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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #27,481
  • May 7, 2014 6:30am May 7, 2014 6:30am
Trade Idea (disclaimer ON)

GBPJPY looks promising to go long. 4H MACD possibly forming zero bounce. 1H chart is heading up and positive. Price action on 4H shown good bounce.

Nic - probably smaller time frame you mean like when to enter on 1H chart?
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  • #27,482
  • May 7, 2014 12:30pm May 7, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting nic73
{quote} Hey, I am thinking of the Daily TL too, that price might head there after a pull back to 21ema. But you thought pulling back to 8ema, could that be a bit risky? I would only consider taking it from 8ema if the it is notvery far away from 21ema, like 10-15pips. Second concern is the gap between 8 and 21ema, they are getting wider, should I be worried about that? Thanks

Yeah, it looks risky as the price has been bouncing along the 89 and almost ignoring the 8/21 to get to that high on the H4..

Daily chart it has been happily riding up the 8 for 18 days.... and there is lots of room for the macd still to go higher.

The h4 21ma is under the TL for me. so if its a classic BPM...then somewhere between the 8/21could be okay...


Lets see what the H1 is doing, on my chart the macd is just under zero and trying to make a RB...if that is confirmed and price moves up,,then a TC could form on the H4 on the macd and price bouncing off the 8..


I've just re-read this and it doesn't make sense to me, so heaven knows if it you can understand it..hope so..
  • #27,483
  • May 7, 2014 3:50pm May 7, 2014 3:50pm
Pending long placed on Aud/Usd

Price bouncing off strong support and 8 ma is holding.

Macd yet to make a TC up...Hence a pending order just above the top of the last couple of h4 candles.


I have removed my pivots and trying support and resistance lines...i wasn't really using them..but i know price likes to interact with the main weekly pivot....i will see which i prefer....pivots which i sort of ignore...or my own support and resistance lines, which are harder to ignore as i have made them and they are part of me.

Good luck all...
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  • #27,484
  • May 7, 2014 9:21pm May 7, 2014 9:21pm
Quoting yaakruay
Pending long placed on Aud/Usd Price bouncing off strong support and 8 ma is holding. Macd yet to make a TC up...Hence a pending order just above the top of the last couple of h4 candles. I have removed my pivots and trying support and resistance lines...i wasn't really using them..but i know price likes to interact with the main weekly pivot....i will see which i prefer....pivots which i sort of ignore...or my own support and resistance lines, which are harder to ignore as i have made them and they are part of me. Good luck all... {image}
It's a confirmed TC. Let's ride....
  • #27,485
  • May 7, 2014 9:46pm May 7, 2014 9:46pm
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Yeah, it looks risky as the price has been bouncing along the 89 and almost ignoring the 8/21 to get to that high on the H4.. Daily chart it has been happily riding up the 8 for 18 days.... and there is lots of room for the macd still to go higher. The h4 21ma is under the TL for me. so if its a classic BPM...then somewhere between the 8/21could be okay... Lets see what the H1 is doing, on my chart the macd is just under zero and trying to make a RB...if that is confirmed and price moves up,,then a TC could form on the H4 on the macd and...
don't worry my friend. There is a time when we aren't sure. So ended up not knowing what we say. I go through that and it's only part of life.
  • #27,486
  • May 7, 2014 10:14pm May 7, 2014 10:14pm
Hi,

I have been struggling with trading the shorter time frame for a long dinosaur time. I have asked about the same issue many times but I still cannot grasp the idea of shorter TF entry. I hope some of you here can help me understand this topic.

If I were to trade on a shorter time frame, do I need to refer to the 4hour TF to confirm entry. Precisely, does the 4hour TF have to indicate there is a possible entry with one or all of the following: BPM, candle moving away from 21ema, MACD confirmation etc.? What I am trying to say is, if on the 1 hour TF price is moving away from 21ema and MACD confirms that BUT on the 4Hr TF there is no such indication, can I enter base on the analysis of the 1HR TF?
  • #27,487
  • May 8, 2014 1:46am May 8, 2014 1:46am
Quoting freewilly
{quote} It's a confirmed TC. Let's ride....
As it was an overnight trade, i bottled it on the take profit

I was going for 25 pips but i changed this to 15 as i turned my pc off, when i woke up this morning the order had already been opened and closed with 15 pip profit....but profit is profit...so all is ok..

