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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #27,501
  • May 12, 2014 1:08pm May 12, 2014 1:08pm
Quoting nic73
I have here spotted this trade on Friday but I did not take it. I watched it forming on the 4hr and on the shorter TF, 15min to 1hr. Comments please. Thanks{image}{image}
I personally think it was not a good setup. But again I'm not the expert here. In my opinion you should only use the MACD on the 1H TF because like I said before the 21ema on the 4H corresponds to 89sma on the 1H ect....

Using the MACD on shorter TF's like the 30M gives to many false signals and the Moving averages on the 30M TF can't be compared to the 4H TF moving averages.

When you trade 1M, 5M, 15M, 30M TF's you don't need the Moving Averages and MACD. You go to the 4H TF and look at the Market Rhythm and then switch to the shorter TF's and look for patterns (DT's, sHs, pennants, flags ect...) to get in earlier with a smaller SL and Big TP.

Again...Only my opinion
  • #27,502
  • May 12, 2014 2:17pm May 12, 2014 2:17pm
Quoting LifesAbeach
{quote} I personally think it was not a good setup. But again I'm not the expert here. In my opinion you should only use the MACD on the 1H TF because like I said before the 21ema on the 4H corresponds to 89sma on the 1H ect.... Using the MACD on shorter TF's like the 30M gives to many false signals and the Moving averages on the 30M TF can't be compared to the 4H TF moving averages. When you trade 1M, 5M, 15M, 30M TF's you don't need the Moving Averages and MACD. You go to the 4H TF and look at the Market Rhythm and then switch to the shorter TF's...
There is definitely a cycle that traders go through.

I don really bother going below H1 any more...Maybe if i want to have a quick scalp trade just to satisfy my gambling gene and addiction

I am trying to go the other way and move up to the h4/daily and not worry about letting trades run...this is going to take a while to get to where i want to be at.

I got pissed off, thinking about how many trades i had missed on the lower time frames...it's just not worth it for me....

I suppose you can get a feel of how the price moves around the moving averages on lower time frames as it happens faster, that is a good learning tool..
  • #27,503
  • May 12, 2014 7:08pm May 12, 2014 7:08pm
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} There is definitely a cycle that traders go through. I don really bother going below H1 any more...Maybe if i want to have a quick scalp trade just to satisfy my gambling gene and addiction I am trying to go the other way and move up to the h4/daily and not worry about letting trades run...this is going to take a while to get to where i want to be at. I got pissed off, thinking about how many trades i had missed on the lower time frames...it's just not worth it for me.... I suppose you can get a feel of how the price moves around...
Hey LAB and Richard,

Thank you for commenting. I don't realise this trade was not a good setup. This is one area that bothers me, I don't know how exactly to identify good set up thus sometimes end up taking high risk trade. Studying the lessons is one thing but applying them is quite another thing.

I understand you comment about using shorter TF than the 1hr and agree and have looked back into the charts how high risk it is to trade on these TF.

Nicholas
  • #27,504
  • May 13, 2014 1:57am May 13, 2014 1:57am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hey LAB and Richard, Thank you for commenting. I don't realise this trade was not a good setup. This is one area that bothers me, I don't know how exactly to identify good set up thus sometimes end up taking high risk trade. Studying the lessons is one thing but applying them is quite another thing. I understand you comment about using shorter TF than the 1hr and agree and have looked back into the charts how high risk it is to trade on these TF. Nicholas
I need to post more charts and ideas, its the only way to learn...so keep posting your set ups.... only constructive reviews on this thread so keep posting..

I've no time this morning..

but look at the Aud/Usd is that going down to the 200/89 on the H4.... i think so....

So if i went down to m5/m15 i would be looking to sell on a RT for maximum profit and smallest stop loss....sell at the top of a swing high on the lower time frame.... that would be my plan....i have no idea if this is correct but it makes sense in my head and that is how i would trade it. Or the m5 would already be in the process of trending and you would sell off the bounce from the 8/21.
  • #27,505
  • Edited 3:23am May 13, 2014 3:09am | Edited 3:23am
Is GBPUSD going to continue moving downwards. For short? Have I analyzed the chart correctly?
Attached Image
  • #27,506
  • May 13, 2014 11:27am May 13, 2014 11:27am
Here's a trade I took today. First one in 3 weeks.

