CFA Trader - Market Profile and Price action analyses

EURUSD - On Friday the selloff continued. I did not expect it that strong. I tried to take a long trade 1,3788 but ended with a loss.
For today I expect calming after 2 day selloff and sideways rotation. I took a long trade this morning with which I target into resistence zones from attached picture.
If I get a signal for short trade in the resistence I will trade to the short side.

EURUSD - Market indeed calmed down yesterday in line with my expectations.

3 TPO ledge has formed at yesterday´s high and I was expecting a test above so I held on my long position. That test did not come.

I have closed the position a while ago. We have important macro news coming out at 11:00 and I do not want to hold position into the news and the market shows no strength to upside.

The ledge is still good candidate for test. It could come with the news release, but I do not want to gamble on the news.

I will wait in resistences for short opportunities.

EURUSD - Yesterday´s macro news release caused dowside move. But the decisive break came just after 12:00. I suspect it were the longs who accumulated positions during Monday and dumped their inventory.

After the break I was expecting a move to 1,3700 area, which happened. I took some long trades there and got profit this morning. I also took some longs this morning and got small profit.

For today I see 1,3700 area as important. It must hold and I will stay more bullish in short term and wait for new opportunities to enter into long trade.

EURUSD - Yesterday´s US session was dead. No trading opportunities.

Today when markets opened in London there was selling off the gate and price stopped in key support. This area must hold. If not I would expect move to 1,3640 and 1,3600.

So far I do not see any confirmation of buyers. If I get a signal I would like to take long trade(s) since there are attractive targets.

EURUSD - We had a nice buying initiative during yesterday´s US session and price tested first target I showed yesterday. There was nice Pin bar on 2h and 4h chart which was good for entry. I took some long trades and took part in the upside move.

Now price seems to have a problem to break through 1,3730 again. I am waiting for test into area of yesterday´s buying initiative and I want to see buyers react there again. If I get confirmation of buyers I will attempt long trade(s) again.

EURUSD - The support zone shown in my previous post worked nicely on Friday. Actually there was the only reasonable move of the day from this support (two times). I took long trade on the second test. For the rest of Friday the market was boring.

We are in sideways move (with value between 1,3705-1,3715) and I am not able to say if there is more buying activity or selling activity going on.

We had nice buying reaction and initiative on Thursday but no continuation on Friday.

I am waiting for new clues from the market. Since there is no macro news today I expect another boring day with minimum opportunities to trade.

EURUSD - Yesterday played out as expected - narrow range, minimum volume, only scalp trading opportunities.

For today there is high probability of testing high of Asian session. But unless we have some news that will activate longer time frames and big players I expect price rotation in major Value Area.

Until we get a decisive breakout from the Value Area I am not interested in trading this market.

EURUSD - Yesterday brought only 2 long opportunities to trade. In my eyes they were more of a scalp trade which I do rarely. Anyway I took both trades.

During today´s Asian session price also tested yesterday´s high, which I called high probability target in yesterday´s post.

For today I expect continuation of sideways movement until the FOMC MM release. I would guess that this event attracts big players into the market and we could finaly get some moves and swing trade opportunities.

I will wait for clues after the release.

EURUSD - Yesterday´s development was a bit surprising for me. It all started with selloff right at lunch (manipulative). However this selloff broke through important support and left a single print behid.

Then some 30 minutes before FOMC MM release there was quick test into key support around 1,3633 and strong rejection on heavy volume.

The Valeu Area was established lower for yesterday which is more bearish for me. However the strong buying reaction shows some buying interest. But so far buyers have not been able to push price significantly higher.

I am waiting in resistences for short opportunities.

EURUSD - Yesterday we had a sideways moving market with minimum volume.

Volume is still low this morning and I am waiting where big players will want to take part in this market.

Value Area was established higher yesterday and I see potential for continuation of sideways movement and correction into important resitence around 1,3700.
It will be important how sellers will react there.

In the attached picture I share 2 good supports for potential long trade.

EURUSD - Market continued it´s sideways movement yesterday. Both supports from my last post gave profitable long scalp opportunities. My buy limit order at 1,3638 was not filled (basically by 0,5 pip). I took a scalp agresivelly in the second support.

