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AUD/USD

  • #77,021
  • May 2, 2014 1:44pm May 2, 2014 1:44pm
Quoting Citiboy
For the life of me cant remember where i read it yesterday, but i remember it correctly. it was a nfp preview based around projections the fed would hike by june 2015 at 200k per month by june 2015 unemployment would fall to 5.8% at 200k per month by june 2015 unemployment would wall to nearly 5%, if there was a half percentage point fall in the labor force participation rate. (0.4% fall occured today so thats already a done deal basically) wonder what it would be based on 300k a month? Fed is running risk of letting things overheat if they cant...

This trend should solidify itself before any change in accommodative policy. So far it is certainly getting to really assert itself. I think the lagging indicators should catch up to and this would definitely be a sign of the confirmation needed. Or at least some closure around it. Cause right now trying to figure out why people dont give a shit and not looking for work will continue to signal something unsettling. Until then I believe the prevailing view is that it is a lagging indicator and it will catch up as long as the labor market recovery persists.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #77,022
  • May 2, 2014 2:37pm May 2, 2014 2:37pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
Fear and greed in the market works like this: The movers of this market need your fear to foster their greed. Give them this and you will lose.

Hope ur trade is ok?
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #77,023
  • May 2, 2014 2:38pm May 2, 2014 2:38pm
Nice WE guys.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #77,024
  • Edited 4:13pm May 2, 2014 3:46pm | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting Zircon
{quote} Hope ur trade is ok?
i had had added long before the spike down with the news. I'm comfortable with the position. It will win. I won't get anywhere close to a margin call.....we'd have to get to .6310 for that to be a concern....I don't see that happening so quickly I couldn't do something about it

...I ain't skeered....and I ain't givin' nothin' back.


There was a .9226 short target I had written about earlier this week. Having reached that I'm QUITE comfortable with a long bias right now.

.9317 developed as a long target in the midst of all this today also. .9467 is still open as well. These would be levels I'd consider starting to build up a short bias/position when we reach them.

as it stands right now I think we need an up move to gain more clarity below current levels....

ill be be back at the trade station late Monday night and analyzing the close of this week much closer then and sharing my thoughts if so desired.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,025
  • May 2, 2014 6:10pm May 2, 2014 6:10pm
AU looks like it wants to go DOWN under
  • #77,026
  • May 2, 2014 6:41pm May 2, 2014 6:41pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
The drop and then full recovery (aka retest), now clears the way for lower lows.
I'm of the view that we will probably hit the 200 SMA, then go down, down, down... My other rational is that the US data from here on will probably be better than data released in Australia.

The Kong is also of the view that we are in Risk-off mode.

https://charts.mql5.com/4/603/audusd...-markets-3.png

What's everyone's thoughts?
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #77,027
  • May 2, 2014 6:49pm May 2, 2014 6:49pm
Who the hell knows? I just see this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2014-05-02 at 7.47.02 PM.PNG Size: 210 KB
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #77,028
  • May 2, 2014 6:57pm May 2, 2014 6:57pm
I should have posted this one...

https://charts.mql5.com/4/603/audusd...-markets-5.png

Hit 0.9290 and then down.
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #77,029
  • May 2, 2014 7:09pm May 2, 2014 7:09pm
My thoughts:

- if I handed you $5,000,000 would you take a .25% or 3% overnight rate?
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,030
  • May 2, 2014 9:39pm May 2, 2014 9:39pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
My thoughts: - if I handed you $5,000,000 would you take a .25% or 3% overnight rate?
I wouldn't bother with all this Forex mambo jumbo and just retire.
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #77,031
  • May 3, 2014 4:05am May 3, 2014 4:05am
Bounce hard at 50% fibo at daily...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-05-03-17-01-07.png Size: 269 KB
Peace Yo!
  • #77,032
  • May 3, 2014 5:32am May 3, 2014 5:32am
Quoting VaBikePacker
{quote} i had had added long before the spike down with the news. I'm comfortable with the position. It will win. I won't get anywhere close to a margin call.....we'd have to get to .6310 for that to be a concern....I don't see that happening so quickly I couldn't do something about it ...I ain't skeered....and I ain't givin' nothin' back. There was a .9226 short target I had written about earlier this week. Having reached that I'm QUITE comfortable with a long bias right now. .9317 developed as a long target in the midst of all this today also....
Good,
Agree on the level for the upside.

The daily printed a bullish hammer (butterfly) candlesticks traders says the price gonna fly when they see this pattern, 9426 temporarily top could be tested as well.

Trade safe.
Attached Image
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #77,033
  • May 3, 2014 7:31am May 3, 2014 7:31am
I did notice that as well. I primarily eye the 30m chart to gather my data for level predictions. I do glance at other time frames. While I harp on over use of indicators, I do keep a stochastic handy merely to get a feel for different time frames indicating oversold or over bought levels.

my opinion has become that understanding where this happens (over bought/over sold) is key to a predictive trading system.

.9467 developed as a long target on 4/23 and that NFP spike down to that .9226 area paints a pretty clear picture of range.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,034
  • May 3, 2014 9:16am May 3, 2014 9:16am
Quoting VaBikePacker
I did notice that as well. I primarily eye the 30m chart to gather my data for level predictions. I do glance at other time frames. While I harp on over use of indicators, I do keep a stochastic handy merely to get a feel for different time frames indicating oversold or over bought levels. my opinion has become that understanding where this happens (over bought/over sold) is key to a predictive trading system. .9467 developed as a long target on 4/23 and that NFP spike down to that .9226 area paints a pretty clear picture of range.
????
  • #77,035
  • May 3, 2014 3:15pm May 3, 2014 3:15pm
.9235 and .9226 developed for me on 4/29 as short targets...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,036
  • Edited 7:37pm May 3, 2014 7:04pm | Edited 7:37pm
The daily has closed with a shooting star....AUD/USD is bullish all of next week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Take what the market gives you.
  • #77,037
  • May 3, 2014 7:24pm May 3, 2014 7:24pm
Quoting Tiggrrr
The daily has closed with a shooting star....AUD/USD is bullish all of next week. {image}
Shooting stars are bullish?
  • #77,038
  • May 3, 2014 7:30pm May 3, 2014 7:30pm
A high number expected from building approvals next week.
It could very well disappoint.
We haven't quite tested the Daily 200ema and support with the 200SMA smack on the 38.2 fib.
We retested the 1hr breakout late Friday trading.

Be cautious of any red number.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #77,039
  • May 3, 2014 7:33pm May 3, 2014 7:33pm
Quoting Tiggrrr
The daily has closed with a shooting star....AUD/USD is bullish all of next week. {image}
Does look like a dragon fly dojo though, and at resistance could be a sign.. well see monday.
  • #77,040
  • Edited May 4, 2014 12:30pm May 3, 2014 7:38pm | Edited May 4, 2014 12:30pm
Quoting strat1x
{quote} Does look like a dragon fly dojo though, and at resistance could be a sign.. well see monday.

Yeap. Rejected the support. I'll give this pair a shot when the markets open tomorrow.
Take what the market gives you.
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