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NZD/USD

  • #5,001
  • May 2, 2014 12:16pm May 2, 2014 12:16pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I have been an avid nzd buyer for a while ... I don't think it will 'drop like a rock' anytime soon (years maybe) until interest rate differentals change. The usd has no rate hikes in sight while NZD does ... flows go for yield and the nzd has yield from rates + yield from weak usd (1% weaker usd = 1% higher returns from NZD). at most a pullback to .85, but that is probably it.
Thanks for your opinion and your input Slow-trader
my opinion NU will test 0.8745 or maybe 0.88
i'll put my sell limit above 0.88 and my first target 0.85 and 0.84
i don't say SOON, and this just an opinion
Regards
Tdk ada yang salah dengan seekor Gagak. Dibandingkan burung yang terkurung
  • #5,002
  • May 2, 2014 12:24pm May 2, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting Harlen
{quote} Thanks for your opinion and your input Slow-trader my opinion NU will test 0.8745 or maybe 0.88 i'll put my sell limit above 0.88 and my first target 0.85 and 0.84 i don't say SOON, and this just an opinion Regards
Not a problem, to each their own.

I just a lot of bearish EUR, NZD, AUD, etc calls (usd bullish) but I don't see/understand it.

Nothing outside of a technical (on daily/week) resistance exist, and that resistance will probably keep being broken.

I think long term the NZD is set for parity, maybe wrong, who knows. but I won't be bearish until we break and hold below .8050, I am going to keep buying dips until then.
  • #5,003
  • May 2, 2014 12:26pm May 2, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} I have been an avid nzd buyer for a while ... I don't think it will 'drop like a rock' anytime soon (years maybe) until interest rate differentals change. The usd has no rate hikes in sight while NZD does ... flows go for yield and the nzd has yield from rates + yield from weak usd (1% weaker usd = 1% higher returns from NZD). at most a pullback to .85, but that is probably it.
i think it's clearly enough if you see my charts
i don't have a strong basic on fudamental
Tdk ada yang salah dengan seekor Gagak. Dibandingkan burung yang terkurung
  • #5,004
  • May 2, 2014 12:28pm May 2, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting slow-trader
{quote} Not a problem, to each their own. I just a lot of bearish EUR, NZD, AUD, etc calls (usd bullish) but I don't see/understand it. Nothing outside of a technical (on daily/week) resistance exist, and that resistance will probably keep being broken. I think long term the NZD is set for parity, maybe wrong, who knows. but I won't be bearish until we break and hold below .8050, I am going to keep buying dips until then.
maybe we're in the diffrent camp, but we can earn proft from bears and bulls
wish you luck on your trade
Tdk ada yang salah dengan seekor Gagak. Dibandingkan burung yang terkurung
  • #5,005
  • May 2, 2014 12:32pm May 2, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting Harlen
{quote} i think it's clearly enough if you see my charts i don't have a strong basic on fudamental
What fundi's if I may ask?
  • #5,006
  • May 2, 2014 12:49pm May 2, 2014 12:49pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} Lower 0,85XXs were reached a day or so ago, green shorts cashed in. Support responded well there and shot NZDUSD towards high 0,86XXs once again as expected. But bulls be warned, this is the final bull push since after (probably roughly round) top in high 0,86XXs will be reached (i'll set sell order there) there is a long journey to 0,84XXs territory or maybe even lower.
So we reached first TP @ 0,8660 (+120 pips), another 1/2 with TP @ 0,8675 should be taken sooner or later. I already put sell order @0,8680 with excellent RR ratio (RR 1:4 - TP 200/225/250 pips, SL 50 pips). If it goes according to plan, it should be my trade of the month. Looking forward to next week.
  • #5,007
  • May 2, 2014 12:58pm May 2, 2014 12:58pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} So we reached first TP @ 0,8660 (+120 pips), another 1/2 with TP @ 0,8675 should be taken sooner or later. I already put sell order @0,8680 with excellent RR ratio (RR 1:4 - TP 200/225/250 pips, SL 50 pips). If it goes according to plan, it should be my trade of the month. Looking forward to next week.
Tdk ada yang salah dengan seekor Gagak. Dibandingkan burung yang terkurung
  • #5,008
  • May 2, 2014 1:27pm May 2, 2014 1:27pm
Entered short, .8665.
  • #5,009
  • May 2, 2014 1:42pm May 2, 2014 1:42pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} So we reached first TP @ 0,8660 (+120 pips), another 1/2 with TP @ 0,8675 should be taken sooner or later. I already put sell order @0,8680 with excellent RR ratio (RR 1:4 - TP 200/225/250 pips, SL 50 pips). If it goes according to plan, it should be my trade of the month. Looking forward to next week.
Hi bro
I want ask u question not sure about it
  • #5,010
  • May 2, 2014 1:45pm May 2, 2014 1:45pm
@Spik
next week NZD News
Employment Change q/q , Unemployment Rate
Last time reaction was 200 pip up , this against my current view which is bearish
what do u think?
  • #5,011
  • May 2, 2014 2:00pm May 2, 2014 2:00pm
Quoting egkid
@Spik next week NZD News Employment Change q/q , Unemployment Rate Last time reaction was 200 pip up , this against my current view which is bearish what do u think?

