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AUD/USD

  • #77,001
  • May 2, 2014 5:33am May 2, 2014 5:33am
TP: .9000

Going back to sleep
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #77,002
  • May 2, 2014 5:50am May 2, 2014 5:50am
Quoting Harlen
0.91xx i'm coming {image}
Finally drop
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Tdk ada yang salah dengan seekor Gagak. Dibandingkan burung yang terkurung
  • #77,003
  • May 2, 2014 5:50am May 2, 2014 5:50am
Breaking below .9230 we are bearish. Next support .92 round number, if break we see .9150
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #77,004
  • May 2, 2014 6:17am May 2, 2014 6:17am
Ok just come back get stopped on my buy limit , seems strong fa#k NFP.

no plm..
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If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #77,005
  • May 2, 2014 6:32am May 2, 2014 6:32am
Kudos to you guys that were on the right side.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,006
  • May 2, 2014 7:26am May 2, 2014 7:26am
Aud getting stronger across the board
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The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #77,007
  • May 2, 2014 7:27am May 2, 2014 7:27am
Quoting Zircon
Ok just come back get stopped on my buy limit , seems strong fa#k NFP. no plm.. {image}
buy NFP , no worry.
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If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #77,008
  • May 2, 2014 7:39am May 2, 2014 7:39am
9245 was good it plays as resistance now , but NFP has more impact to squeeze volume balance, those guys are doing theirs job pretty well .

As intraday like myself when it is enough it is enough do not care if it will be the bottom or not ( i think it is)...



Trade safe guys.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #77,009
  • May 2, 2014 8:00am May 2, 2014 8:00am
From my vantage point this is too early to call a bottom until .9300 is breached
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #77,010
  • May 2, 2014 8:01am May 2, 2014 8:01am
Chill guys, it's all under control.

I hope....
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #77,011
  • May 2, 2014 8:08am May 2, 2014 8:08am
I don't want to rain on anyone's shorts---- but if you really look at the US Data, it was not good. The drop in unemployment was a total joke. The drop happend because so many people dropped out of the market and are no longer looking for jobs. The more you look through the data, the more you start to realize that the flash "headline" numbers were not really good at all.
  • #77,012
  • May 2, 2014 8:11am May 2, 2014 8:11am
Quoting FX-Petra
I don't want to rain on anyone's shorts---- but if you really look at the US Data, it was not good. The drop in unemployment was a total joke. The drop happend because so many people dropped out of the market and are no longer looking for jobs. The more you look through the data, the more you start to realize that the flash "headline" numbers were not really good at all.
I don't trade fundamentals. Sorry.

I trade price action. I'm all about execution of a strategy rather than trying to spouse a view about the quality of 1 currency over the other.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #77,013
  • May 2, 2014 9:25am May 2, 2014 9:25am
The drop and then full recovery (aka retest), now clears the way for lower lows.
  • #77,014
  • May 2, 2014 10:44am May 2, 2014 10:44am


Quoting Neqrotik
{quote} I don't trade fundamentals. Sorry. I trade price action. I'm all about execution of a strategy rather than trying to spouse a view about the quality of 1 currency over the other.



My only addition would be that its valuable to have some working knowledge of fundamentals but typically (and IMHO) they are usually the catalyst for a move not the underlying purpose.
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #77,015
  • May 2, 2014 10:47am May 2, 2014 10:47am
Quoting FX-Petra
I don't want to rain on anyone's shorts---- but if you really look at the US Data, it was not good. The drop in unemployment was a total joke. The drop happend because so many people dropped out of the market and are no longer looking for jobs. The more you look through the data, the more you start to realize that the flash "headline" numbers were not really good at all.

288k... horrible number!
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #77,016
  • May 2, 2014 11:06am May 2, 2014 11:06am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} 288k... horrible number!
Dude. I totally agree. I just took a simple average of the last 3 years of jobs added:

Yes, the unemployment rate FELL during the 3 years 2011 to 2014 while we missed the 170k a month average (as per an analysis done in July 2013 that stated 170k was the breakeven number to keep pace with people seeking work). Why? This is where the labor participation argument is won.

