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Binary Options: How hard is it to predict trend changes?

  • #1
  • First Post: May 3, 2014 4:07am May 3, 2014 4:07am
I'm not trading Binary Options atm, I'm just curious about something, Experts/many forex traders are pretty good at predicting trend changes, But with binary options you also have to predict when the trendchange will occur, i guess that is the hardest part or am i wrong?

Many binary options brokers set the time themself for experation which makes it a bit harder, but some brokers (www.binary.com) for example, they let you set the exact time for yourself, from 30 seconds to x years. My question is, how hard is it to predict WHEN a trendchange will occur. I'm decent at forex trading, not a pro but not a noob either. So if anyone here could share some tips?
Do you always use the same expiry time in binary options? Do you use the same strategy in forex trading as in binary options or do you have a seperate system for that? Many people think that binary options is gambling, I'm not so sure what to believe. Please share your thoughts.

Thanks!
  • #2
  • May 3, 2014 4:12am May 3, 2014 4:12am
If you are not gambling on 30/60-seconds options, then you can use them when you expect some significant market event (like Fed decision, nonfarm payrolls, etc.) and set your expiry time accordingly.
  • #3
  • May 3, 2014 4:20am May 3, 2014 4:20am
Thanks for your answer! I mostly use technical analysis and a little fundamental. Do you think that binary options is possible with only technical analysis? I mean trade binary options on a daily basis, And win about 60% of your trades?

Thanks.
  • #4
  • May 4, 2014 6:51am May 4, 2014 6:51am
Why not? With binary options, you can bet on such events as "Inside Range/Outside Range", "Touch/No Touch" and others, simply by assessing the chances via technical analysis.
  • #5
  • Edited 11:01am May 4, 2014 10:48am | Edited 11:01am
Quoting ultrarookie
I'm not trading Binary Options atm, I'm just curious about something, Experts/many forex traders are pretty good at predicting trend changes, But with binary options you also have to predict when the trendchange will occur, i guess that is the hardest part or am i wrong? Many binary options brokers set the time themself for experation which makes it a bit harder, but some brokers (www.binary.com) for example, they let you set the exact time for yourself, from 30 seconds to x years. My question is, how hard is it...

If people think Binary options are like gambling, then all trading, to make money is gambling. Binary options come down to probability just like forex, stocks or commodities. Technical analysis, along with indicators all have the probability to have an outcome thats random, 50%. This has been shown time and time again. As the percentile curve is extended further and further the odds grow closer to 50%.

With binary options you have to win between 53-58% of the time depending on payout to be ITM, can it be done to find figure out if the next 30 min candle is going to do up or down ? are you able to predict within at least the next 4 candles it will go in the direction you pick. Can you be wrong 4 times in a row ?

How much risk are you willing to take ? More risk means higher payout ? are you willing to risk more ?

I have been trading binary options for 10 months now, and I have lost alot of money. No surprise as all new traders lose money hahaa but once you figure it out, there is money to be made. Im not saying I have mastered the trading for BO's Im just saying there can be a lot of potential in it. I personally am starting to find my groove, but I just wish I had of traded on a demo account until I have figured this out.

But you have to learn some how right ?

edit: just to add along with my own trading I also take signals from a guy who trades 80% + a month 20-4 last month for him. Mind you I went 11-0 on friday
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #6
  • May 4, 2014 2:46pm May 4, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting ultrarookie
I'm not trading Binary Options atm, I'm just curious about something, Experts/many forex traders are pretty good at predicting trend changes, But with binary options you also have to predict when the trendchange will occur, i guess that is the hardest part or am i wrong? Many binary options brokers set the time themself for experation which makes it a bit harder, but some brokers (www.binary.com) for example, they let you set the exact time for yourself, from 30 seconds to x years. My question is, how hard is it...
If they are still in business then the odds must be stacked against you. Ofcourse if you grind at it for maybe 2-3 years you could possibly develop a unique skill set, but I can't see myself trusting binary option brokers in the long-term. Once you start making money they'll probably pull tricks on you.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #7
  • May 4, 2014 4:28pm May 4, 2014 4:28pm
I trade BOs and made money, however you must be in a trend and have a second screen in front of you with
the 5M chart (or 3M is better) to trade the 60 second entries. Many other factors apply!, such as time of day,
Asian/European/US sessions the trading mentality is not the same for a given pair. Takes a while, but can be
done & $, following ONLY ONE pair for about a week before anyone should risk real money. Hope this helps?
  • #8
  • May 5, 2014 12:44am May 5, 2014 12:44am
Apart from the fellow who are always bragging on the forums, I am yet to see a profitable and experienced BO's trader.

