AUD/USD Long
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- #4,363
- May 1, 2014 2:00am May 1, 2014 2:00am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
eur/usd H4
eur/usd daily
gbp/usd H4
gbp/usd daily
eur/usd daily
gbp/usd H4
gbp/usd daily
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,365
- May 1, 2014 6:41am May 1, 2014 6:41am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,366
- May 2, 2014 4:44am May 2, 2014 4:44am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,368
- May 2, 2014 7:54am May 2, 2014 7:54am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
Maybe the return for a new support necessary to attack to 4160 ...
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,369
- May 2, 2014 8:48am May 2, 2014 8:48am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
Maybe the return for a new support necessary to attack to 4160 ... {image} {image}
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,370
- May 2, 2014 10:08am May 2, 2014 10:08am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
Yes. Pretty unexpected for me. Analysis over the weekend. Maybe.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,372
- May 3, 2014 4:57am May 3, 2014 4:57am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
{quote} Is good. Sometimes things happen the way they we expect. If we make a proper analysis, we can predict what will happen. So, let's get to the analysis. First about the cable. On this chart there UpTrend 376 pips in 18 days. Then there DownSwing 79 pips in 4 days. Finally, two inside bars. {image} I think we all feel diffidence of the market in the last few days. But the decisions, what can be? This is what interests us. 1. Launched DownSwing shows us an opportunity to start of the DownTrend. Necessary is the price to fall below 6660. 2. Other...
First daily chart.
We UpTrend 454 pips in 28 days. The last UpSwing 157 pips for 6 days. Then there is a bar with a lower top and bottom. This means NeutralSlope. The opportunities to continue are just two, of course. Up or down.
1. Up. To continue UpTrend. Necessary is the next, or anyone else bar to have a high peak of 6918. Before a new low below 6821.
2. Down. We need a bar with a low below 6821 for the launch of new DownSwing. Then we need this or another bar with low below 6761 for DownTrend.
The probability of the second event are in the table.
Probability is below 50% in price. We need more 183-157 = 26 pips. The length of the time - the probability is 50%.
Now H4 chart with fans of Gann.
The price is below the criterion for end of the trend. We have a standard solution to such a situation. No need to "guess".
The solution is: while the price is below the criterion (6985), the price will strive to line 6873. If the price goes below it, it will strive to line 6817.
On Friday he saw that. Normal movement. The problem is that the price did not reach the line 6817. And she went back to 6873. Now again raises the question of support from line 6873. When support may have to attack on criteria. And possibly a new high - UpTrend continuation.
Conclusion. Continuing UpTrend this is only PA. The criterion of fans is very difficult to be fulfilled. This means the price to reach about 1.7. For that I expect to start a new DownSwing. Whether it's on Monday? I do not know.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,373
- May 3, 2014 5:22am May 3, 2014 5:22am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
See now friends. I will allow myself something that is wrong. There are still only NeutralSlope. There is no DownSwing. A new fan can draw only if a new Swing on a daily chart. This can occur as early as Tuesday.
You see how this "hypothetical" fan affect the price movement. I can not, and I do not want to explain more. Just show that I sometimes set the fan before the conditions have arisen about it.
You see how this "hypothetical" fan affect the price movement. I can not, and I do not want to explain more. Just show that I sometimes set the fan before the conditions have arisen about it.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,374
- May 3, 2014 7:44am May 3, 2014 7:44am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
Before proceeding with the analysis for the euro, I must say that the price range for 64 days shrank in the last day.
What do we do? What is the solution to this problem? I commented on this before. I think there are new members who have not read. For that I will repeat.
I think that Gann is not drawing new charts. It is reserved already selected scale. How we can achieve? To keep the scale, I cut the interval time. For example, if the price range has shrunk twice. Then I divide the square of the quarter (64 days) of two squares in 32 days. Then one division is 32/8 = 4 days.
That's how it seems "new" square of Gann. For the first half of the second quarter.
What do we do? What is the solution to this problem? I commented on this before. I think there are new members who have not read. For that I will repeat.
