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  • #3,601
  • May 14, 2014 1:29pm May 14, 2014 1:29pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Nice calendar, thanks.
De Nada. Are you still a bond bull, BW?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,602
  • May 14, 2014 1:41pm May 14, 2014 1:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} De Nada. Are you still a bond bull, BW?
I can see a case for higher 30 year bonds, TF, but the timing is a lot, lot more difficult from where we are now. The bull case for bonds (30 years) was pretty good when yields were at 4% and TLT at 102, but we've come a long way since then, with TLT now at 112. I still see the possibility that we can make a measured move on TLT to about the 117/118 area but I'm not going to bet on it, at least not from here. TBH I am actually tactically short bonds ATM but that's a short-term play, depending on how the technicals pan out. By short I mean short ZB calls, which if you have your IB account you can now do also . I think USDJPY has a decent chance of some runup from here also, although I believe that's more correlated to shorter term rates - 2yrs, 5yrs etc.

Btw came across this article the other day: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...ere-s-why.html
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,603
  • May 14, 2014 1:47pm May 14, 2014 1:47pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Explode as in up, or down?
I'm thinking up, but to be safe I will enter a strangle to be safe and 3 months out
  • #3,604
  • May 14, 2014 2:08pm May 14, 2014 2:08pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm thinking up, but to be safe I will enter a strangle to be safe and 3 months out
I thought that was what you meant (and I think up too) but I saw you were long GDX puts. And I thought, er, that doesn't make sense. How can you be very bullish gold but bearish GDX?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,605
  • May 14, 2014 2:18pm May 14, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I thought that was what you meant (and I think up too) but I saw you were long GDX puts. And I thought, er, that doesn't make sense. How can you be very bullish gold but bearish GDX?
It was just a try at a drop by this week's expiry.

Not sure what came across there a bit ago made the indices drop?

Anyway, I might take a punt on a CSCO strangle, see it was downgraded by Barclays, will wait til just before the bell....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,606
  • May 14, 2014 2:24pm May 14, 2014 2:24pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Not sure what came across there a bit ago made the indices drop?
At the moment I think it's a bear trap but if it falls any further it's probably not a trap.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,607
  • May 14, 2014 2:29pm May 14, 2014 2:29pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} The bull case for bonds (30 years) was pretty good when yields were at 4% and TLT at 102, but we've come a long way since then, with TLT now at 112. I still see the possibility that we can make a measured move on TLT to about the 117/118 area but I'm not going to bet on it, at least not from here. TBH I am actually tactically short bonds ATM
Many think bonds have room to run...

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video...o%7c&par=yahoo

Yep I saw the article on the short supply of long bonds. A lot was made of that by various board denizens, as the article was closely followed by a 30 yr auction with one of the weakest bid-to-cover rates in years. And I got sucked in there thinking they were turning down. Will pay for that. But I am spread six ways to til Sunday on TLT/TBT anyway, so I just like to see things move....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,608
  • May 14, 2014 2:43pm May 14, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Many think bonds have room to run... http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video...o%7c&par=yahoo Yep I saw the article on the short supply of long bonds. A lot was made of that by various board denizens, as the article was closely followed by a 30 yr auction with one of the weakest bid-to-cover rates in years. And I got sucked in there thinking they were turning down. Will pay for that. But I am spread six ways to til Sunday on TLT/TBT anyway, so I just like to see things move....
Well TBH these kinds of articles have a funny habit of coming out at the end of a big move.
It wouldn't surprise me if bonds have formed an intermediate high here. So you might just be a little bit "early".
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,609
  • May 14, 2014 3:03pm May 14, 2014 3:03pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} It wouldn't surprise me if bonds have formed an intermediate high here. So you might just be a little bit "early".
Yeah, that's my specialty. In fact, at the start of today, I was imbalanced short equities AND bonds, and was hoping to get better positioned. As luck would have it, the S&P dropped and helped me out and I'm only slightly worse off in bond spreads.