TC off 8ema which was a bit risky but the signal candle was a news candle of which the result was worse than expected for the EUR giving the down move a higher probability. Signal candle also an engulfing candle. The other reason was that price pulled back twice to the daily 89sma on the 4H TF.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,507
  • May 13, 2014 11:48am May 13, 2014 11:48am
Quoting nic73
Is GBPUSD going to continue moving downwards. For short? Have I analyzed the chart correctly?{image}
It looks like we might see some down movement. There is divergence on the daily and price currently below the 21ema.

Your chart looks good but just remember the 21 and 89 are close together so sometimes price moves up and down over here. But seems like today it didn't.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,508
  • May 13, 2014 2:19pm May 13, 2014 2:19pm
Quoting nic73
Is GBPUSD going to continue moving downwards. For short? Have I analyzed the chart correctly?{image}

Mate, that is it...

It went past the previous swing low and looks set to go to the 200 on the h4.

I see this as resistance area too...so it may bottom out there....


To be honest, it's a lovely move down and bounce off the 21...why didn't we all play it? hahaha too flooping easy...

I'm sure we make it much too complicated....just look for the bounces off the 21/8...a bloody child can do that ! So why can't I..
  • #27,509
  • May 13, 2014 2:52pm May 13, 2014 2:52pm
Quoting LifesAbeach
Here's a trade I took today. First one in 3 weeks. TC off 8ema which was a bit risky but the signal candle was a news candle of which the result was worse than expected for the EUR giving the down move a higher probability. Signal candle also an engulfing candle. The other reason was that price pulled back twice to the daily 89sma on the 4H TF. {image}


Nice trade especially after 3 weeks of non activity....

I was doing okay but have got myself in a pickle on a trade, got myself the wrong side of it and made the school boy error of adjusting my stop loss..

Now that 30 pip scalp trade has turned into a 4 day swing trade into the red !

No worries, it keeps me looking and learning.... it just stops me pulling the trigger in the direction of the short term trend as i don't like hedging, i'm just not comfortable with a buy/sell trade on the same currency.
  • #27,510
  • May 13, 2014 9:57pm May 13, 2014 9:57pm
I observed EURUSD and USDCHF are in "ladder" type of movement. Price stall for some time then moved with relatively huge bar up or down in sight. So when price move after stalling, can this be considered a breakout?
  • #27,511
  • May 14, 2014 1:13am May 14, 2014 1:13am
Quoting nic73
I observed EURUSD and USDCHF are in "ladder" type of movement. Price stall for some time then moved with relatively huge bar up or down in sight. So when price move after stalling, can this be considered a breakout?

My simple understanding of a breakout is when price has been consolidating (in a box or rectangle shape)

Then it breaks the top or bottom and moves on its way away from the consolidation area.

I could see a small bearish breakout on the H4 on the Euro...

But then the daily on both currencies are in some sort of consolidation area and both look ready to roll over as they are on the trendline...a breakout could be coming on either...

Nice call and one to watch....
  • #27,512
  • May 14, 2014 1:26am May 14, 2014 1:26am
Hi all,

Did this counter trend trade today on GBPUSD. Analysis within the chart. There were 2 other pairs EURUSD and USDCHF that formed Lower High or Higher Low respectively, on MACD but I only took GBPUSD. And it was on demo account. Happy with the profit I have taken and although I only captured about 38% of the total move (from entry to 21ema). In a counter trend trade, I consider every pip gained a bonus.

Question: With counter trend trade, is the chance of success higher with formation such at double top/bottom, round top/bottom?

And kindly leave you comments. We never stop learning, do we?

Finally, how do you guys like my dark background for the chart. Personally, I like it because it is less taxing to my eyes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Counter_Trend_GBPUSD_14.5.2014.png Size: 44 KB
  • #27,513
  • May 14, 2014 2:52am May 14, 2014 2:52am
Another chart here from AUDNZD. How would you have analyzed this chart, to trade or not to? For buy. My analysis is within the chart.