I think that Gann is not drawing new charts. It is reserved already selected scale. How we can achieve? To keep the scale, I cut the interval time. For example, if the price range has shrunk twice. Then I divide the square of the quarter (64 days) of two squares in 32 days. Then one division is 32/8 = 4 days.
That's how it seems "new" square of Gann. For the first half of the second quarter.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,375
- May 3, 2014 8:29am May 3, 2014 8:29am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
Before proceeding with the analysis for the euro, I must say that the price range for 64 days shrank in the last day. What do we do? What is the solution to this problem? I commented on this before. I think there are new members who have not read. For that I will repeat. I think that Gann is not drawing new charts. It is reserved already selected scale. How we can achieve? To keep the scale, I cut the interval time. For example, if the price range has shrunk twice. Then I divide the square of the quarter (64 days) of two squares in 32 days. Then...
Square for one year. In the euro I've divided into two squares in half a year. To keep the scale.
You can see the squares quarterly.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,376
- May 3, 2014 9:51am May 3, 2014 9:51am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
Well, let's get on with the euro. On the chart there DownTrend - 120 pips in 7 days. The last swing is DownSwing - 80 pips in 3 days. Then there is a bar with a higher bottom and top. This means NeutralSlope. Shows weakness of the DownSwing. But then it has two inside bars. {image} What are the opportunities? 1. If the price fell below 3784 without breaking the top 3854 DownTrend will continue. 2. Needed a bar with a higher high of 3854 to start UpSwing. If the same or the next bar break 3864 will now have a UpTrend. The probability this to happen...
Daily chart.
Here we have DownSwing, who broke the previous low. This means DownTrend. In other words, the chart has DownSwing = DownTrend --> 103 pips in 2 days. Then there is a bar with a higher bottom and top. This means NeutralSlope. And yesterday's bar is an inside bar of the range. The inside bars do not change the trend. The opportunities, surprising to me, again are just two. Up or down.
1. Down. To continue DownTrend is nessesary the price to go below 3776.
2. Upwards. To launch the new UpTrend need a bar with peak above 3889 before a new low below 3776.
The probability this to happen again is well below 50%.
And again, same as last week, the price remained at the top of the range. There are already NeutralSlope. In other words, it is possible UpTrend despite the low probability.
Finally H4 chart.
We see that the criterion of the blue bear fan was broken. Bulls managed to do that on the day of the new DownSwin & DownTrend. Yesterday the bears tried to return to the market. Bulls, however, returned the price in the area of "last line of defense" of the bears.
Conclusion. Bulls are on the rise. Opening above 3872 can give support to bulls to attack to 3915. This will mean new UpSwing = UpTrend (over 3889).
If the Bulls allowed the price to go below 3845 possible new attack down to 3810.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,377
- May 3, 2014 10:05am May 3, 2014 10:05am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
See now friends. I will allow myself something that is wrong. There are still only NeutralSlope. There is no DownSwing. A new fan can draw only if a new Swing on a daily chart. This can occur as early as Tuesday. {image} You see how this "hypothetical" fan affect the price movement. I can not, and I do not want to explain more. Just show that I sometimes set the fan before the conditions have arisen about it.
We clearly see how the bears yesterday tried to break the criterion of "hypothetical" fan. Ultimately bulls were recovered. It was interesting and surprising to me.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,378
- May 4, 2014 2:57am May 4, 2014 2:57am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
All right. I long time using table probabilities without regard to the change of the range. Just take it for something permanent. Because for the first time made it a little after the top 1.6, there were many large and fast movements. Now, I just forgot to change the range for the table. These are experiments. I'm looking for an answer. Particularly with respect to time reversal.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
- #4,379
- May 4, 2014 8:04am May 4, 2014 8:04am
- Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,005 Posts
{quote} Thank you Godim. Appreciated.
I use the indicator to draw the various fractals. From the article MurreyMath. Fractals I get through a time division. MurreyMath calculates the exact price at graduations. And this indicator outlines "channels" on fractals.
These are fractals that I use.
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar