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Is random really random? 231 replies

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Attachments: Do you believe this market is random?
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Do you believe this market is random?

Quoting Luther
{quote} Nothing is random in the market. People believe they have free will and original ideas, but nearly everything everyone says and does is highly predictable and incredibly boring. People think they're special and individual and love to hear themselves speak, no matter how mundane or tread worn their responses or ideas are. The truth is, the majority of thought never escapes the garbage in, garbage out syndrome which dominates human behavior. Humans are a product of their environment, their social training, and chemically/electromagnetically...
I agree with that statement 100 percent. I had to requote myself from a few days ago saying the exact same thing.

Quoting saneblane
{quote}All those things you said there are the reason why i have said that the chart in Forex is the biggest magic trick in the world.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} Get away from that crack pipe bud..
Don't give up hope.

Pussy plus time over income squared.

Inserted Video
Quoting Luther
{quote} Don't give up hope. Pussy plus time over income squared. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2F_LgV8YZo


Where is your TE curtain boy.. behind mommys skirt everyone is a star..

lol.. this is just too amusing.. who are these guys

I tell you what pumpkin.. whenever you could endure 20% loss on only a 25% hit rate then come back to talk to me.
of course the other explorer with positive 60% 6k up yo a s s should not be over looked.. you know why.. not bcz of the positive cash but bcz it's done with only 50% hit .. can u imagine what I can do with 60-70.. your little wifey would be knocking on my door.. lol.. oh stop it empire, he is just a kid.

so do me a favor, stick to your Egyptian magician bs in gypsy land, your in the wrong league pal.

I am out of here, tear yourself out now, lol.
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} whenever you could endure 20% loss on only a 25% hit rate then come back to talk to me.
Wow, 20% on a 25% hit rate? Man your stops must be tighter than all the virgins in the world combined. Lol Good luck trading, but I am impressed.
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
Quoting saneblane
{quote} Wow, 20% on a 25% hit rate? Man your stops must be tighter than all the virgins in the world combined. Lol Good luck trading me, but I am impressed.

stops are rather large but since your so eager I am on you Sandy.. lol
Passion, Persist, Patience, Protect
Quoting FXEmpire
{quote} stops are rather large but since your so eager I am on you Sandy.. lol
Stops are large? When I said good luck before I was kidding, but I really mean it now Lol, Interesting you call me Sandy I am from the caribbean after all, so i guess it's appropriate, heck I should have had fins i've been on the beach and in the water for most of my life . i'm not going to try and do the math on your system, I'm sure you know more about your system than I do. If your making bank then that's the most important thing I guess
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
The random/non-random debate is always a hot topic on FF, and trading forums in general. Half of it is semantics, and the other half is… well, who really gives a fuck.

Here is the bottom-line, folks:

No one cares about what any of us thinks – especially the market. We all have our own individualistic beliefs about what the market is, and how it functions. Having said that, I’d like to simplify this in the most basic of terms, and use language that I feel most (male) traders will understand.

Trading is not unlike masturbating. You do it by yourself, since it’s a very intimate ritual. And, in the end the only person who cares if you get off - is you.

So to translate that back into trading terms:

You have to trade by yourself, since it’s a very intimate ritual. You can believe that the market is random/non-random, use/not-use indicators, look at lunar cycles, pray at the church of Fibonacci, or insist that S/D is the key to the Holy Grail. In the end, the only person out there who cares about your P/L statement (whether you get off, or not) is you.

In short, these types of debates are a complete waste of everybody’s time. Instead, the guys making money should be placing trades, and the guys losing money should be demo trading.
Quoting mr.marketz
The random/non-random debate is always a hot topic on FF, and trading forums in general. Half of it is semantics, and the other half is… well, who really gives a fuck. Here is the bottom-line, folks: No one cares about what any of us thinks – especially the market. We all have our own individualistic beliefs about what the market is, and how it functions. Having said that, I’d like to simplify this in the most basic of terms, and use language that I feel most (male) traders will understand. Trading is not unlike masturbating. You do it by yourself,...
don't go and start a demo - live debate!