I guess these guys have the skill to attract a rookie but experienced traders would rather wait for some time.
  • #9
  • May 5, 2014 6:46am May 5, 2014 6:46am
Quoting Danny Maina
Apart from the fellow who are always bragging on the forums, I am yet to see a profitable and experienced BO's trader. I guess these guys have the skill to attract a rookie but experienced traders would rather wait for some time.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/TradeTerminal/
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #10
  • May 5, 2014 9:49am May 5, 2014 9:49am
Thanks to everyone for your answers/opinions and tips!
  • #11
  • Jul 30, 2014 8:52am Jul 30, 2014 8:52am
Hi everyone,
I thought I would put my exp so far with a live account with BDB... I have attached a open trade on eurusd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: banc de binary.jpg Size: 194 KB
  • #12
  • Jul 30, 2014 9:11am Jul 30, 2014 9:11am
As you may notice their is some slippage on the price on open trades on the same pair??? and this can be up to 3 pips at any given time which I guess is away of controlling price... Obviously I can see the fun here... but if the price feed is "unique" to the binary option company... this leaves a fair amount of room for movement in price or not as the case may be...

I attached a chat with BDB options today, just so we are clear these are for fun only not serious trading...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chat BDB.jpg Size: 262 KB
  • #13
  • Jul 30, 2014 9:23am Jul 30, 2014 9:23am
So am I pissed off cause I lost money...actually no. I have taken my account from €250 to over €507 over a period of 20 trading days looking fo 3% compounded per day. So knowing all this information mean larger TF only, min 1/2hr but better an hour plus...

Oh yea don't hunt for reversals unless its outside normal trading hours unless very low volatility... i.e eur used after 5.00pm gmt..before 7am gmt..
Follow trends during normal trading hours and utilize some indicators to assist with trends on 15min chart etc... look for pull back and enter in direction of trend...

By the way 85% return will require less effort at being right...lol i.e top option (has the same issues as BDB ref earlier comments)

good luck all....
  • #14
  • Jul 30, 2014 10:58am Jul 30, 2014 10:58am
Good evening. I would like to say that if you believe the market is fractal. Then you would see that Binary actually works. Many people say it is a "gamble". Yet a gamble is any sort of WAGER in which you expect to gain something in return. Something monetary. Being it never mentions how much currency has to be place at risk in order for to be labeled as a "gamble" or not. The sad reality is, that number doesn't exist. I rather wager a specific dollar amount, and if the condition (put/call) doesn't go my way. I lose 100% of my investment. Why would that be? I don't eat away at free cash. :nerd:Which means that simply using "Martingale" when you wager using Binary Options is an AUTOMATIC win. Why? Well, because a reversal candle will always come. So wagering as they do in Casinos will guarantee you a win 100% certain. You simply don't know how many times in a row you will close for a loss. Which is why you use martingale, and earn 85% (On avg) if you wager is a winner.


Think for a second.........

What I am saying is the market has trends. I would rather wager in Binary, then come back with the final 1 min of the candle (Wager to be final). You know if you are up 10 pips, its a 100% win. Win 10 pips to you isn't even worth 3% of your capital. Why would you risk 3% to lose 100%? The reality is when we deposit, we lose every single cent. You don't lose 15% then withdraw what it is left.

So how about we give it a look, and you will be shocked as to what you will see. I know I don't lose on the 15m chart for more then 3 times in a row which means when after the 3rd lose, you attack the broker with bigger lots using martingale. No single price after being close across any a fib level, will make you lose more then 3 time in a row. Meaning 3 straight engulfs in a row with no breakout. All you need is a candle to close in your favor. Better then risk free margin can having it turn into a bias spending spree.

If you want to earn in bINARY.... You have to be a charist. If not, you won't have the single clue to use binary and mt4 together.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #15
  • Jul 30, 2014 11:28am Jul 30, 2014 11:28am
Quoting CholiPop
I know I don't lose on the 15m chart for more then 3 times in a row which means when after the 3rd lose, you attack the broker with bigger lots using martingale. to be final). .

that is exactly how I trade as well, I give myself 4 candles but normally 2-3 is where it hits. 30 minute time frames is my poison.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #16
  • Jul 31, 2014 1:40am Jul 31, 2014 1:40am
Hi Cholipop and cogsx86... If you have cracked the "we will have it in 3 or even 4 100%".... then your both million no billionaires... and I congratulate you both. Now I'm quite a chartist myself and many times I wait and get it in usually 2 candles.. however I would think the max number of times could be a lot more if news and other events created a sideways or unexpected reversal leading to flat PA...
I understand the martingale method and the mathematics behind probability and statistics however with the control of binary option brokers you will be priced out of some expired wins by their manipulation of their regulated feed.... so if the PA does not move a sufficient amount form your position this would be another item we as traders need to deal with in a "How do I feel knowing that I should of won that trade as my charts agreed the put or call" any how.. I have added my binary trading today 3 trades taken as marked by arrows... 15 min chart 1 hour trades on the half hour... utilizing low volatility today...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd binary.jpg Size: 148 KB
  • #17
  • Jul 31, 2014 4:07pm Jul 31, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting buttons
Hi Cholipop and cogsx86... If you have cracked the "we will have it in 3 or even 4 100%".... then your both million no billionaires... and I congratulate you both. Now I'm quite a chartist myself and many times I wait and get it in usually 2 candles.. however I would think the max number of times could be a lot more if news and other events created a sideways or unexpected reversal leading to flat PA... I understand the martingale method and the mathematics behind probability and statistics however with the control of binary option brokers you will...

