
  2. Japan demand. "Japanese buying for the same reason as Germans," said Lutz. "Japanese yields are 1.95% lower than US. Pensions and lifers in Japan are thirsty for yield.
  3. China monetary policy. "Chinese buying as they depress CNY," said Lutz. "I understand they need to buy more Treasuries to offsetthe FX rebalance.
  4. Positioning. "10y short interest futures (CFTC) data showing a very crowded short," said Lutz. "The crowd is rarely right, and now the squeeze is on."

Lutz noted that none of this really reflects a flight to safety. "

"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,624
  • May 15, 2014 8:16am May 15, 2014 8:16am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Selling premium, what there might be to find...
Hey TF - I'm with you on that :-)

Could be another nice down down today.....Hopefully vol also picks up and we can get some richer premium.....
  • #3,625
  • May 15, 2014 8:58am May 15, 2014 8:58am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Took the CSCO punt: 5/17 $24c - $0.12; 5/23 $21.50p - $0.16, net debit $0.28. CSCO closed @22.81. I need beer money.
sold calls for $0.45, nets $0.15+ on the strangle
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,626
  • May 15, 2014 9:11am May 15, 2014 9:11am
Quoting The Fool
WMT has got a chart with decent action. Should see $79.00 pinned Thursday...... {image} {image}
ooh, premarket release, drops 2%, same KSS, maybe JCP too? JCP already down 4%+, ER after close.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,627
  • May 15, 2014 9:15am May 15, 2014 9:15am
Quoting njr
{quote} Hey TF - I'm with you on that :-) Could be another nice down down today.....Hopefully vol also picks up and we can get some richer premium.....
so far, so good!
  • #3,628
  • May 15, 2014 9:26am May 15, 2014 9:26am
Quoting njr
{quote} Could be another nice down down today.....Hopefully vol also picks up and we can get some richer premium.....
yes. I am looking at selling long bond calls (via TLT)....maybe I better wait? The trend is your friend? He who pick bottom have smelly finga?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,629
  • May 15, 2014 9:48am May 15, 2014 9:48am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yes. I am looking at selling long bond calls (via TLT)....maybe I better wait? The trend is your friend? He who pick bottom have smelly finga? {image}
That be me today.
I think I need some time off LOL. Too many positions...I'm exhausted.
Looks though like sell in May started yesterday.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,630
  • May 15, 2014 9:56am May 15, 2014 9:56am
Rick.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video...o%7c&par=yahoo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,631
  • May 15, 2014 10:34am May 15, 2014 10:34am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yes. I am looking at selling long bond calls (via TLT)....maybe I better wait? The trend is your friend? He who pick bottom have smelly finga? {image}
lol - I agree that trend is your friend. For me the question is 'will the upward trend we've been in continue or is this the start of a new downward trend?' I've just sold a bunch of June 30 puts.... If the upward trend continues, I'll close my positions earlier for 50-75% profit. If this is a bigger downward trend, my positions are deep OTM so they should still be fine....
  • #3,632
  • May 15, 2014 10:47am May 15, 2014 10:47am
$4 ng last seen about 1/9/14, then UNG saw years low of $19.47. NG jumped today, but could be the last chance to get in short side for a summer dip...

UNG Jul $20 puts are only $0.10....

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video...o%7c&par=yahoo

"traders are saying if we continue to see more build over the next couple of weeks, during this catch-up period, we could see $4 nat gas again. so all eyes will be on that."

..man I wish I was a trader - that's the life!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,633
  • May 15, 2014 10:53am May 15, 2014 10:53am
Quoting njr
{quote} I've just sold a bunch of June 30 puts.... If the upward trend continues, I'll close my positions earlier for 50-75% profit. If this is a bigger downward trend, my positions are deep OTM so they should still be fine....
you sold 6/30 TLT puts? or 5/30...or..?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,634
  • May 15, 2014 11:08am May 15, 2014 11:08am
Quoting Cecil Gee
new trade on GDX, I'VE GONE LONG $23.50 puts on GDX for 7c or $7 per contract. GDX is struggling to move above $24 atm plus the put option is cheap GDX May 2014 23.500 put (GDX140517P00023500) -OPR 0.07 {image} 0.06(46.15%) 15:35
wasn't expecting this but my GDX put has been revived, it expires tomorrow so hopefully GDX could get below 23.50 and head towards 23$ to make it worth while
  • #3,635
  • May 15, 2014 11:12am May 15, 2014 11:12am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} wasn't expecting this but my GDX put has been revived, it expires tomorrow so hopefully GDX could get below 23.50 and head towards 23$ to make it worth while
cool when that happens, huh? I have a couple things expiring tomorrow that will go itm at the last minute if we can have another big riskoff day.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,636
  • May 15, 2014 11:20am May 15, 2014 11:20am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} cool when that happens, huh? I have a couple things expiring tomorrow that will go itm at the last minute if we can have another big riskoff day.
Facebook may be a beauty as a one expiry for $57 put only if it opens below 57.80 tomorrow
  • #3,637
  • May 15, 2014 11:21am May 15, 2014 11:21am
Quoting The Fool
UNG Jul $20 puts are only $0.10....
I bought some for $0.07! ...looking at selling June 6 $22.5 for $0.05, but will prolly wait
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,638
  • May 15, 2014 11:46am May 15, 2014 11:46am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Facebook may be a beauty as a one expiry for $57 put only if it opens below 57.80 tomorrow
CSCO ER was not that great, I won't be surprised to see it slide back < $24 by tomorrow. 5/17 $24p is $.05......sliding now to $24.32....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,639
  • May 15, 2014 12:01pm May 15, 2014 12:01pm
Uh, OK. NBG shares < $3.00 today, down 15% on big volume. Rats jumping sinking ship, but not me! I have what is now an embarrassing number of the 1/16 $7 calls - they've dipped to $0.10/$0.11 today. Let's buy some more!

http://247wallst.com/banking-finance...upgrade-by-sp/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,640
  • May 15, 2014 12:05pm May 15, 2014 12:05pm
started in on a new spread here, TBT Sep $70 calls for $0.85, with shares @ $61.10 +/-....

TBT is the inverse companion of TLT:

Fund Summary
The investment seeks daily investment results that correspond to two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily performance of the Barclays U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index. The fund invests in derivatives that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should have similar daily return characteristics as two times the inverse (-2x) of the daily return of the index. The index includes all publicly issued, U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than 20 years, are non-convertible, are denominated in U.S. dollars, are rated investment grade, are fixed rate, and have more than $250 million par outstanding. The fund is non-diversified.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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