It's always nice when the plan works...
  • #27,488
  • May 8, 2014 2:16am May 8, 2014 2:16am
Quoting nic73
{quote} don't worry my friend. There is a time when we aren't sure. So ended up not knowing what we say. I go through that and it's only part of life.

Looks like as predicted..bouncing off the TL not quite making it or the 21....now for that nice green bar on macd to say TC...lets go !
  • #27,489
  • May 8, 2014 5:37am May 8, 2014 5:37am
Trade Idea - SHORT USDJPY (disclaimer ON)

Zero Bounce and TC on USDJPY 4H spotted. Price rejecting resistance and EMA 21. I wont explain further as the chart speak itself.

Happy trading.
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  • #27,490
  • Edited 1:51pm May 8, 2014 1:21pm | Edited 1:51pm
Quoting freewilly
Trade Idea - SHORT USDJPY (disclaimer ON) Zero Bounce and TC on USDJPY 4H spotted. Price rejecting resistance and EMA 21. I wont explain further as the chart speak itself. Happy trading. {image}

I'm on this one, i saw it whilst i was at work and looking on my phone at the charts...

I got in at 101.67...

I'm just worried about the support level at 101.40 ish....

It needs a strong bearish candle to break it....but is this the one...or will price make it back up towards the 21/89..

Decisions...pull the plug now and take little profit or wait too see if it goes down!

Edit....30 mins laters...i bottled it and pulled the plug I had 19 pips and was only after 20 initially...so all is good...
  • #27,491
  • May 9, 2014 11:34am May 9, 2014 11:34am
Here's something interesting I've learned. For anyone interested and anyone trading the AUDUSD or USDCAD or both. These pairs move in opposite directions. When there is High Impact news (Unemployment and Rates) which involves either the AUD or CAD one should be careful taking trades on anyone of these pairs.
See attached example.

BUT... it can also be used as extra conformation after the news came out. Example... I want to take a short on the AUDUSD. I then check the CAD news and chart that came out and if it was worse than expected we would expect the CAD to go up and the AUD down which would be some extra confirmation and making the trade a higher probability trade.

Just some info to add to your trading arsenal.
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  • #27,492
  • May 9, 2014 11:48am May 9, 2014 11:48am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} I'm on this one, i saw it whilst i was at work and looking on my phone at the charts... I got in at 101.67... I'm just worried about the support level at 101.40 ish.... It needs a strong bearish candle to break it....but is this the one...or will price make it back up towards the 21/89.. Decisions...pull the plug now and take little profit or wait too see if it goes down! Edit....30 mins laters...i bottled it and pulled the plug I had 19 pips and was only after 20 initially...so all is good...
Haha It looks like you're on your way to a 1000 pips. I hope you're not secretly trading the Guru Machine.
  • #27,493
  • May 9, 2014 12:22pm May 9, 2014 12:22pm
Quoting nic73
Can some one please take the trouble to show me how to trade in the smaller time frame? I still cannot understand. Please help.
Nic when you say smaller TF are you talking about the 15M ect... or the 1H TF strategy explained on post 1?
If you go back to the posts from December 2013 there are videos that Phillip posted on how he trades 5M, 15M TF's.

Here is a short explanation on the 1H TF entry:

Important: Remember that the 8ema on the 4H corresponds to the 21ema on the 1H. Also remember that the 21ema on the 4H corresponds to the 89sma on the 1H. This means that when you are expecting price to bounce off the 8ema on the 4H TF you switch to the 1H TF and look for a TC off the 21ema on the 1H. If you are expecting price to bounce off the 21ema on the 4H TF you switch to the 1H and look for a bounce off the 89sma on the 1H.

I find this 1H early entry method difficult because you don't know if price is going to bounce off the 8ema or 21ema on the 4H TF. Also note that PA on the 1H is much more important than the signal given by the MACD on the 1H.