is this why nu had no reaction to usd news today , may be we will test all time highs next week .
  • #5,012
  • May 2, 2014 2:25pm May 2, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting booze007
{quote} is this why nu had no reaction to usd news today , may be we will test all time highs next week .
we are going to retest all time lows.
  • #5,013
  • May 2, 2014 2:27pm May 2, 2014 2:27pm
Quoting strat1x
{quote} we are going to retest all time lows.
Sure, if you mean USD/NZD all time lows, you might be right
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #5,014
  • May 2, 2014 2:34pm May 2, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting strat1x
{quote} we are going to retest all time lows.

could you explain please . 95 % of them are shorting .thats exactly when it goes the other way around
  • #5,015
  • Edited 3:36pm May 2, 2014 3:22pm | Edited 3:36pm
Quoting egkid
@Spik next week NZD News Employment Change q/q , Unemployment Rate Last time reaction was 200 pip up , this against my current view which is bearish what do u think?
NZ economy is nothing short of a wonder in recent 12 months. Macroeconomically many things look really good, yet some indicators suggest not everything is in place yet (retail sales not at pre-crisis growth levels, inflation still near all-time lows and last data was a bit down after 2 consecutive rises, weakening capacity utilization recently etc.).

January 31th, 2014 they wrote >>But the scale and speed of the rise in the cash rate would depend "on future economic indicators", he (Wheeler) said.<< Since unemployment rate is one of the most important indicators for Wheeler, all eyes will be on the data Wednesday morning, since it will directly impact cash rate and NZDUSD.

And there is one more important statement he made then: "The exchange rate remains a considerable headwind for the economy and the bank does not think its current level is sustainable in the long run," said Wheeler. Let's not forget the rate was @0,8100 when he said it. We are 7% higher now.

Having said all this, we should still be very cautious trading NZD in next week. If unemployment data is good (first sub 6% unemployment rate in 5 years is expected after-all) then 0,88 attempt is a way to go since such good data would automatically mean higher chances of further rate rises. But as mentioned, some indicators show signs of weakness, so if unemployment (though extremely lagging indicator) dissapoints and stays in 6% territory the short trade aiming 0,84XX is one of these perfect trades that occur once in a while. And i prefer that trade in actual situation.
  • #5,016
  • May 2, 2014 3:45pm May 2, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting spinozagr
time for shorting bearish butterfly+ out of the LR channel+ resistance @R3 fibo
imo we are at the beginning of the "south" process... Stoch indi, apart from the indicators i mentioned before, confirms my expectations... lets see.
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #5,017
  • May 2, 2014 3:50pm May 2, 2014 3:50pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} NZ economy is nothing short of a wonder in recent 12 months. Macroeconomically many things look really good, yet some indicators suggest not everything is in place yet (retail sales not at pre-crisis growth levels, inflation still near all-time lows and last data was a bit down after 2 consecutive rises, weakening capacity utilization recently etc.). January 31th, 2014 they wrote >>But the scale and speed of the rise in the cash rate would depend "on future economic indicators", he (Wheeler) said.<< Since unemployment rate is one of the...
go to google and do a timeline search for 2010, 2011, 2012, etc. Same thing is said every year.