Value your input. Very, very much appreciated to the person who read or rely, in advance. Thank you very much.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZD_14.5.2014.png Size: 34 KB
  • #27,514
  • May 14, 2014 1:16pm May 14, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting nic73
Hi all, Did this counter trend trade today on GBPUSD. Analysis within the chart. There were 2 other pairs EURUSD and USDCHF that formed Lower High or Higher Low respectively, on MACD but I only took GBPUSD. And it was on demo account. Happy with the profit I have taken and although I only captured about 38% of the total move (from entry to 21ema). In a counter trend trade, I consider every pip gained a bonus. Question: With counter trend trade, is the chance of success higher with formation such at double top/bottom, round top/bottom? And kindly...

Black is okay, i used to use a green background as the white was too bright, but now i am back to white...

I should make all candles black with the background and just have the moving averages on....probably do better !

The classic counter trend...problem is if you try for counter trends with DB or RB etc... you are trying to pick tops and bottoms...

The TC trend continuation is where the large moves and easy pips are at.... but of course the markets need to be trending.

CT counter trends should be good in consolidation as you are trading from the bounce off support and resistance.

If you're trading demo...you can try anything as it doesn't matter and learn from it.

My recommendations are find a broker with 10 pence per pip on mt4...drop £100 in there and start trading...

Nothing like the real feeling of winning or losing of course !
  • #27,515
  • May 14, 2014 2:30pm May 14, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting nic73
Hi all, Did this counter trend trade today on GBPUSD. Analysis within the chart. There were 2 other pairs EURUSD and USDCHF that formed Lower High or Higher Low respectively, on MACD but I only took GBPUSD. And it was on demo account. Happy with the profit I have taken and although I only captured about 38% of the total move (from entry to 21ema). In a counter trend trade, I consider every pip gained a bonus. Question: With counter trend trade, is the chance of success higher with formation such at double top/bottom, round top/bottom? And kindly...
Yes the chance of success is higher when there is a DT/DB or a sHs on the MACD or price. These are reversal patterns so TP's can be big.
  • #27,516
  • May 14, 2014 2:38pm May 14, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting nic73
Another chart here from AUDNZD. How would you have analyzed this chart, to trade or not to? For buy. My analysis is within the chart. Value your input. Very, very much appreciated to the person who read or rely, in advance. Thank you very much.{image}
You could take this trade and just go to BE once the grey resistance area is reached and that way position yourself for a breakout. The other option is to monitor the 1H chart and look for any reversal patterns at this grey resistance level and if any occur you close the trade to minimize your loss.

That grey resistance level is actually a very strong level. If you go back further you'll see that it tested it more than 3 times. I also have this level on my chart.

I usually use a white background during the day and the black background during night time.
  • #27,517
  • Edited 3:57pm May 14, 2014 3:45pm | Edited 3:57pm
Quoting LifesAbeach
{quote} I usually use a white background during the day and the black background during night time.
How you do that Life?

May be this helps:

https://justgetflux.com/
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #27,518
  • May 14, 2014 3:48pm May 14, 2014 3:48pm
Quoting nic73
Finally, how do you guys like my dark background for the chart. Personally, I like it because it is less taxing to my eyes. {image}

Check these out:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=449935


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=474623

I like this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...65#post7007765
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #27,519
  • May 14, 2014 9:34pm May 14, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting LifesAbeach
{quote} You could take this trade and just go to BE once the grey resistance area is reached and that way position yourself for a breakout. The other option is to monitor the 1H chart and look for any reversal patterns at this grey resistance level and if any occur you close the trade to minimize your loss. That grey resistance level is actually a very strong level. If you go back further you'll see that it tested it more than 3 times. I also have this level on my chart. I usually use a white background during the day and the black background during...
That's what I did after posting this. Took the trade and set to BE after it moved about 12 pips and got closed out, no losses. And got an opportunity to trade breakout. And it took me some time to decide that I could trade this as breakout.

Thanks for your comment.
  • #27,520
  • May 14, 2014 9:37pm May 14, 2014 9:37pm
Hey, thanks all for your replies. Very helpful and great insight for me.

Yea, sometimes it can get boring using the same colour chart, time for a change.
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