I guess all that time at the monitor alone you couldn't resist all the porn on offer
tradewith60
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} Hi Mr marketz, can you supply us with an example to explain what led you to your assumption?.
Hey 60,

Sorry man, totally missed this question. My obsession with pattern recognition eventually led me to combining a specific metric in combination with a specific market condition. And viola! Everything was instantly illuminated... that's really the best way I can articulate it. It was a divine experience.
Random? No; prices change for a reason. Whether or not they are predictable, however, is a far more complicated (and relevant) question.
No one can solve my post?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post7463913
mr.marketz?

@saneblane...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post7463949
How it is possible for you to say in the same post that any order could pop in at any second and yet it is not 50%/50%?
Did you really decided in what you will believe?
(reread...reread...reread...again)

And if the market goes 1 up...3 down, 7 up, 19 down, 3 up, 4 down, 1 up, 2 down, 8 up... then what to do??? When to enter, when to exit?
And that disorder is not the only problem, as I stated in my post mentioned above...
Quoting Legionary
No one can solve my post? http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post7463913 mr.marketz? @saneblane... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post7463949 How it is possible for you to say in the same post that any order could pop in at any second and yet it is not 50%/50%? Did you really decided in what you will believe? And if the market goes 1 up...3 down, 7 up, 19 down, 3 up, 4 down, 1 up, 2 down, 8 up... then what to do??? When to enter, when to exit? And that disorder is not the only problem,...

It's not literally any second, but orders do come in, however the market does have a way that it uses to determine if the price should go up or down, and trust me it's almost impossible to go against the machine. Some trader can see when orders come in and some can't it's how we deal with it that sets us apart.

Maybe you should ask me this question in my order flow trading thread, and I will try to better explain.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=484318
Being a trader is lonely, but being a great trader is lonelier still
Quoting Legionary
How it is possible for you to say in the same post that any order could pop in at any second and yet it is not 50%/50%?
It is not so much contradictory. It also depend on what is in the book at that time. A small order taking the last available lot will move the market to the next available price, while a big order not consuming all the offer won't make the market move at all.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} It is not so much contradictory. It also depend on what is in the book at that time. A small order taking the last available lot will move the market to the next available price, while a big order not consuming all the offer won't make the market move at all.
retail traders can never know that information anyway, even banks can only see what is on their order book, to a large extent they have to make assumptions and guesses too. At the end of the day the retail trader is giving himself a disadvantage by going to the market thinking he has a greater than 50/50 chance, even if his hit rate has been greater than 50% he has no way at all to guarantee it will be maintained. If on the other hand he accepts the uncertainty of his trades he is much more likely to utilize other techniques to insure he remains profitable and manages his risk sensibly.
tradewith60
Quoting Luther
{quote} Nothing is random in the market. People believe they have free will and original ideas, but nearly everything everyone says and does is highly predictable
That's about as good a summary as you'll ever see. Whatever happened to the liberal arts eh?
Quoting triphop
{quote} That's about as good a summary as you'll ever see. Whatever happened to the liberal arts eh?
Guy steps up to a golf tee...

Will the ball go left or right or straight? Have a guess

Well the ball went left./.. Was that random? No because he moved in a certain way and the laws of physics caused the ball to go the direction it went

Did you guess left>?

What about the reason the guy stepped up to the tee in the first place. It's pretty predictable that someone will step up to a golf tee.,.. In fact the whole process was precisely predictable and non random.