But so far we have averaged 192K monthly average jobs this year and the unemployment number down to 6.3%. So there, I dont know how people dont think this is a good news release but it is actually alot more pivotal than what many are thinking. And as for wage growth and the persistent participation rate, those are lagging indicators. The rate of job growth is a LEADING ONE, Companies dont add positions to be filled based on how many people are looking for work. They add open positions because there is work available. Regardless of how many people are seeking jobs.

In Sum, this is a huge win
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The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #77,017
  • May 2, 2014 11:23am May 2, 2014 11:23am
I'm not saying that things are not fractional better, on the job creation front. However, it is widley accepted that US needs to produce 250k-300k jobs per month just to break even with new seekers comming into the market. On a bad note, job paricipation is at a 30 year low. That is not a lagging number. It is a real indicator of people who are no longer seeking to be productivley employed and must be supported by some other means.

This is not a competion of who is doing best. Everyone sucks right now. It is a competion to see who sucks the least..... and hoping that is an indicator of who might lead us out of this stagnat state we are in.

As far as not caring about fundamental analysis..... Everything is true on a chart, until it's not. It is changes in fundamental outlooks that drive prices, with conviction, in on direction or another.
  • #77,018
  • May 2, 2014 11:29am May 2, 2014 11:29am
Quoting FX-Petra
I'm not saying that things are not fractional better, on the job creation front. However, it is widley accepted that US needs to produce 250k-300k jobs per month just to break even with new seekers comming into the market. On a bad note, job paricipation is at a 30 year low. .... Everything is true on a chart, until it's not. It is changes in fundamental outlooks that drive prices, with conviction, in on direction or another.

true with the bolded. im taking today with a grain of salt. its friday and the reaction on nfp day almost sometimes doesnt speak to the real trend.

the argument on labor force participation is one that gets me at times though. The fed cant control peoples incentives to work. On the demographics, booms are retiring. Echo boomers are all in grad school. more stay at home moms. etc. etc.

Moreso, is the labor force participation rate even a stat you can fairly compare to prior periods. Given the impact of feminism, massive amounts of kids going to college, retirement, illegal immigration, technology, grey market jobs, changes in government benefit programs.... blah blah blah. theres no way the fed can no what level is the "correct" level of participation.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #77,019
  • May 2, 2014 11:31am May 2, 2014 11:31am
Quoting FX-Petra
I'm not saying that things are not fractional better, on the job creation front. However, it is widley accepted that US needs to produce 250k-300k jobs per month just to break even with new seekers comming into the market. On a bad note, job paricipation is at a 30 year low. That is not a lagging number. It is a real indicator of people who are no longer seeking to be productivley employed and must be supported by some other means. This is not a competion of who is doing best. Everyone sucks right now. It is a competion to see who sucks the least........
250 - 300k widely accepted?!?!?! you cant be serious.

http://time.com/381/why-todays-miser...robably-wrong/

this was written in 2014. You are way off. Matter of fact my number is even less generous.

Listen. Trade how you want. I dont take positions in 1 year and come back a year later to see if my Stop loss was hit or my target price was hit. My strategy works using more frequent time-frames and more closely tied to temporary changes in sentiment. Like I said, its MY strategy, and not yours and YOUR strategy is not mine. Which should stay that way until it isnt cool anymore.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #77,020
  • May 2, 2014 11:38am May 2, 2014 11:38am
For the life of me cant remember where i read it yesterday, but i remember it correctly. it was a nfp preview based around projections the fed would hike by june 2015

at 200k per month by june 2015 unemployment would fall to 5.8%

at 200k per month by june 2015 unemployment would wall to nearly 5%, if there was a half percentage point fall in the labor force participation rate. (0.4% fall occured today so thats already a done deal basically)


wonder what it would be based on 300k a month? Fed is running risk of letting things overheat if they cant even get the fed funds up to 1% by the end of 2015
Twitter: @TrendersGame
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