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Chinese yuan (USD/CNY)

  • #101
  • May 7, 2014 1:56am May 7, 2014 1:56am
from reuters:

USD/CNY was set in Asia on Tuesday at 6.1565 slightly higher than the previous 6.1560 fix. The OTC market traded a 6.2251-6.2426 range; last at 6.2257. USD/CNH last at 6.2254 - range 6.2224-6.2465.
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  • #102
  • May 8, 2014 5:38pm May 8, 2014 5:38pm
It’s official: China’s central bank was behind the Chinese yuan’s recent depreciation.

"According to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China, the central bank bought about 174 billion yuan worth of dollars in March...


http://online.wsj.com/media/yuan01.png



"The PBOC’s recent engineering of the depreciation of the yuan was part of a bid to drive out speculators and make the currency more of a two-way bet." source: Wall Street Journal
  • #103
  • May 10, 2014 7:46pm May 10, 2014 7:46pm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4902720140510

Coupled with technicals lining up USDCNY or USDCNH looks like a good short to me!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #104
  • May 13, 2014 12:30am May 13, 2014 12:30am
Found this on forexlive:

http://briefs.blpprofessional.com/vi...tor/index.html

Food for thought, but two objections: most charts only cover a short timespan, so what do they hide in the time before... and: what statistics are these charts based on and are they in any way reliable?

As we know, even those stats in the US or Europe are mostly wrong, have to be adjusted afterwards, etc.; Chinese stats: I just don't know.
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  • #105
  • May 13, 2014 2:32am May 13, 2014 2:32am
Quoting Rtm
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4902720140510 Coupled with technicals lining up USDCNY or USDCNH looks like a good short to me!
Not using a big economic stimulus most likely means that they will allow currency to depreciate like Japan did after climbing below 80 to the dollar. Currency weakened and stocks went up
  • #106
  • May 13, 2014 8:02am May 13, 2014 8:02am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Not using a big economic stimulus most likely means that they will allow currency to depreciate like Japan did after climbing below 80 to the dollar. Currency weakened and stocks went up
Makes sense as people wont want to invest into economy that isnt pumping right? Thank you for your reply
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #107
  • May 13, 2014 10:31am May 13, 2014 10:31am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Makes sense as people wont want to invest into economy that isnt pumping right? Thank you for your reply

I just oust got back from Hangzhou last week. Spent a week in China. as a shit load of factories closed up there that went under. There are many that are doing well but there are also a shit load of them closed up. The Canton fair also had very people show up this year.


I reckon the Yuan drops in the long term. Short term it may go up a bit. It went from 8.75 to around 6 to the dollar.
  • #108
  • May 13, 2014 10:35am May 13, 2014 10:35am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I just oust got back from Hangzhou last week. Spent a week in China. as a shit load of factories closed up there that went under. There are many that are doing well but there are also a shit load of them closed up. The Canton fair also had very people show up this year. I reckon the Yuan drops in the long term. Short term it may go up a bit. It went from 8.75 to around 6 to the dollar.
Interesting! I was thinking about a trip to Beijing this week to check out what it like!
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #109
  • May 14, 2014 7:01am May 14, 2014 7:01am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Interesting! I was thinking about a trip to Beijing this week to check out what it like!
I have never been to Beijing myself but been to many other cities outside of Beijing in China. I can say that long term the Yuan will drop. Today the news reported this as well.

http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2...t-year-redward
  • #110
  • May 14, 2014 11:15am May 14, 2014 11:15am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I have never been to Beijing myself but been to many other cities outside of Beijing in China. I can say that long term the Yuan will drop. Today the news reported this as well. http://www.businessweek.com/videos/2...t-year-redward
No worries, already made my money on short will look for lower 6.1 to buy this now though because I dont think you are wrong at all.
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All posts are my personal opinion
  • #111
  • Edited 8:09am May 16, 2014 1:49am | Edited 8:09am
From forexlive:
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/0...exchange-rate/

as well some other stuff to read: http://openmarkets.cmegroup.com/8257...rrency-markets
and: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...n-economy.html
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  • #112
  • May 16, 2014 8:18am May 16, 2014 8:18am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} No worries, already made my money on short will look for lower 6.1 to buy this now though because I dont think you are wrong at all. {image}
At 6-6.1 I would buy and short it. China has loan problems at their banks now. I don't see how their currency can appreciate as exports drop and as delinquent and unpaid loans rise.
  • #113
  • May 16, 2014 9:13am May 16, 2014 9:13am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} At 6-6.1 I would buy and short it. China has loan problems at their banks now. I don't see how their currency can appreciate as exports drop and as delinquent and unpaid loans rise.
It will be interesting to see if this pair reacts to technical factors well. At the moment I am very sceptical, it's even more at the mercy of their centralbank than other currencies. Furthermore I only have miserable spread and would have to check for swaps. But someday we all have to take the jump I guess.
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  • #114
  • May 28, 2014 1:29am May 28, 2014 1:29am
Time to have a look! If the top holds a lot of space below.

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and nice post:
Quoting Citiboy
Hate to say I told you so... hold your cards steady for the spike in rates. China is Holding Back The US Dollar (April 17th) http://trendersgame.com/2014/04/17/c...the-us-dollar/ FINANCIAL TIMES May 27, 2014 5:53 pm Look to China for reasons behind strong demand ...
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  • #115
  • May 28, 2014 6:30am May 28, 2014 6:30am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Time to have a look! If the top holds a lot of space below. {image} and nice post: {quote}
A matter of time only..
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  • #116
  • May 28, 2014 12:40pm May 28, 2014 12:40pm
The latest SSI data show that 91% of retail traders are short the USD/CNH currency pair which means they are long the Chinese yuan relative to the US dollar.

https://media.dailyfx.com/illustrati..._Picture_2.png


Since SSI is a contrarian indicator to price action, the fact that the majority of traders are short is a signal that USD/CNH may continue higher. The trading crowd has grown further net-short from yesterday and last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bullish trading bias.
  • #117
  • Jun 3, 2014 6:34pm Jun 3, 2014 6:34pm
Retail traders shorting USD/CNH might take confidence from news today that the US is increasingly using yuan to pay for goods from China.

"Although the corridor remains dominated by the U.S. dollar, data suggests that the [U.S.] is increasingly using the [yuan] to support its corporates that want to reach more suppliers in mainland China," said Michael Moon, Asian-Pacific head of payments at Swift. "This is good news for the internationalization of the [yuan] as a world payments currency."


source: http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/...-by-u-s-jumps/
  • #118
  • Jun 11, 2014 10:56am Jun 11, 2014 10:56am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Time to have a look! If the top holds a lot of space below. {image} and nice post: {quote}
Quoting stylinex
{quote} A matter of time only.. {image}
RT reports that "Diversifying trade accounts from dollars to the Chinese yuan and other Asian currencies such as the Hong Kong dollar and Singapore dollar has been a part of Russia’s pivot towards Asian as tension with Europe and the US remain strained over Russia’s action in Ukraine."
  • #119
  • Jun 11, 2014 11:05am Jun 11, 2014 11:05am
Quoting LarryDarrell
Time to have a look! If the top holds a lot of space below. {image} and nice post: {quote}
Still not trading it, but looks like 6.17 is a given....
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  • #120
  • Jun 18, 2014 4:43pm Jun 18, 2014 4:43pm
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