So why did you not guess correctly that Peter Smith from Evansdale drove to Richmond Lakes on Sunday morning for a game of golf, stepped up to the tee and hit the ball left? It was so non random. Like omg
like totally failure brah
are people really sure some is n't random?
if i was a Market marker i would definitely make sure some was random

especially as the house does nt like paying out, at all if possible
the big and smaller banks are competitors, not team mates, and its not all about shafting the little guy
more so the medium and smaller banks and traders, but who still have multi million pound / dollar positions
so the market can't or wont always be too repetitive as MMs also want their cash

sure alot of what we see is highly predictable, so cant be random,
but im sure at least 30% is
that still leaves 70% that's near enough tradeable with some accuracy (most of the time)
except when the randomness appears again (at any given moment)

FOMC and minutes for instance,
one month it goes up, the next down, sometimes at the same, S/R, but a different outcome
NFP is n't random (usually)
but some must be and a super computer or any old PC could easily generate a random pattern for any given day

for example its said, if there is 2bill of longs for the Euro at 7am on a given day and 1bill of shorts
the longs will be taken out before the longs retake control later on in the day, obviously by the Market makers as they can add as many counter positions at will by the flick of a switch or likely an Algo just does the work,
and as the direction and amount positions change day to day, so the market can do random (ish) things to take out the most contracts

some PA is n't random, its a statistical fact, and not essential that it is nt anyway to still make money
although front running and insider information is a better edge
I'd guess that everyone who posts here ( or anywhere else in ff) has entered a trade in the forex, or is going to. And they all do this at random.

Quoting simonb
{quote} Guy steps up to a golf tee... Will the ball go left or right or straight? Have a guess Well the ball went left./.. Was that random? No because he moved in a certain way and the laws of physics caused the ball to go the direction it went Did you guess left>? What about the reason the guy stepped up to the tee in the first place. It's pretty predictable that someone will step up to a golf tee.,.. In fact the whole process was precisely predictable and non random. So why did you not guess correctly that Peter Smith from Evansdale drove to Richmond...
you're kind of missing the point. We know what moves the market, I believe we're trying to ascertain if it's movement can be quantified or if we are better treating it as a straight 50/50 guessing game, if we have a win rate of 70%, what is to say that is not just the random ditribution or luck if you like?

For me I would need to see proof if it wasn't random, proof that the retail trader can use also, it's no good saying if you knew every single order at any time then you could know with almost 100% accuracy where the market is going, even then it seems almost impossible - theres a reason that algo's always have a human element to give it bias first, often changed daily....

I'm 50/50 on the whole argument, but... I trade with the mindset that my trades have as much chance of losing as winning, because I BELIEVE it is random....
tradewith60
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} you're kind of missing the point. We know what moves the market, I believe we're trying to ascertain if it's movement can be quantified or if we are better treating it as a straight 50/50 guessing game, if we have a win rate of 70%, what is to say that is not just the random ditribution or luck if you like? For me I would need to see proof if it wasn't random, proof that the retail trader can use also, it's no good saying if you knew every single order at any time then you could know with almost 100% accuracy where the market is going, even...
It's such an interesting debate and think your 50/50 stance on the topic is spot on...

To have a stance in the first place is taking a side. But I don't think it's so simple like left/right, wrong/right but rather a more 3 or 4 dimensional type thing. Let me explain..

Perhaps you have a 70% win rate... Whether that was luck or not no longer matters. What if you did indeed have an edge in the markets where your probability of success was 70%. But the only catch is that you didn't know WHEN that 70% would occur.

More so.. What if you knew that; 50% of the time you had a 70% chance of success and 50% of the time your probability was 50%... How would that change your mindset?

What if you knew without doubt that some day soon it will rain 80% harder than most other days as it's inevitable that this will happen. Just one catch.. You don't know precisely when. Just that it WILL inevitability happen.

There's no right or wrong in the random or non random debate as a solid case can be made for both. But are we really CORRECT when we predict correctly? or just LUCKY? I think that's what you're getting at. Well it doesn't matter in my view because it cannot truly be proved. At the end of the day I believe you simply need to SURVIVE long enough to see your day. That's where all the money management and over leveraging debates come in.

I read a post by WolfWicked who was suggesting to another trader to lower their expectations to allow for a 50% win rate. And I thought to myself at the time; Well why don't I just play roulette for a living. And then I realized that this was simply a safe measure to allow for that time, whether it be random or non random where the market WILL inevitably go against you. Just like it is inevitable that it will go WITH you.

Therefore it is a lot to do with survival. Whether you have a win rate of 10% or 90
like totally failure brah
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