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AUD/USD

  • #77,241
  • May 9, 2014 12:22am May 9, 2014 12:22am
maybe the bear cave load a party,soon..
  • #77,242
  • May 9, 2014 1:33am May 9, 2014 1:33am
A weekly close above .9230 this week..will push AU higher towards .9550-.9600
  • #77,243
  • May 9, 2014 2:36am May 9, 2014 2:36am
Quoting Barca
A weekly close above .9230 this week..will push AU higher towards .9550-.9600
Can't believe it...
  • #77,244
  • May 9, 2014 2:47am May 9, 2014 2:47am
Quoting zew
{quote} Can't believe it...
This is the last leg of the bull move. Leg 5. it will end soon and you might be early.

Can I ask you why can't you believe it? What is your bearish case?

I'm on the right side of the trade but my decision came from technical analysis. I started following you beecause you have a better grasp of the fundamentals.

Why do you think AUD shouldn't go up?
Is it the weak Chinese data? or lower commodity prices?
Could it be short covering?

What do you think mate?
  • #77,245
  • May 9, 2014 7:12am May 9, 2014 7:12am
Over the last couple of weeks, AUD/USD has made it a total of about 80 pips above the week open. This week it made it 102.

My opinion is if we get over .9381 before closing today and open in that area for next week that we could see the famed .9467 area.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,246
  • May 10, 2014 6:52pm May 10, 2014 6:52pm
Quoting Sacred Cut
{quote} This is the last leg of the bull move. Leg 5. it will end soon and you might be early. Can I ask you why can't you believe it? What is your bearish case? I'm on the right side of the trade but my decision came from technical analysis. I started following you beecause you have a better grasp of the fundamentals. Why do you think AUD shouldn't go up? Is it the weak Chinese data? or lower commodity prices? Could it be short covering? What do you think mate?
Yes!! It is a beautiful Elliot Wave too!! Starting from aprox 19th of Jan.
I find it difficult to identify these wonderful pattern, I think I get too stuck in the smaller time frames - and caught up in the noise. And then always second guessing myself as to whether it really is a certain pattern or not...
Do you have a particular program to identify them?
  • #77,247
  • May 10, 2014 7:19pm May 10, 2014 7:19pm
AUDUSD H1

My next target for Aussie. (.9445 before .9195 again) I am looking to enter long with convincing price action this coming week.

K.I.S.S.
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  • #77,248
  • May 10, 2014 10:29pm May 10, 2014 10:29pm
Quoting KissFan
AUDUSD H1 My next target for Aussie. (.9445 before .9195 again) I am looking to enter long with convincing price action this coming week. K.I.S.S. {image}

I see a buying opportunity too, this coming week, when this pair dips to around 0.9280 near the channel line, and advance for a medium term target near 0.9677.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #77,249
  • May 10, 2014 10:44pm May 10, 2014 10:44pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} I see a buying opportunity too, this coming week, when this pair dips to around 0.9280 near the channel line, and advance for a medium term target near 0.9677. {image}
my target is 0.955
  • #77,250
  • May 11, 2014 12:31pm May 11, 2014 12:31pm
Most probably it will go down this week .9270-.9260 then move forward to the long way up
  • #77,251
  • Edited 4:54pm May 11, 2014 3:38pm | Edited 4:54pm
Quoting abhinav23
Most probably it will go down this week .9270-.9260 then move forward to the long way up

I guess that's what makes all this so much fun I totally concur with the 270s as a target to the south. How it all plays out to get there is gonna be interesting...

I think shorts at .9380s and above will pay just fine to that area.

waiting for 0000 GMT open to run some calculations...

Still holding firm to the .9467 area being an extreme for long moves. Anything over that would be (IMHO) an emotional run that could turn anytime and potentially make the bulls bleed.

