Do you believe this market is random?

yes, we're on exactly the same page, the need to quantify everything in trading leads most traders to their downfall, its gambling, you need luck and to trade in a way that puts the odds and probabilities in your favour, there are a few options to do that and the'yre nothing new.

I want to add to this by saying that most low RR methods are just harder to trade because when the inevitable losing streak comes the psychological damage is huge as you see large chunks being taken out from your account continuously.

possibly, i'm not sure we we're discussing RR though? that's another discussion altogether and there are pro's and con's to low and high RR trading. I personally trade both, a long term trending strat that has a low win rate and high RR and a higher win rate strat that has low RR, they are both suited to the two common market conditions, range and trend. Again, im 50/50

AS for pysche, we do not have to be slaves to our emotions, we can feel and not act, it's just a case of being aware of why you feel something and then rationalizing those feelings.

I believe one of the killer punches for many retail traders is closing there minds to possibilities outside ones pre programmed beliefs.regardless as to random or not ,to have a some what open mind and investigate other approaches can lead to discoveries or alternative ways of perception.

There are moments in this market which could nor be called random .however we define the word.but if ones mind is not open to such possibilities you will remain blind to them.as an example my most rewarding scalps are taken from watching the value changes of selective pairs without a chart being open.all though these types of trades have become fewer they still present themselves.the market is supposed to be efficient ,for the most part i would believe that to be true ..but not all the time................

A guitar consist of only 6 finite strings.

6 finite strings can create an infinite amount of music (tunes, rhythms and beats)

Any market consist of only 36 finite combinations

36 finite combinations can create an infinite market movements.

With an infinite market outcomes in front of a subjective mind,

it appears to produce randomness as well as non-randomness to the viewer.

Despite any subjective opinion;

Any chart (Anything) has an underlying structure, foundation or matrix that it is built upon.

This is an objective fact. It is not a subjective opinion.

You are absolutely right!

It is everything inside the chaos. Try again, it is order inside chaos. Now the question is, when do this order appear? And the answer is: look at the flock.

it is not inside the chaos: the particular kind of structure and its complexity is what makes it to seem random but it is not; chaos is an external element that might occur or might not, but even when chaos comes up it has just the effect of a peeble in the ocean.
Nothing is casual but to each action corresponds a reaction.

36 finite combinations ? I thought it was only up or down...

LoL. It's just funny reading this I had to comment lol. Yes it only go up or down but there are more "random combination like currency strength and pip movement up and down ..like how HIGH up and how LOW down..."

The market random does have a underlying structure. Which is "supply and demand" but because million random playing this, now matter how you long you back test. You can not average to the point where you can YUP the market ONLY RANGE 200 pip.... for now and forever. For all you can know one random day . BAM it range 1000 pip... (yes it has already happened quite a few time... Euro 1.3000 to 1.40000....

Even Warren Buffett admit that inorder for him to make money, the market has to be "inefficient (meaning random at random time) " because if it was "efficient everyone will just play the range forever buy low sell high at exact price he won't make money...

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Abstract note in relation go the guitar example..post earlier.. :

Even though the guitar can play infinitely ammount of random music.

BUT, once you CREATE or get a hand on 1 ONE-hit-WONDER song... you can use that 1 -onehitwonder song - and make LOTS OF MONEY!!!


In forex we call one hit wonder ==> The Trading system

So we don't have to actually "really get all the movement in forex exactly right.. we just need to predict the SAME movement exactly MOST of the time. Then you will be rich...

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Of course just because you profit or able to get the same 1 movement right ALL THE TIME doesn't mean the market is NOT RANDOM ...

You still miss out UNLIMITED OTHER movement Probability due the the fact that no one can play unlimited of song.. even the great.. Mozart can't play every song .. but surely he know how to play HIS SONG WELL.

Which lead to the the #1 reason why many forex factory system the AUTHOR of the system is really the only person who can actually play it well and ..make money because its' HIS SONG while the author's FAN/follower worshiper can't even come close...to the author success...

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One fun fact because of the guitar example I thought it's funny how : Some people call forex is an "art which is music"

And one guy talking about guitar (tool to play) instrument.. remind me of "Forex it self is an instrument (tool to play")

I am just saying maybe the 1st person who invent forex... really know everything about forex...so he name...forex as "instrument"

http://www.investopedia.com/universi...nstruments.asp

There is perfect order in the market as is the universe. If you look at a wood grained door marks you will see it has similar wave sequences. It took my 3 years to see the market clear without indicators. It's all M and W patterns sometimes more M's in downtrend and more W's in an uptrend. My suggestion is watch a simulator playback of the market for hours per day and weekend which will speed up your learning curve.

With regard to this point, I think it has to do with Asian prices granger causing London and US prices and London prices granger causing US prices... Intraday double-tops(or bottoms) usually is just the big money/US/London trading selling (or buying) at prices previous traders already sold (bought) at.

