Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job | Page 212 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading For Those Who Have A Day Job 28 replies

Trading For Those Who Have A Day Job 0 replies

For those of you who ARE trading the Yen... 9 replies

Start Trading: Throw Those Excuses Out the Window 0 replies

Attachments: Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job
Exit Attachments

Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job

  • #4,221
  • May 9, 2014 7:43am May 9, 2014 7:43am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think you've got to forget the carry. Carry might be an issue if NZD was going sideways, but it looks to me like it's going down, at least to 8500, perhaps to 8400, perhaps to 8000. I've never bothered to work out the carry, but really, is it that much? If big traders (the banks, hedgies, institutions, etc.) were only concerned about carry a high yielder would never drop and a low yielder would never rise.
Hi BW,

Yes, I just did a little checking to see how much if costs.
Currently on NU it would cost .75 pips per day to hold short. Not enough to be concerned about.

Thanks
  • #4,222
  • May 9, 2014 8:36am May 9, 2014 8:36am
Quoting srt
{quote} Hi BW, Yes, I just did a little checking to see how much if costs. Currently on NU it would cost .75 pips per day to hold short. Not enough to be concerned about. Thanks

thanks Srt for putting it like that. So if we believe this pair is going down hard just find your entry and 'sell and hold' for the expected move.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,223
  • May 9, 2014 8:50am May 9, 2014 8:50am
Quoting Olu
{quote} thanks Srt for putting it like that. So if we believe this pair is going down hard just find your entry and 'sell and hold' for the expected move. Olu
Hi Olu,

Yes, I think the carry costs should have no influence on our decisions unless it's something like gold/silver where the carry costs are pretty significant (I think).
The US$ seems to be getting some support here & other currencies are showing signs of a reversal. Some are predicting 600 pip drop in NU over 3-4 months. Of course, everyone has an opinion :-)
AU is holding up better than most. I might look to go long there.
  • #4,224
  • May 9, 2014 1:20pm May 9, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting Olu
Cocoa Instead of price building on the breakdown the markets threw a curveball. {image}
Price did not continue upwards today. I will be happier when the low of that hammeris taken out...

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 17 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,225
  • May 10, 2014 6:20am May 10, 2014 6:20am
Quoting srt
{quote} Me too :-) I trade all my commodities without stops. Start small & scale in sloooowly. I'm not very good @ pin-point entries.
Hi Srt - Can I ask how you cope with huge gaps like the 20% drop in corn last year. I like to scale in and start small like you but my nightmare is that I'll be long with multiple positions when this happens - won't matter then whether you have a stop or not.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CORN.jpg Size: 117 KB
  • #4,226
  • Edited 7:28am May 10, 2014 6:47am | Edited 7:28am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Hi Srt - Can I ask how you cope with huge gaps like the 20% drop in corn last year. I like to scale in and start small like you but my nightmare is that I'll be long with multiple positions when this happens - won't matter then whether you have a stop or not. {image}
Hi Stewrigh,

Yes, scaling in can be dangerous if it can drop that much. As for the example you gave, I would never be scaling in corn @ those levels (6.50-7.00). I've followed corn for many years so I know how quickly the supply/demand situation can change especially when a lot is dependent upon weather. So there can be long periods of time where you can't trade corn if price remains high. I look at other commodities in a similar way by waiting for a time when I feel prices are low enough to start scaling in. Always be careful though about how quickly you add as prices can get pushed farther that you'd expect so leave some room for error. I've sat in a drawdown in corn for 3 months already before the position became profitable so even when I think it's low enough it can always go lower.

Also, I usually use options which will have a lower delta than owning the underlying futures contract so a bit less painful when wrong.

Looking @ the monthly chart, if you only have 3 entries, you could buy @ 5, 4, 3 and sell 6-8. Could be a long-term trade :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Corn (Monthly)-1.png Size: 33 KB
  • #4,227
  • May 10, 2014 7:18am May 10, 2014 7:18am
Dollar Index
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DollarIndex-weekly-10052014.png Size: 59 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,228
  • May 10, 2014 7:25am May 10, 2014 7:25am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Hi Srt - Can I ask how you cope with huge gaps like the 20% drop in corn last year. I like to scale in and start small like you but my nightmare is that I'll be long with multiple positions when this happens - won't matter then whether you have a stop or not. {image}


Good Question S. Last night I was reading a old book about scaling in commodities and the first thing that came to mind was the effect of price moving down sharply after loading up all the way up