Currently unresolved targets here:

LONG

.9380's
.9467

SHORT

.9272
.9252
.9202

Attached Image
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,252
  • May 11, 2014 5:05pm May 11, 2014 5:05pm
Quoting Sacred Cut
{quote} This is the last leg of the bull move. Leg 5. it will end soon and you might be early. Can I ask you why can't you believe it? What is your bearish case? I'm on the right side of the trade but my decision came from technical analysis. I started following you beecause you have a better grasp of the fundamentals. Why do you think AUD shouldn't go up? Is it the weak Chinese data? or lower commodity prices? Could it be short covering? What do you think mate?
Chart shows aud still has potential to move up, if aud could overtake 0.9550, what's the reason could play it down? Without RBA changes statements, once AUD overtake that target it will overtake 0.96 very quickly. But fundamental looks like it doesn't support AUD can get that level. AUD by now is the only one hasn't been XXXXed by USD , so risk is there. Australia trading balance dropped quickly to 731M, One of the major reasons that AU got positive trade balance in these months was relying on iron ore financing in China. Iron ore price is dropping to lower level, since CBRC (Bank Regulator) is investigating iron ore financing.

I would like to stay away from aud and start to short it above 0.9460 or long it at 0.9150- 0.9220
  • #77,253
  • May 11, 2014 5:13pm May 11, 2014 5:13pm
Quoting zew
{quote} Chart shows aud still has potential to move up, if aud could overtake 0.9550, what's the reason could play it down? Without RBA changes statements, once AUD overtake that target it will overtake 0.96 very quickly. But fundamental looks like it doesn't support AUD can get that level. AUD by now is the only one hasn't been XXXXed by USD , so risk is there. Australia trading balance dropped quickly to 731M, One of the major reasons that AU got positive trade balance in these months was relying on iron ore financing in China. Iron ore price...
I like the long at 9220 idea. Not looking good for a short IMO
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #77,254
  • May 11, 2014 5:34pm May 11, 2014 5:34pm
Here my view for today..

Blue zone good place for short..

I'm still open short since close market..
And my TP in red zone..
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  • #77,255
  • May 11, 2014 6:52pm May 11, 2014 6:52pm
Quoting santuary123
Here my view for today.. Blue zone good place for short.. I'm still open short since close market.. And my TP in red zone.. {image} {image}
i was short with the same target from 0.9389 but confidence recovery i think will lead this pair to touch 0.9450 again.
also look like a USD selloff n EUR/USD is bout to ocur.
  • #77,256
  • May 11, 2014 10:35pm May 11, 2014 10:35pm
Quoting zew
{quote} Chart shows aud still has potential to move up, if aud could overtake 0.9550, what's the reason could play it down? Without RBA changes statements, once AUD overtake that target it will overtake 0.96 very quickly. But fundamental looks like it doesn't support AUD can get that level. AUD by now is the only one hasn't been XXXXed by USD , so risk is there. Australia trading balance dropped quickly to 731M, One of the major reasons that AU got positive trade balance in these months was relying on iron ore financing in China. Iron ore price...
it all comes down to budget this week..
govt is trying to increase tax and petrol prices which will increase inflation..
we soon will have NZ situation where interest has to go up and AUD will continue to go up..
  • #77,257
  • May 11, 2014 10:48pm May 11, 2014 10:48pm
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} it all comes down to budget this week.. govt is trying to increase tax and petrol prices which will increase inflation.. we soon will have NZ situation where interest has to go up and AUD will continue to go up..
NZ has totally different situation. if OZ gov tighten budget, they will prefer weak aud. Strong AUD, high interest rate are not good for AU. Australia is the most expensive country in G20(4th in the world), RBA want to make it more expensive to get the Rank NO.1?

Even RBNZ will postpone interest hike when NZD above 0.86.
  • #77,258
  • May 12, 2014 3:53am May 12, 2014 3:53am
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} it all comes down to budget this week.. govt is trying to increase tax and petrol prices which will increase inflation.. we soon will have NZ situation where interest has to go up and AUD will continue to go up..
Hello, do you know when exactly budget release will begin tomorrow? thanks.
  • #77,259
  • May 12, 2014 5:43am May 12, 2014 5:43am
This just got reached:

(TIMES IN GMT)

Attached Image


30m chart:

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"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,260
  • May 12, 2014 6:03am May 12, 2014 6:03am
Quoting ShepherdL
{quote} Hello, do you know when exactly budget release will begin tomorrow? thanks.
7.30.pm. Canberra / Sydney (9.30.AM. GMT).
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