As you said brokers will manipulate the price, hence the sequence of 4 trades, this is based on small amount from 50-100 dollars per trade do the math, after 4 trades you make 200-400 bucks but you wagered between 2610 to 5200. in only 4 trades,

one rule I have if the offered price is not in between bid/ask price the trades isnt taken, also if the posted price on my brokers website is but the price I will recieve once I make the trade is not I will cancel the trade. I get 3 seconds to make this move. One thing I learnd you will only be bale to cancel 20% of your trades before BDB in my case will not allow me to perform this action any further. So to combat this I make 1$ trades every once in while to make sure I dont hit that limit but all the same it is about keepin it between bid/ask prcie

attached is an indicator i use for this

To add my trade amounts start at .0015% of my portfolio

oh and as for being a millionaire or billionaire its not that easy yes you can keep winning consistently but there is number of factor I have to watch

fatique
emotions
and sometimes it happens being wrong more then 4 times, I combat this by they dividing lose over more currency pairs to reduce loses and risk with one currency pair. and dont get me wrong there is day I lose 2k or 3k but they dont happen often and to be honest they havent happened in a long time but I dont expose myself to poor trades either, Im winning more then Im losing slowly but surely

its kinda like poker you gotta know when your heads not in the game.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Average Market Price.ex4   8 KB | 797 downloads
File Type: mq5 Average Market Price.mq5   < 1 KB | 587 downloads
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #18
  • Jul 31, 2014 10:20pm Jul 31, 2014 10:20pm
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} that is exactly how I trade as well, I give myself 4 candles but normally 2-3 is where it hits. 30 minute time frames is my poison.
If you can win on 30 mins then I would say stay right there. The poster "buttons" has the typical "if it is so easy you would be a millionaire or billionaire" attitude, but the reality some of us are ok with earning 200 usd a day. We don't have a COMPOUND trading mentality as you would suggest we would have in order to earn million or more.
If the thread wants more information on binary, why not share it for everyone to see. I am willing to fund a binary broker, if someone else do so as well. This way we can have all of our trades posted for people to see and learn from.

Just a thought, would be great to make it reality.
Banks scalp, why don't you?
  • #19
  • Jul 31, 2014 11:10pm Jul 31, 2014 11:10pm
Quoting CholiPop
{quote} If you can win on 30 mins then I would say stay right there. The poster "buttons" has the typical "if it is so easy you would be a millionaire or billionaire" attitude, but the reality some of us are ok with earning 200 usd a day. We don't have a COMPOUND trading mentality as you would suggest we would have in order to earn million or more. If the thread wants more information on binary, why not share it for everyone to see. I am willing to fund a binary broker, if someone else do so as well. This way we can have all of our trades posted...
I post some trades I make here: this is a BO's website, I also have a FB group check it out its just for fun but I post market news, motivational stuff, fun stuff and just cool things.

same as you the idea is for more people to share I ideas

General Website:
//http://forums.binaryoptionsthatsuck.com/forum.php

My thread:

http://forums.binaryoptionsthatsuck....9-with-S-amp-R

And my facebook group

https://www.facebook.com/COGSCorner?..._type=bookmark
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #20
  • Aug 1, 2014 1:48am Aug 1, 2014 1:48am
Quoting CholiPop
{quote} If you can win on 30 mins then I would say stay right there. The poster "buttons" has the typical "if it is so easy you would be a millionaire or billionaire" attitude, but the reality some of us are ok with earning 200 usd a day. We don't have a COMPOUND trading mentality as you would suggest we would have in order to earn million or more. If the thread wants more information on binary, why not share it for everyone to see. I am willing to fund a binary broker, if someone else do so as well. This way we can have all of our trades posted...
Hi Guys, I guess we are missing the point.. the original thread was about the validity of binary option trading (pick the next candles direction) and if they could be traded as a serious income... weather that be €200 a day or €10000... My online chat with BDB opened up the ability to manipulate the feed to some amount.. which would further exasperate the ability to trade over a set period..
I opened a account (attached) with BDB have traded with it about 24 days and have turned the bank from 250 to 643... I did try and withdraw some monies but after 2 weeks i cancelled it as was not happening... however it is great practice for finding the best place to enter my normal spread betting trades.... even tho its real money Im now treating it like a demo... lol...
I'm not sure if I would be comfortable sending thousands to a binary broker located in Cyprus.. considering the problems with getting a few hundred back and the fact the area in Europe is a bit lets say "ropey" when it comes to financial regulation in line with the rest of the planet..
reference the idea of sharing that would be nice... I'm happy to do that..
Will attache some charts and ideas later... Just watching BDB.. now... the move in reference to my MT4 Mt5 charts different feeds took nearly 1 min before BDB numbers moved.... could be a play their...
Attached Image
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