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,229
  • May 10, 2014 7:32am May 10, 2014 7:32am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Good Question S. Last night I was reading a old book about scaling in commodities and the first thing that came to mind was the effect of price moving down sharply after loading up all the way up Olu
Thanks Olu - Iam thinking about options too - who do you trade with?
  • #4,230
  • May 10, 2014 7:44am May 10, 2014 7:44am
Commodity Index
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GSCI-daiily-10052014.jpg Size: 99 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,231
  • May 10, 2014 8:00am May 10, 2014 8:00am
Comments about the Euro
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-weekly-10052014.jpg Size: 68 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,232
  • May 10, 2014 8:13am May 10, 2014 8:13am
Coffee
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: coffee-daily-10052014.jpg Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: coffee-weekly-10052014.jpg Size: 68 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,233
  • May 10, 2014 8:36am May 10, 2014 8:36am
Canadian Dollar Futures
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CadFutures-daily-10052014.jpg Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CadFutures-weekly-10052014.jpg Size: 66 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CadFutures-monthly-10052014.jpg Size: 59 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,234
  • May 10, 2014 8:50am May 10, 2014 8:50am
EurAud
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud-weekly-10052014.jpg Size: 74 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,235
  • May 10, 2014 8:53am May 10, 2014 8:53am
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Thanks Olu - Iam thinking about options too - who do you trade with?

I am with saxobank S. I am currently looking at interactive brokers though

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,236
  • May 10, 2014 10:32am May 10, 2014 10:32am
Quoting Olu
Comments about the Euro {image}
Hi Olu,

I agree with you. However, this Indice has a potential of continuing with an upward trend. Yes the might be a small re-tracement soon. You could scoop around 20pip minimum.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S-P OR US500 - 10-05-2014.jpg Size: 152 KB
Be the dragon master...
  • #4,237
  • May 10, 2014 11:09am May 10, 2014 11:09am
Quoting srt
{quote} Hi Stewrigh, Yes, scaling in can be dangerous if it can drop that much. As for the example you gave, I would never be scaling in corn @ those levels (6.50-7.00). I've followed corn for many years so I know how quickly the supply/demand situation can change especially when a lot is dependent upon weather. So there can be long periods of time where you can't trade corn if price remains high. I look at other commodities in a similar way by waiting for a time when I feel prices are low enough to start scaling in. Always be careful though about...
Thanks SRT - think I need to start experimenting with comms.
  • #4,238
  • May 10, 2014 11:53am May 10, 2014 11:53am
Quoting Olu
{quote} I am with saxobank S. I am currently looking at interactive brokers though Olu
I can highly recommend IB. The charts are crap but I've learned to live with that. The reliability is excellent, as is their pricing (of course). Having come to IB from an SB background there was something about knowing that I was trading the market rather than an SB firm's presentation of the market that changed my trading.

I just took a look at saxobank though out of interest - do you mean saxomarkets? They offer an impressive range of markets, similar to IB, and seem to do them through DMA also.

Also, apparently you get the Hightower report. Which report or reports do you get, and have you found them useful? If so, I might open an account just to get the reports

I just checked saxo's commissions though: it seems saxo clients pay through the nose for that report:
IB's commissions top out at 85c: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/e...futures1#fixed
saxo's commissions top out at $6 : http://uk.saxomarkets.com/prices/futures/
I can't remember if you pay commissions on both legs of a trade (buy, sell); I think so (you'd think I'd know wouldn't you). If so you're looking at $12 + exchange fees to do an ES trade which has a tick size of $12.50. That's really ugly.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,239
  • May 10, 2014 2:25pm May 10, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting stewrigh
{quote} Thanks SRT - think I need to start experimenting with comms.
One more comment about the chart you showed. It shows a 20% drop but that's due to the expiration of one contract & starting with a new front month contract. Corn can have big one-day moves but not that much. The CME has limits on how far price can move in one day. Currently corn has a $.35 limit on day 1 which gets raised to $.55 on day 2 if day 1 closes locked limit in one direction. That makes for about 7% in one day with the 2nd day about 11%. Not small amounts either but not the 20% the chart shows.

Right now there's a $.10 spread between Jul. corn & Dec. corn.
There's a $2.60 spread between Jul. beans & Nov. beans so that would be a scary looking chart if the front month was expired now.
  • #4,240
  • May 10, 2014 3:15pm May 10, 2014 3:15pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I can highly recommend IB. The charts are crap but I've learned to live with that. The reliability is excellent, as is their pricing (of course). Having come to IB from an SB background there was something about knowing that I was trading the market rather than an SB firm's presentation of the market that changed my trading. I just took a look at saxobank though out of interest - do you mean saxomarkets? They offer an impressive range of markets, similar to IB, and seem to do them through DMA also. Also, apparently you get the Hightower...

Yes it is saxobank in the UK. And yes the commissions are waaaaay higher than IB. I have also seen the rubbish chart for IB. However I think that one can get over that especially as I do longer term trades. At the moment I am used to Saxobank and just wary of taking the plunge. I also have an AlpariUK account primarily for forex.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
4 traders viewing now