Not considering Major Fundamental events, which impact is well-known, market movement is random, cuz numerous factors have effect on it which can't be known and analyzed simultaneously.

I personally don't!
I Was just waiting for this moment, to go short on Dax ...

if everyone believes they can read the perfect order in the market then are they winning every trade? if not, why not?

Your Trade also could take the other direction.
Sorry.
Why show us 75% of the posts only successful trades? Although 95% of traders lose?

The Internet is full of lies!
Specially forums.
Especially FX forums.

Trading is much easier than 95% of people think.

It's easy because of experience. Just like anything if you stick with it for a long time you will become better at what you do.

However, in the mean time lot of people still struggle to be successful in forex. When you see thousand of system on forex factory claim to be simple/easy but the instruction to play the system is over 30-1000 post of tweaks setting. You know there is something wrong with that picture.

I have watched a video title : Barry Schwartz: The paradox of choice
To summarize the video main point so that way people don't have to waste time:
In Schwartz's estimation, choice has made us not freer but more paralyzed, not happier but more dissatisfied.

Example: If you go to In-N-Out burger you only get Little choice: 1) hamburger 2) Hamburger + cheese 3) Double Double (2 meat + 1 cheese).
You have no choice but to pick one of the 3 option. You will not have a hard time choosing your food.

However, if you go to a restaurant where the menu have over 100 dish ... you would take forever to choose IF YOU actually read all 100 dish. Many people just like "whatever i'll just pick...from these top 20 i read ". So result the dish they pick might end up NOT taste good. So they are DISSATISFIED that they didn't take the time to read all 100 dish. However because human nature too many choice PARALYZED them on what to choose for the "best outcome"

So Now you get the idea of more choice = MORE PARALYZED. Let's look at just forex factory thousand of system alone... Newbies would be paralyzed of don't know which system to start testing. We are not even talking about thousands of trading books written by successful trade master.

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To wrap thing up. There are so many resource out there self learning is just very very hard. Guidance is needed like as you go school to become an engineer. Your professor teach you to become an engineer... You think you can just read all the engineer book in the world and you will be fine? Yes you will be fine but you won't read all the book because of the "More choice = more paralyze " reason.

I learn alot good stuff over time from many people, book, website, strategy from many trading system (even the commercial one too). It's definitely not easy doing those thing.

But in 5 year... I have acquire enough knowledge and experience to say:

Yes Trading is much easier than 95% people think.

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All I can say to the newbie who read this is: If some one don't guide you, are you just going to sit there and do nothing? Are you going to wait for the teacher to teach you how to be a great trader? Yes if you have money maybe the wait will be quick... If you don't have money like many people do, what will you do if no one willing to hold your hand?
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Extra note: If only people can just accept the fact that you really only have 2 option in forex: A) Buy (with proper risk mm) or B) Sell (with proper risk mm)
Result would be random no matter how you look at it no there is no system that know the future exactly. And you should just assume that when your take profit hit. You should be HAPPY because you were lucky you do little to none analysis you make make an order and lucky you win!!
Instead of the easy way 2 choice . People want to make thing harder on themselves by choosing the "market is not random so I will try to predict the market because you think you are the destine one".

And today we had a very narrow day!
Which you all a nice weekend.
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http://silvatradingen.wordpress.com/
"It is not enough to have a good mind. The main thing is to use it well." (Rene Descartes)

What is your definition of random? If you think charts are chaotic then the market isn't random. Just look at how well strong levels of support and resistance forms and are respected with a high frequency. If the market would have been random strong levels of support or resistance, strong trend lines would be rare. As long as strong levels will be formed it will be possible to make a profit with technical analysis alone (if one day charts will be more chaotic and support and resistance wouldn't form with the high frequency it currently forms then it won't be possible anymore to make a profit with technical analysis). I don't watch small time frames like 1 minute or 5 minutes. It's possible that they are more chaotic but on 4hr and above I see all the time strong levels of support and resistance and price reacting to them a lot of times. However there is no such thing as 100% probability for price to go in a specific direction. So if someone thinks price is random because he can't be 100% sure price will go in a direction he is correct. If someone thinks that forex is random because it is impossible to win then he is wrong (but if the charts would have been chaotic then he would be correct again, in a chaotic chart you can't make any analysis). The price can be predicted in some cases with a high probability but that probability will never be 100%. Is forex gambling? Yes, it is. But this doesn't mean you can't make profit just because you don't know 100% where price is going. Many people think gambling means you can't win, but gambling means only you can't make estimations with 100% probability but you can have positive expectation.

Human beings do not like to deal with uncertainty, especially when it comes to risk and money. Our brains do not want accept that the markets are random - you're just trading peoples future emotions.

SR levels are ignored as often as they are respected - the biggest magic trick the market does is in your own head, and it fools the majority day after day.