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NZD/USD

  • #5,241
  • May 14, 2014 3:28pm May 14, 2014 3:28pm
Anyone think today's budget could take us to .87?
  • #5,242
  • May 14, 2014 3:39pm May 14, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting zen252
Anyone think today's budget could take us to .87?
If the budget is good. It reached 0.86777. 0.87 is just 20+ pips away. It's nothing if it really wants to move.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #5,243
  • May 14, 2014 4:23pm May 14, 2014 4:23pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} If the budget is good. It reached 0.86777. 0.87 is just 20+ pips away. It's nothing if it really wants to move.

That's true... it's gone very quiet on this board... no body prepared to really give their opinion on where this is heading.
  • #5,244
  • May 14, 2014 4:35pm May 14, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting zen252
{quote} That's true... it's gone very quiet on this board... no body prepared to really give their opinion on where this is heading.
The two things to balance here are the following:

Positive for NZDUSD: Carry. Right now with 10y UST at 2.543, the whole world is striving for yield. Think of anything with yield and its probably bid at the moment (barring some random EM countries). If US CPI comes in under expectation tomorrow, 10y has a shot at tightening to 2.5 which will absolutely boost NZDUSD's attractiveness as a yield play alone.

Negative for NZDUSD: Wheeler. RBNZ doesn't want a higher exchange rate. Obviously, the amount of resources (vs simple statements) they can employ is questionable and the market WILL test him barring any uptick in US data/economics. This is a wildcard and will generate significant volatility (vs. what a typical carry + trade in a low vol/frothy environment would typically hold).

In the near term (aka for the next week), everything will come down to global yields.

My position is obviously public (Long in size NZD with targets >.87) to start.
  • #5,245
  • May 14, 2014 4:48pm May 14, 2014 4:48pm
Hi
I only trade technicals .1) I see the next bullish target as the previous pivot on a daily chart. 2) 4 hour chart show a clear fib retracement to the 61.8 .
3) Pivot occured at the bottom of the Daily Channel . so my target is about 110 pips away.
Happy Trading
  • #5,246
  • May 14, 2014 10:56pm May 14, 2014 10:56pm
Quoting Fredv
Hi I only trade technicals .1) I see the next bullish target as the previous pivot on a daily chart. 2) 4 hour chart show a clear fib retracement to the 61.8 . 3) Pivot occured at the bottom of the Daily Channel . so my target is about 110 pips away. Happy Trading
Looks bullish to me too. I'm short Nz/Au
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #5,247
  • May 15, 2014 12:04am May 15, 2014 12:04am
Big move is coming

I will personally hedge this one...
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #5,248
  • May 15, 2014 12:22am May 15, 2014 12:22am
Will see price in blue zone
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  • #5,249
  • May 15, 2014 12:31am May 15, 2014 12:31am
Quoting santuary123
Will see price in blue zone {image}
The first blue zone probably, the higher second one, i think not,yet.I have a sell order which must be takeprofited.I expect the NZD/USD to reach the top level of the range next week probably.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #5,250
  • May 15, 2014 12:51am May 15, 2014 12:51am
Yup its getting clearer and clearer,it will go up , no doubt so my sell order will be a loser, so i will just wait if the price will retrace to a slightly better place to close my loser, or if it will jump to the next target i will close the loser and add more position to the winner.
Sort of revenge trade, but it will be ok
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #5,251
  • Edited 5:30am May 15, 2014 2:46am | Edited 5:30am
Quoting Spik
Getting to 0,8685-0,8705 would be a great place for adding shorts. Let's see if we get there. Bulls should be warned that this spike up to high 0,86XXs is not new uptrend but just "short-reloader" as i like to say.

So, we got to the high 0,86XXs, my shorts order @0,8691 got hit; 6 lots; TP 0,8531 (1/3), 0,8516 (1/3), 0,8501 (1/3), SL 0,8741. I’m in with 12 lots now, average 0,8711.
  • #5,252
  • May 15, 2014 3:08am May 15, 2014 3:08am
Quoting mahras
{quote} The two things to balance here are the following: Positive for NZDUSD: Carry. Right now with 10y UST at 2.543, the whole world is striving for yield. Think of anything with yield and its probably bid at the moment (barring some random EM countries). If US CPI comes in under expectation tomorrow, 10y has a shot at tightening to 2.5 which will absolutely boost NZDUSD's attractiveness as a yield play alone. Negative for NZDUSD: Wheeler. RBNZ doesn't want a higher exchange rate. Obviously, the amount of resources (vs simple statements) they...
Trimmed my position at .8675. Was 6 pips away from a partial target at .8699 but the price action at the top was worrisome.
Have taken a short UJ position at 102.04 area as IMO that is an intraday better bet for a bond rally (Japan's strong GDP number doesn't hurt either). Hearing chatter that the bounce was due to positioning so I would expect a possible retrace to <101.7 levels.

Happy trading gents.
  • #5,253
  • May 15, 2014 3:11am May 15, 2014 3:11am
Wow fast market. Position went in the money as I was typing that. Should be an interesting session. LETS GO.
  • #5,254
  • May 15, 2014 3:46am May 15, 2014 3:46am
what about the annual budget is it positive or negative for nzd
  • #5,255
  • May 15, 2014 4:35am May 15, 2014 4:35am
Added more shorts at 8700 as think most of the profit taking has been completed and price seems to be starting turn over. More conservative could wait to will break through the 8600 area.

For longs I would consider the RBNZ standing ready to fight any NZD strength by adjusting the rate expectations the market has priced in as a good sign the uptrend may have finished.
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  • #5,256
  • May 15, 2014 5:26am May 15, 2014 5:26am
Guys, NZD USD is topped out, this is confirmed by COT index data, all LONG positions are maxed out already. The only way to proceed - short sell.

Also wanted to take a sec to apologize for insulting eqshack, he's obvioulsy a great trader and picked NU top before many traders did. Congrats on your trade, EQSHACK. sorry about that bro.
  • #5,257
  • May 15, 2014 5:40am May 15, 2014 5:40am
Quoting Repsaj
NZDUSD Daily.- It is a long term correction, so it can fit many possibilities during the cruise. {image}
Ruffryders, you forget it's futurologist Repsaj
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Check your emotions. How are you?
  • #5,258
  • May 15, 2014 6:22am May 15, 2014 6:22am
Quoting Repsaj
{quote} Ruffryders, you forget it's futurologist Repsaj {image}
Yeah, good one, posted this also in my own thread a week ago. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...34#post7457034
  • #5,259
  • May 15, 2014 6:27am May 15, 2014 6:27am
NZDJPY weekly chart show divergence.
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  • #5,260
  • May 15, 2014 9:15am May 15, 2014 9:15am
NZDUSD - another Sell in May and ...........................................................................................$ !
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