Took the CSCO punt: 5/17 $24c - $0.12; 5/23 $21.50p - $0.16, net debit $0.28. CSCO closed @22.81. I need beer money.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,610
  • May 14, 2014 3:07pm May 14, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I thought that was what you meant (and I think up too) but I saw you were long GDX puts. And I thought, er, that doesn't make sense. How can you be very bullish gold but bearish GDX?
still holding that trade, it was cheap to take but will probably expire worthless, was hoping to make a quick gain
  • #3,611
  • May 14, 2014 3:13pm May 14, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Took the CSCO punt: 5/17 $24c - $0.12; 5/23 $21.50p - $0.16, net debit $0.28. CSCO closed @22.81. I need beer money.
CSCO up a buck now, crossing fingers for $24+. My thought on the diagonal was I would get a long spike >$24 for fat profit in the next 1-2 days and then a fall back for maybe a shot at the other end by next week. Miracles do happen....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,612
  • May 14, 2014 3:18pm May 14, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} still holding that trade, it was cheap to take but will probably expire worthless, was hoping to make a quick gain
Fair enough. Anyway, I'm short GDX puts.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,613
  • May 14, 2014 3:19pm May 14, 2014 3:19pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} CSCO up a buck now, crossing fingers for $24+. My thought on the diagonal was I would get a long spike >$24 for fat profit in the next 1-2 days and then a fall back for maybe a shot at the other end by next week. Miracles do happen....
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,614
  • May 14, 2014 3:22pm May 14, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yeah, that's my specialty. In fact, at the start of today, I was imbalanced short equities AND bonds, and was hoping to get better positioned. As luck would have it, the S&P dropped and helped me out and I'm only slightly worse off in bond spreads. Took the CSCO punt: 5/17 $24c - $0.12; 5/23 $21.50p - $0.16, net debit $0.28. CSCO closed @22.81. I need beer money.
I got spanked today in ES. I don't know why I trade it. I may as well flip a coin - it has to be my worst trading instrument out of the lot. Every time I think it's going up it goes down, and vice versa. I think they're reading my mind with radio waves....where's that tinfoil hat....
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,615
  • May 14, 2014 3:30pm May 14, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I got spanked today in ES. I don't know why I trade it. I may as well flip a coin - it has to be my worst trading instrument out of the lot. Every time I think it's going up it goes down, and vice versa. I think they're reading my mind with radio waves....where's that tinfoil hat....
well the shit has been hemmed in sideways m/l 1850-1880 for last 2-3 months, you could grow old waiting for decent moves, better to be a seller. I myself am always spreading, so at least when I do get out of balance my losses are small. As is stands right now I gain about $100/point short, so the last 90 minutes made me smile today....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,616
  • May 14, 2014 3:33pm May 14, 2014 3:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} CSCO up a buck now, crossing fingers for $24+. My thought on the diagonal was I would get a long spike >$24 for fat profit in the next 1-2 days and then a fall back for maybe a shot at the other end by next week. Miracles do happen....
CSCO up, but not enough. The conference call underway, maybe they can dress it up. If I can get anything solid at tomorrow's open, I will take it - it doesn't pay to vacillate on these scalps, usually....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,617
  • May 14, 2014 3:40pm May 14, 2014 3:40pm
Quoting The Fool
another one I missed, VIPS, just found it researching DANG. $5 to $180 in <18 months. June $85/$95 put spread $1.20/$1.75, nets $0.55. ($90/$100 - $0.75; $95/$105 - $1.05)....VIPS ER is 5/14. {image} {image}
VIPS up 11%+ AH, to $167. One to consider fading...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,618
  • May 14, 2014 3:41pm May 14, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} CSCO up, but not enough. The conference call underway, maybe they can dress it up. ....
me likey, CSCO looking for $25....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #3,619
  • May 14, 2014 4:09pm May 14, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} better to be a seller
a seller of premium, or a seller of the underlying?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,620
  • May 14, 2014 6:31pm May 14, 2014 6:31pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} a seller of premium, or a seller of the underlying?
Selling premium, what there might be to find...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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