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AUD/USD

  • #77,301
  • May 13, 2014 11:20pm May 13, 2014 11:20pm
Quoting GeoTrade
Looking at the daily - I reckon we are going to .9460 minimum (April 10th high of the w3) - to close out current w5 of the larger impulse wave which started end of January, before we are going anywhere significant to the down side......... anyone else see this?
I trade what I think has an edge.Price can prove you/me wrong anytime.Price could go 9460-95-96 but I trade based on my experience
Harmonically key area to look is sweet spot 78.6-88.6 fibs as long as 9430 is not violated pattern is valid to me.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #77,302
  • May 13, 2014 11:23pm May 13, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting GeoTrade
{quote} I would love to learn more - don't you need a special program to calculate and identify the ratios? - do you have one? Are there any books you recommend on the subject?
http://www.harmonictrader.com/
download free ebook expert on harmonics by Scott Carney top left green color
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #77,303
  • May 13, 2014 11:26pm May 13, 2014 11:26pm
Quoting santuary123
yesterday my short AU got 30 pips.. Now already sell at 9394 will reload short if above 9400 For me this pair should fall soon on the back of stronger USD and weaker China data.. Here my view {image} {image}
why short now when u can short later, you can wait for the Bulls to calm down a little bit,

look at this chart, we were in a downtrend and upper line acted as a resistance, it was destroyed with lot of momentum, now were in a uptrend aiming for 0.94x - 0.95x, fundamentals are not working now but technicals.

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when this baby give some signs of weakening the shorting trade earnings will be used to buy a PS4 Titan Fall edition with some original games.
  • #77,304
  • May 13, 2014 11:27pm May 13, 2014 11:27pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I trade what I think has an edge.Price can prove you/me wrong anytime.Price could go 9460-95-96 but I trade based on my experience Harmonically key area to look is sweet spot 78.6-88.6 fibs as long as 9430 is not violated pattern is valid to me. {image}
Ahh - I see what you are saying - thanks for your reply.
Yes - I do recall reading that that 78.6 - 88.6% zone is key in trading fib retracements

Green pips to you!
  • #77,305
  • May 14, 2014 12:10am May 14, 2014 12:10am
Hello.
Sorry, what is the australian budget and in which way it influenze aud ?
  • #77,306
  • May 14, 2014 12:21am May 14, 2014 12:21am
eur/usd is about to fly high, this will take aud/usd with it,
im preparing to short at 0.9440 or what about waiting to 0.9600 ??

Australian Budget is very bullish to AUD.
  • #77,307
  • May 14, 2014 12:39am May 14, 2014 12:39am
AUD/USD bullish ended...moving towards .92XX...
  • #77,308
  • May 14, 2014 1:11am May 14, 2014 1:11am
Quoting abhinav23
AUD/USD bullish ended...moving towards .92XX...
your account will collapse if u go big against the trend.
  • #77,309
  • May 14, 2014 2:05am May 14, 2014 2:05am
I think AU will test 0.9677 before drop badly..
just opinion..
i'll put my sell limit there's
GL
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Forex as Leverage
  • #77,310
  • May 14, 2014 2:19am May 14, 2014 2:19am
Quoting Chanlie
I think AU will test 0.9677 before drop badly.. just opinion.. i'll put my sell limit there's GL {image}
as consequence
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Forex as Leverage
  • #77,311
  • May 14, 2014 5:09am May 14, 2014 5:09am
Quoting acidguy
{quote} why short now when u can short later, you can wait for the Bulls to calm down a little bit, look at this chart, we were in a downtrend and upper line acted as a resistance, it was destroyed with lot of momentum, now were in a uptrend aiming for 0.94x - 0.95x, fundamentals are not working now but technicals. {image} when this baby give some signs of weakening the shorting trade earnings will be used to buy a PS4 Titan Fall edition with some original games.
sorry for a long time to replyyes i can short later.. but i'm busy cant always see chart.. just can see chart in laptop/pc.. because that i'm always use limit sell for open trade, rarely manually.. so i set pending order below resistance on my fibo..sorry for my english is not good i use 2 fibo :1. fibo for last day (in 1H)2. fibo for last week (in 4H)here for fibo last week
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  • #77,312
  • Edited 6:53am May 14, 2014 5:16am | Edited 6:53am
I think the market has shown really clearly where the AUD/USD can get to as an extreme long for right now. I am NOT longing to it because the closer we get to it, the higher the probability of a turn to the south becomes.

