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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #13,641
  • May 8, 2014 7:28pm May 8, 2014 7:28pm
Yep. GJ was trying to catch Nikkei. Nikkei returned to the Triangle trendline it broke and is currently dropping again. If Nikkei stays out of it GJ will follow further down. Below approximate 13800 is a free fall. However, like the last time Nikkei broke triangle also now it made a nice "W" on retracement, a classic sigh suggesting mid term trend change. I would say this Friday might be important in direction decision. Also, GU might finish with retracement and push GJ up. We'll see...
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  • #13,642
  • May 8, 2014 7:42pm May 8, 2014 7:42pm
There's a lot of stuff to get through between here and 171.3, but at the MOMENT it is suggesting a conservative downside target of about 170.5/7.

That figure is purely based on reversal pattern height 165 ish pips, applied to expected break out retest 172.2 ~ 172.3 (then subtract).

Subject, as usual, to change
  • #13,643
  • May 8, 2014 8:39pm May 8, 2014 8:39pm
Quoting Mpt
There's a lot of stuff to get through between here and 171.3, but at the MOMENT it is suggesting a conservative downside target of about 170.5/7. That figure is purely based on reversal pattern height 165 ish pips, applied to expected break out retest 172.2 ~ 172.3 (then subtract). Subject, as usual, to change
Those numbers seem valid to me. I see strong support at 171.1 area. However, looking at retracements on Weekly chart, it seems that most of retracements (500, 600, 1000 pips) were stopped by the proximity of 20 EMA (-50/+200 pips). Currently this level is 169.6 aproximatley. So I'll re-set my TP to 170.06. Of course I might be completely wrong, it looks like GU stopped with retracement
  • #13,644
  • May 8, 2014 9:02pm May 8, 2014 9:02pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} Those numbers seem valid to me. I see strong support at 171.1 area. However, looking at retracements on Weekly chart, it seems that most of retracements (500, 600, 1000 pips) were stopped by the proximity of 20 EMA (-50/+200 pips). Currently this level is 169.6 aproximatley. So I'll re-set my TP to 170.06. Of course I might be completely wrong, it looks like GU stopped with retracement
GU could possibly become a little interesting. At 1.692 it hit a resistance area (in this case read trend line) that - if you look very carefully - has held it up since near the bottom. Kind of the channel mid point. Now, if that breaks, I know other people EXPECT there to be buyers at 1.69 or 168.8. Now, if those buyers aren't there at 1.69, then they'll expect 1.688 to hold - it is, after all, the outer rising trendline. BUT, right at 1.688, the ichimoku cloud has a damned big hole in it, meaning support may be lacking. If so, cable may well fall - and there are implications for GJ. The wailing on the cable thread would be something to behold.
  • #13,645
  • May 9, 2014 6:54am May 9, 2014 6:54am
Quoting arunthegreat
Hi, this is Arun, I am new to this thread. I just want to post my views about this pair. GBP JPY This currency shows some sort of resistance developed in monthly chart. DAILY CHART : A double top formation, but in trend line support now . Wait for a breakout near 171.74 {image}
It broke the support and fell 80 pips .
Arun
  • #13,646
  • May 9, 2014 2:14pm May 9, 2014 2:14pm
My look on the market... Nikkei disappointed me, I expected a fall till 13870 area (that would bring JPY pairs down fast), but it didn't perform at all according to my expectations. The 4H/1D momentum however stayed stable, maybe even increased slightly. So move down on GJ was mostly contributed by the fall of GBP. GU at support, but with a Weekly Bearish Pin (this pin however is on top of trafic zone, so it might not get down a lot). GJ posted 2 week bearish pin, currently halted at major trendline and dynamic support, since we didn't brake it today I expect some retracement, therefore I closed all my (short) positions. EJ on Weekly closed under 20 EMA for the first time after many weeks, suggesting possible continuation of bearish trend, but I still expect some retracement. UJ is painting a sort of H&S formation on Weekly, but posting higher lows, I expect retracement up here as well. CJ posted almost a Doji on Wekly, with slight bullish bias, but general momentum decelerated to zero. AJ is very interesting on weekly, it made a Bullish outside bar suggesting move up, however it is painting lower lows and lower highs.

I will say farewell for some time from the forums, I observed that I still get influenced to much by how others analyze market... I need some time to build a stronger psychology and play my own analysis.
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  • #13,647
  • May 9, 2014 2:33pm May 9, 2014 2:33pm
Indigo: good luck

Everyone else (including Indigo): Have a great weekend!
I make it rain from the center of my Keytar
  • #13,648
  • May 11, 2014 3:16pm May 11, 2014 3:16pm
Just put in a limit order to buy at 171.40; this is right about where the uptrend line is on the daily chart.

Stop is 171.15.
  • #13,649
  • May 11, 2014 11:09pm May 11, 2014 11:09pm
exited long on this price action...maybe good entry for continuation of move down??
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  • #13,650
  • May 12, 2014 7:34am May 12, 2014 7:34am
Nice bullish bounce off horizontal and trend line support. Still have hope that the upside of the triangle will be blown through…perhaps this week. Bummer if not.
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There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #13,651
  • May 12, 2014 7:42am May 12, 2014 7:42am
@LG

Possibly...

Staying out atm
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  • #13,652
  • May 13, 2014 5:07am May 13, 2014 5:07am
Quoting lakhan
@LG Possibly... Staying out atm {image}
This thread has gone so quiet! Wish more people post their analysis.
  • #13,653
  • May 13, 2014 5:21am May 13, 2014 5:21am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} This thread has gone so quiet! Wish more people post their analysis.
Well, speaking just for me, my opinion has only been bolstered by recent price action. Guess all the fireworks one way or another are going to happen in the next 24-48 hours and we'll see what's up.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #13,654
  • May 13, 2014 5:38am May 13, 2014 5:38am
Quoting LizardGizzard
{quote} Well, speaking just for me, my opinion has only been bolstered by recent price action. Guess all the fireworks one way or another are going to happen in the next 24-48 hours and we'll see what's up.
Hopefully we see some movement soon, GJ in such tight range is unbelievable.
  • #13,655
  • May 13, 2014 11:26am May 13, 2014 11:26am
Hopefully with all the news tomorrow we get a final direction of either up or down...this range pattern is great for my scalping but long term it makes watching paint dry fun.
I make it rain from the center of my Keytar
  • #13,656
  • May 13, 2014 11:56am May 13, 2014 11:56am
Shooting star ? Resistanse at 172,500 and at my tringrl trend line I'm takeing a short here.
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  • #13,657
  • May 13, 2014 3:21pm May 13, 2014 3:21pm
Quoting BogiFX
Shooting star ? Resistanse at 172,500 and at my tringrl trend line I'm takeing a short here. {image} {image}
My perpective is a little different. I'm waiting for a long movement in order to accomplish the shark patter that is incomplet yet. Also I have defined a potential zone drawing more harmonic patterns. Right now we are completing the 5-0 Pattern.
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  • #13,658
  • May 13, 2014 3:57pm May 13, 2014 3:57pm
Quoting wind.rpha
{quote} My perpective is a little different. I'm waiting for a long movement in order to accomplish the shark patter that is incomplet yet. Also I have defined a potential zone drawing more harmonic patterns. Right now we are completing the 5-0 Pattern. {image}
  • #13,659
  • May 14, 2014 12:21am May 14, 2014 12:21am
Quoting BogiFX
{quote}
Will we test 173 again today ?
  • #13,660
  • May 14, 2014 1:12am May 14, 2014 1:12am
Only short today. It may test 171
Arun
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