Disliked{quote} It's always interesting to read some of the ideas and things people come up with. As you probably already know, the market, although not actually random, appears to be random. In other words volatility gives the appearance that it is random. As a result, there is no rule based system that will predict future market behavior or volatility. Systems with rigid rules can mainly be classified into two categories: those that perform well in trends and those that perform well in ranges. Therefore, there are criteria you can put in place to keep...Ignored
As I had mentioned before, I'm not new to FX even though I appear as a new member here. I've had a pretty large gap in FX activity. I've had my period of time where I was lucky and didn't comprehend money management and risk management. I've had accounts blown out because of my lack of understanding these things. My opinion is that it takes these things to really learn. Just like Edison and probably many here, I've found the 1,000 things that don't work.
Apologies for the diversion from AUD/USD for a moment, but at the link below you'll see a list of about 120 targets that I tracked on EUR/USD over a period of time using the exact method I described:
https://secure.trackvia.com/app/shar...2d542ab6df2817
There are a few targets in that table that still show not reached but on a quick glance, they all seem to be in ranges that the EUR has certainly visited.
This exercise for me has caused me to view the market in a very different way from most.
I do keep a typical stochastic on my 30m chart and I do bounce around some on viewing timeframes to check out oversold and overbought conditions on different timeframes. I've found this is what matters most: having a clear view of when the market is over sold and when the market is over bought and my studies have helped me see that so much clearer and in a somewhat predictive manner which enhances my risk management as a trader too.
Another element this constantly shows me is when fear and greed enter the market. This is when price starts to run like crazy in a direction for no apparent reason and you start hearing things like, "wow - this is never going to stop going!!" This is the time period where the typical trader enters a bad trade.
FEAR and GREED are like ASSETS and LIABILITIES. If you hold assets, someone else is holding the liabilities and vice versa. The big money gets greedy and relies on the average traders fear so they will have their losers lined up to win big. FEAR is your biggest competition as a trader in my opinion. Once you can understand and overcome this is when your trading will change for the better.
So, if I had to say anything to a new trader it would be:
- RISK and MONEY management are SUPREME. Understand that whatever set of indicators you use MUST enhance these two things. If they don't, you shouldn't use them.
- FEAR and GREED must be understood. Many throw these two things out there and have no understanding of them.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
W1 chart showing a potential double top for long term trend down to the 0.91500 levels. D1 is not really giving anything away at the moment but a little more upside and again a double top may be formed. H4 is looking bullish at the moment however trend is showing bear so a correction may come into play after the hype of the 5.8% dies down H1 has topped out and showing signs of a weakening bull strength for some nice bear movements M30 is bull but a retrace is showing signs of strength with a potential to...