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I've written very briefly about this:

Since I started trading live again, (just a few weeks), the AUD has had:

TWO weeks in a row of the highest highs of the week being about 80 pips above the weeks open
JUST LAST week it was a smudge over 100 (102 if I remember correctly...)
THIS WEEK a move up to .9467 would be 112 pips above the week's open.

Given what I've seen the last couple of weeks and what is currently developing, my opinion is this: The CLOSER we get to .9467, the riskier trading long is going to become.

I'm stacking shorts on the AUD/USD. I'm using 2.9% margin currently. Using 2.9% margin, the market has to move against my current position 8,391 pips LONG, or, up to 1.7790. (I think I'm safe from a margin call...) My other account, apparently not trade explorer friendly, is in terrible shape right now with the potential of a margin call at 5,432 pips north of here, or, 1.4827 (I think I'm safe from a margin call......)

With our current struggle to breach the .9400 level, equities running hot, and everyone seeming to get emotional about how far the AUD is gonna run, I see a GREAT opportunity to be contrarian and stay away from the hype and bank some pips in the process. The pullback happening right now is one of two things: proof we've been as high as we're going today or a prep to gain momentum to make a solid break of .9400.

Personal plan: if we've seen no significant drop and the AUD runs to the .9450 area, I'm adding a short which will bring my crap out point to a nearby 1.3039 (currently 30-40 weeks away given our current pace on weekly range btw... ) with potential to take as much as a 360 pip dump. My personal prediction is a drop from the 9460s totaling about 220 pips at absolute best.

Status on targets carried over to this week so far:

Attached Image


(you should have picked up on some sarcasm from reading this....)
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,313
  • May 14, 2014 5:52am May 14, 2014 5:52am
Quoting VaBikePacker
I think the market has shown really clearly where the AUD/USD can get to as an extreme long for right now. I am NOT longing to it because the closer we get to it, the higher the probability of a turn to the south becomes. {image} I've written very briefly about this: Since I started trading live again, (just a few weeks), the AUD has had: TWO weeks in a row of the highest highs of the week being about 80 pips above the weeks open JUST LAST week it was a smudge over 100 (102 if I remember correctly...) THIS WEEK a move up to .9467 would be 112 pips...
I am sorry about that. But, in my opinion, AUDUSD can not run long more than 28 May 2014. The drop will be quick, so your target 1.3039 will be seen in mid june at most. About the upside, even 9450 top is (imo) not possible. My short 9378 roughly, and can tank at most to 9480. Desperate situation too.
Don't blame the tools. Blame the carpenter.
  • #77,314
  • May 14, 2014 6:50am May 14, 2014 6:50am
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} I am sorry about that. But, in my opinion, AUDUSD can not run long more than 28 May 2014. The drop will be quick, so your target 1.3039 will be seen in mid june at most. About the upside, even 9450 top is (imo) not possible. My short 9378 roughly, and can tank at most to 9480. Desperate situation too.

1.3039 isn't a target. I'm a LONG way from desperate.....
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,315
  • May 14, 2014 6:55am May 14, 2014 6:55am
Can't stop good pair..
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #77,316
  • May 14, 2014 8:05am May 14, 2014 8:05am
Added one more short at 9404
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #77,317
  • May 14, 2014 8:06am May 14, 2014 8:06am
I am bullish for next 3 months, lets see...
All human being are Children of GOD - Thanking GOD for everything.
  • #77,318
  • May 14, 2014 8:11am May 14, 2014 8:11am
Quoting HedgeManager
I am bullish for next 3 months, lets see...
As you know price travels in zig zag shape. In three months we could have multiple ups and downs.My questing to you is will you bail out at 93? 92?
or continue stay course no matter.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #77,319
  • May 14, 2014 9:03am May 14, 2014 9:03am
I see no reason why AUDUSD shouldn't achieve my target of .9446 but I have not yet observed an entry that I am comfortable with either price level or price action. So far, no trade. I am still expecting more CAD weakness which often translates to AUD weakness. Something happening in the 9300 area would be nice. Best regards...

K.I.S.S.
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  • #77,320
  • May 14, 2014 9:07am May 14, 2014 9:07am
Quoting KissFan
I am still expecting more CAD weakness which often translates to AUD weakness. Best regards... K.I.S.S. {image}
I'd be glad to hear you expound on this. How you arrived at the idea, etc...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
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