However the activity of big players during the downside move was minimal. First increase in activity came with test of Friday´s and Monday´s lows. I took 2 long positions there. I closed one around dPOC and held the second just in case the market would rally overnight. It did not happen so I closed it this morning.

Today the market shows minimum activity of big players. I expect test below yesterday´s low and eventually into "super support" 1,3600-1,3590. I want to take long trades there and wait what happens from there.

EURUSD - We finally got activity by big players yesterday. It was in the support I posted about yesterday morning.

There was nice divergence betwen Price and Orderflow which hinted buying activity. I took long trades according to my plan. I also tried out few scalp trades yesterday and this morning in the support area.

I took some profits at 1,3618 which is dPOC of this week and I wait what happens next. My bias continues to be bullish.

EURUSD - Developing weekly POC proved itself as strong resistence yesterday. Price tested there 3 times and was not able to break through.

We are thus stuck in sideways move in narrow range between developing weekly POC a VAL.

If buyers from Wednesday get nervous and start to get rid of their contracts we can witness selloff into 1,3520 and 1,3500.

Until we break below this week´s low I have neutral bias which will turn bullish if we break above 1,3620.

EURUSD - Price attempted to move higher during Friday´s US session. Bying initiative was countered by sellers from weekly dVAH.

Today´s morning macro news from Europe helped to push price lower.

My bias is neutral at the moment. I think we will not witness any major move before Thurday´s ECB.

EURUSD - Market created Neutral type of day yesterday, in line with my expectations. There were few opportunities to trade agresivelly to long side from 1,3600 support or based on signals formed after test of the same support.

Important macro news will be released in Europe in about 20 minutes. If they will be significantly away from expectations we may witness strong price move even before Thurday´s ECB.

We are in very low volatility environment for 7 trading days. Breakout from this low volatility could bring strong move. I will want to trade with direction of such breakout, if it occurs.

EURUSD - Market showed no breakout from recent Value Area (VA) yesterday. However price tested important low at 1,3586 and there was decent buying reaction.

After 12:00 there was buying initiative from nice Pin bar on 4h. Price tested all the way into volume VAH from Monday (see picture). Reactive sellers entered into the market there. I took a scalp short from dVAH and later I tried to take long trade on pullback into 1,3620 with expectation that buyers will be active again. Price made 10 tick move but I was playing for dVAH and when price retraced to the entry point I closed that trade.

Today there is minimum volume in the market. I expect rotation around significant price level (value) within the current trading range. I suspect that the "big boys" are waiting for tomorrow´s ECB.

I took a short term long trade few minutes ago. I do not plan to do much else today. I will wait for reaction to tomorrows ECB and trade with direction of breakout from the current trading range.

EURUSD - Yesterday morning played out as expected and I took a quick profit on my long trade.

In the afternoon I missed a good short entry when price tested into Tuesday´s VAH. From there price retraced into key price level I have highlighted in yesterday´s post.

I do not plan to do anything until ECB press conference is over. I have prepared scenarios for long trades, if there is no action from ECB and correction to the upside should start, as well as for short trades if ECB loosens monetary policy.

EURUSD - Market was pretty wild yesterday. Additionally the volume traded in 6E futures was way above average (highest daily volume from November 2013 ECB meeting - BTW similar scenario yesterday = rates down - price moved down significantly but retraced the whole move before session end).

Since longer term time frames were active yesterday I merged profiles from May ECB press conference (another key macro news event) since today.

I have highlighted important resistence levels which I consider good for swing trades (even long term).

My short term bias in EURUSD is bullish. Retracements into supports will provide good opportunities for short term long trades.

However my long term bias is bearish and I will wait for short opportunities in key resistance levels.

EURUSD - On Friday price tested above Thurday´s high. There was nice reaction of sellers there and then price tested all the way towards daily low. I took few scalp short trades during the move.

For today I expect sideways price movement mostly in Friday´s Value Area (VA), since there is minimum macro news and bank holidays in some European countries.

EURUSD - Yesterday´s development has surprised me. We had a directional (down) day. Price moved all the way to 1,3590 area where it spent the whole US session (and traded the highest volume there).

Today price test lower continues. It already tested the VAL of last week. I would expect reaction of buyers in this area. There is good potential for price to start testing higher into POC area of 2 previous weeks.