Take a step back and look at the simple facts.

Is there a lot of cash in the world? yes

Is New Zealand a desirable place to live in and invest in? (retire even)? yes

Do they sell a consumable good that is tied to inflation (like plastic out of China) or commodities that will be in demand in downturn to (common good compared to inferior good)? They sell milk, nuff said.

As far as real estate and milk. There are literally billions of people who, in the next 5, 10, 20 years, will work their way upto the lifestyle of an American (me), European, Australian, etc. in other words... what is left has to be shared.

I think for the sole fact that New Zealand is a little paradise, it will be in demand long after I am dead. I am not really bearish at all and don't plan to be, I think we can see parity on many pairs (cad, usd, aud, etc) in the next few years.

Can it collapse to the lower 70's? sure, but that is only if an economic crisis happened. But the headlines out of China, imo, aren't anything to worry about yet. I think those who push 'disaster' stories are the ones buying anything cheap.

So who cares if a company or two bankrupts in China, that isn't a bad thing. Bad business's should fail, assets sold, and something better built up with the wisdom of what went wrong.


They can talk all day, but that isnt going to stop someone from getting the investment they want .... them talking their currency down is just dropping the premium in many eyes, including mine.
  • #5,018
  • May 2, 2014 4:13pm May 2, 2014 4:13pm
Quoting Spik
{quote} NZ economy is nothing short of a wonder in recent 12 months. Macroeconomically many things look really good, yet some indicators suggest not everything is in place yet (retail sales not at pre-crisis growth levels, inflation still near all-time lows and last data was a bit down after 2 consecutive rises, weakening capacity utilization recently etc.). January 31th, 2014 they wrote >>But the scale and speed of the rise in the cash rate would depend "on future economic indicators", he (Wheeler) said.<< Since unemployment rate is one of the...
Thanks spik
happy weekend to all
  • #5,019
  • May 2, 2014 4:40pm May 2, 2014 4:40pm
Quoting booze007
{quote} could you explain please . 95 % of them are shorting .thats exactly when it goes the other way around
Hmmm, 95% thought that NZ would raise hikes and were long, what did it do?
  • #5,020
  • Edited 7:42am May 3, 2014 7:29am | Edited 7:42am
Wow,
These posts are really great! Awesome thumbs up to Spik and slow-trader!! I couldn't agree with either of you more. Really fantastic stuff, you've gotten me excited



Here's my view:

The global economy is going to suffer a major catastrophe. There can be no doubt about that. And when it does, it's going to be to the magnitude we've never seen before. But. It's too easy to just say that and then because of that decide I'm going to be short on everything I trade until it happens..

Life goes on, it doesn't just stop because things are going to happen further down the road. If you haven't realised the markets so far this year have been ranging for quite sometime. Ranging in my opinion is an ugly word, because really its just big banks collecting orders in anticipation of a breakout to which they know is an area that will be in view. How do they know it will be in view? Because they know in essence the news before it comes out. The question I have asked myself is, do I believe they're collecting short orders in anticipation of a major global financial crash about to occur? I highly doubt that! Why? Because if I was a scum banker, being the greedy filth I was, I would want to short at the all-time highs before all of that happening..

The data that comes out on Wednesday regarding unemployment will be monumental in deciding where we go next from here, remember this is a quarterly release meaning the volatility and amounts of money being moved will be enormous based on what the figure will be. I'm under the impression that the data will be positive, I live in New Zealand myself and no doubt we are experiencing an economic BOOM to the heights not seen before. For this and this alone, I believe the figures will be good. Again, in my opinion, if they are I don't see anything stopping us from 0.88. Heck, once we see 0.88 and all-time highs revisited we might get a new high! This is usually the case when things are looking good economically.

Now I wonder..if I was a lowdown stinky rotten banker, I sure would like to see the 0.90 area visited as a place to take profits and seek new and impressive highs to be able to sell at..

In short: I would be of the impression that we have a good chance of seeing NZD reach 0.88 later this week as a new support and then 0.90 as a new resistance. I guess, only time will tell
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