Example1 : We expect price to jump off the 21ema on the 4H so we switch to the 1H TF to look for a bounce off the 89sma on the 1H TF.
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  • #27,494
  • May 9, 2014 12:23pm May 9, 2014 12:23pm
Quoting nic73
Can some one please take the trouble to show me how to trade in the smaller time frame? I still cannot understand. Please help.
Example2: We expect price to jump off the 8ema on the 4H TF so we switch to the 1H and look for a bounce of the 21ema on the 1H TF.
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  • #27,495
  • May 9, 2014 3:49pm May 9, 2014 3:49pm
Hi Guys.
Good stuff showing up now on our thread. Neat to see the numbers increasing.

Just wanted to share my Monday Watch for the Aussie which I am now acquiring a strong taste for. Amazing how you react to one currency as it moves up & down. I know its not exciting to watch just one pair but believe me, there is enough opportunity to enter trades. Perhaps this is the reason that Phillip developed the strategy based solely on the Euro at the start. You get to live the chart after a while. That's what I am starting to find anyway for what it is worth.

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I see some of you are stealing pips from the Yen. I have had a wee look and see the possible H & S Breakout. Price is now just above the Zero so I guess that rules out a TC short. Just what I am seeing. Have a great weekend.

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  • #27,496
  • May 10, 2014 12:51am May 10, 2014 12:51am
Quoting LifesAbeach
{quote} Haha It looks like you're on your way to a 1000 pips. I hope you're not secretly trading the Guru Machine.
That's 40 pips banked just 960 to go...do losing open orders count? Ahhhh Okay thats 1060 pips to go.....
  • #27,497
  • May 10, 2014 12:55am May 10, 2014 12:55am
Quoting binnie
Hi Guys. Good stuff showing up now on our thread. Neat to see the numbers increasing. Just wanted to share my Monday Watch for the Aussie which I am now acquiring a strong taste for. Amazing how you react to one currency as it moves up & down. I know its not exciting to watch just one pair but believe me, there is enough opportunity to enter trades. Perhaps this is the reason that Phillip developed the strategy based solely on the Euro at the start. You get to live the chart after a while. That's what I am starting to find anyway for...

Hola,

That support area just seems so tough break, i knew i was right to be cautious and close a small winning trade down to it...

It will take a massive bearish candle to break through it.... Not this week....

enjoy your weekend
  • #27,498
  • May 11, 2014 10:17pm May 11, 2014 10:17pm
Quoting LifesAbeach
{quote} Nic when you say smaller TF are you talking about the 15M ect... or the 1H TF strategy explained on post 1? If you go back to the posts from December 2013 there are videos that Phillip posted on how he trades 5M, 15M TF's. Here is a short explanation on the 1H TF entry: Important: Remember that the 8ema on the 4H corresponds to the 21ema on the 1H. Also remember that the 21ema on the 4H corresponds to the 89sma on the 1H. This means that when you are expecting price to bounce off the 8ema on the 4H TF you switch to the 1H TF and look for...
Thanks for you reply. I am referring to both. Ya I know about info available on the forum. Somehow, I am not finding it easy to understand. With the 5min TF, I find it almost impossible. On the 15 min, 30min or even 1hr, it's not that easy either. I am still trying to figure our. I am reflecting on your post too and see how I go. Will definitely come back to you with mire questions. Thanks.
  • #27,499
  • May 11, 2014 10:19pm May 11, 2014 10:19pm
I have here spotted this trade on Friday but I did not take it. I watched it forming on the 4hr and on the shorter TF, 15min to 1hr.

Comments please. Thanks
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  • #27,500
  • May 12, 2014 2:01am May 12, 2014 2:01am
Quoting nic73
{quote} Thanks for you reply. I am referring to both. Ya I know about info available on the forum. Somehow, I am not finding it easy to understand. With the 5min TF, I find it almost impossible. On the 15 min, 30min or even 1hr, it's not that easy either. I am still trying to figure our. I am reflecting on your post too and see how I go. Will definitely come back to you with mire questions. Thanks.

Just follow the market rhythm from the H4 down to any time frame.

What was the expectation from the h4 and take that to lower time frame with your targets based on the H4.

This means on the m5 you can have a smaller stop loss as the swings are usually smaller than the larger candles on the higher time frames.

Don't beat yourself up or think too much....
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