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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #13,581
  • May 5, 2014 6:24pm May 5, 2014 6:24pm
Found this weekly Trend and MPP info, some may find it useful, I did. I like the fact that it made me look at a longer
time frame and not focus on the short term chop.
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File Type: pdf YC 5-4-14.pdf   39 KB | 311 downloads
  • #13,582
  • May 5, 2014 6:55pm May 5, 2014 6:55pm
Selling Weekly Pivot 172.47 tonight off today's 171.90 bounce. Looking for 171.69 or lower. Found this monthly Trend and MPP info that some might find useful. I did. First time I posted it I cutoff headers so it was not clear, sorry
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  • #13,583
  • May 6, 2014 12:44am May 6, 2014 12:44am
Since about 15:15 I have G/J trading in a range on a 15 minute chart between an upper 200 Day EMA of 172.33 and a lower 100 Day EMA of 172.25.
Therefore a strong break out above 172.33 may go to 172.60 or below 172.25 thru 172.09
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: May 6.png Size: 133 KB
to 171.80
  • #13,584
  • May 6, 2014 1:46am May 6, 2014 1:46am
At the trendline again? If price doesn't reverse here and start falling... uf Nikkei still looks stable and in down-mode...
  • #13,585
  • May 6, 2014 1:58am May 6, 2014 1:58am
Ha, both Cable and GJ within a pip or two of breaking up ..... but they haven't yet
  • #13,586
  • May 6, 2014 2:08am May 6, 2014 2:08am
Quoting Mpt
Ha, both Cable and GJ within a pip or two of breaking up ..... but they haven't yet
All nice round numbers - Cable hold over 1.69, GJ 172.5 . Of course one can happen without the other
  • #13,587
  • May 6, 2014 3:55am May 6, 2014 3:55am
About 3 minutes before the news a nice spike up. I wonder if someone didn't get info on the news before the rest of us... It looks like GBP reached the top for today... I wonder if price will not walk on the trendline for a few days. I observed this behavior in the past a few times. Like it want so erase it with the rubber on the other side of the pencil.
  • #13,588
  • May 6, 2014 4:56am May 6, 2014 4:56am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
About 3 minutes before the news a nice spike up. I wonder if someone didn't get info on the news before the rest of us... It looks like GBP reached the top for today... I wonder if price will not walk on the trendline for a few days. I observed this behavior in the past a few times. Like it want so erase it with the rubber on the other side of the pencil.
Cable resistance is a hard one. By one measure, I saw 169.2. Then 169.5. Next would be 170~170.3/4, but over there it has very much broken up. Right now, if it really is in a (bearish) wedge, it must get under 169.3 to suggest completion.
  • #13,589
  • May 6, 2014 6:28am May 6, 2014 6:28am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Cable resistance is a hard one. By one measure, I saw 169.2. Then 169.5. Next would be 170~170.3/4, but over there it has very much broken up. Right now, if it really is in a (bearish) wedge, it must get under 169.3 to suggest completion.
It couldn't break below 171.90 and now it has turned bullish to me and if it breaks 173 then I believe we will definitely see high levels (174xx, 175xx)
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,590
  • May 6, 2014 6:35am May 6, 2014 6:35am
Quoting karmostaji
{quote} It couldn't break below 171.90 and now it has turned bullish to me and if it breaks 173 then I believe we will definitely see high levels (174xx, 175xx)
I agree, but I think it's in a correction and may well break below 171.8 next time.
  • #13,591
  • May 6, 2014 7:53am May 6, 2014 7:53am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote}right now as hda pointed he is expecting 7000 and i am expecting 6969 on GU
@PatienceFx:

You got your 1.6969 GBP/USD and I may get my 1.7000 GBP/USD

Lets see what happens

HDA OUT
  • #13,592
  • May 6, 2014 8:06am May 6, 2014 8:06am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @PatienceFx: You got your 1.6969 GBP/USD and I may get my 1.7000 GBP/USD Lets see what happens HDA OUT
Well done! Good job. You had been waiting for these levels since November, right ?

Any analysis for GJ/UJ today ?
  • #13,593
  • May 6, 2014 8:28am May 6, 2014 8:28am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} Well done! Good job. You had been waiting for these levels since November, right ? Any analysis for GJ/UJ today ?
@workingforex:

Yes since November 2013, that is correct.

Please note, I'm not ignoring you.

I'm not posting. I'm just waiting on my take profit on the GBP/USD to hit so that I can post a very special treat I have for the traders in that forum.

I am already in the dog house with the wife. I'm just here because my take profit may get hit today.


Lets See What Happens

HDA OUT
  • #13,594
  • May 6, 2014 2:32pm May 6, 2014 2:32pm
I was waiting what will happen with JPY pairs when Nikkei brake triangular formation for the second time in last 62 days. Well EJ and UJ went down while AJ and CJ not. GJ stuck in the middle, being held up by GU. But if GU stopped going north and will retrace and Nikkei will keep falling, then GJ will descent heavy. Or maybe I am just dreaming.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,595
  • May 6, 2014 3:06pm May 6, 2014 3:06pm
PS. Am I the only one interested in short? Everybody else is long? Ah crap, I am on the wrong side again...
  • #13,596
  • May 6, 2014 3:06pm May 6, 2014 3:06pm
I still think an upside breakout looks most probable. One more nice break of 173 should do it. We've had enough teasing for the last few months.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #13,597
  • May 6, 2014 3:20pm May 6, 2014 3:20pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
PS. Am I the only one interested in short? Everybody else is long? Ah crap, I am on the wrong side again...
Hi Indigo. I have shorted this pair as well (for the second time today). I am not a big fan of shorting GJ, but with UJ going down and BOJ meeting minutes out tonight the yen crosses, in my opinion, are all about to head south. I am initially targeting 170.80/60, but if that breaks easily then I am targeting 170/169.60. EJ is the odd one out for me. It has been stronger lately, but Draghi will probably take care of that if EU is still topped out on Thursday during the ECB press conference.
  • #13,598
  • Edited 7:41pm May 6, 2014 6:49pm | Edited 7:41pm
It all depends on whether it gets back under 172.3/5. One view (from my perspective) is that it broke out a few hours ago at 172.5 (as discussed here earlier). ... or it tried to

Should it get back under, then a fall back to about 171/170.7 is possible.

Both those views are consistant with bullishness (if there's such a word) within a rising wedge .

Any fall below about 170.5 ish would have it in a bullish triangle.

UJ at 101.6/7 is, I think, also significant for a bounce or drop
  • #13,599
  • May 6, 2014 7:14pm May 6, 2014 7:14pm
Either way, I suspect that right here could be the decider between bullish or bearish - and those two could be moderate or extreme.

So, I just watch.
  • #13,600
  • Edited 9:12pm May 6, 2014 9:01pm | Edited 9:12pm
Showing 1hr chart

Break to the upside normally returns and tests the formation on the upper side. (or at least the breakout level)

Break to the downside returns and tests on the lower side. Same as above.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh1.png Size: 59 KB
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