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AUD/USD

  • #76,921
  • Apr 30, 2014 2:08pm Apr 30, 2014 2:08pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I don't want to be a complainer, but it's time to face facts. This market is just not what it used to be. Less than 50 pip daily range on a day with BIG news and FOMC? Not long ago that would have been a 150-200 pip range day.
FOMC is as per market expectation ......... so far .93 is defended sure will break question is when ......... probably when everyone is shorting .93 with 20 pips stops
  • #76,922
  • Apr 30, 2014 2:30pm Apr 30, 2014 2:30pm
Hope that AUD will go up up and away until .95xx this week
  • #76,923
  • Apr 30, 2014 2:38pm Apr 30, 2014 2:38pm
.9258 short established. Still interested In seeing action to the mid 220s personally.

An interesting calendar dig would be checking other instances of FOMC and NFP being this close together and checking ranges on those occurrences.
(As usual not trade calls. Just expressing targets I see from my own analysis..short feels too risky with NFP coming on...)
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #76,924
  • Apr 30, 2014 4:23pm Apr 30, 2014 4:23pm
Quoting FX-Petra
I don't want to be a complainer, but it's time to face facts. This market is just not what it used to be. Less than 50 pip daily range on a day with BIG news and FOMC? Not long ago that would have been a 150-200 pip range day.
Don't worry, something will happen someday and it will return to abnormal normals. That's why I don't sit and stare at the computer all day. Life's too short. Just pick side of the coin and go with it. The rest is mental masturbation.
  • #76,925
  • Apr 30, 2014 4:41pm Apr 30, 2014 4:41pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
.9258 short established. Still interested In seeing action to the mid 220s personally. An interesting calendar dig would be checking other instances of FOMC and NFP being this close together and checking ranges on those occurrences. (As usual not trade calls. Just expressing targets I see from my own analysis..short feels too risky with NFP coming on...)
Will be interesting with China PMI......
  • #76,926
  • Apr 30, 2014 5:51pm Apr 30, 2014 5:51pm
That's how I see it, By graphics analysis that seems to be bullish, confirmation on the break of yesterday's green candle. I'm short for safety.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #76,927
  • Apr 30, 2014 7:17pm Apr 30, 2014 7:17pm
Current levels of interest:

Short Targets:

.9248
.9235
.9226

Long Targets:

.9467

(Not trade suggestions. Just sharing my own analysis.)
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #76,928
  • Apr 30, 2014 7:20pm Apr 30, 2014 7:20pm
Daily
????
  • #76,929
  • Apr 30, 2014 7:21pm Apr 30, 2014 7:21pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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????
  • #76,930
  • Apr 30, 2014 7:46pm Apr 30, 2014 7:46pm
Decision time here, I put on size shorts 0.9285 with a stop on 2/3rds at 0.9303, rest SL at 0.9323

Aussie Manufacturing PMI was pretty bad tonight, will see how China PMI looks. Mainly basing my fundamental view on the big decline in iron ore prices the past few days.

Bearish set up is invalidated if price pops above 0.9325 area, would signal channel breakout
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Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #76,931
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:00pm Apr 30, 2014 8:00pm
China PMI has to be the funniest economic indicator of them all.


ITS NEVER more that 0.1 away from the estimate.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #76,932
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:13pm Apr 30, 2014 8:13pm
Quoting Citiboy
China PMI has to be the funniest economic indicator of them all. ITS NEVER more that 0.1 away from the estimate.
China PMI isn't much of a market mover that I could see looking back at the history of it. Maybe if we get a huge difference then expected import prices we'll get some more movement.
  • #76,933
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:19pm Apr 30, 2014 8:19pm
Who's gonna put in the big short so this'll run north out of control?
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #76,934
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:25pm Apr 30, 2014 8:25pm
Added more to shorts at 9299, SL at 9305
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #76,935
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:27pm Apr 30, 2014 8:27pm
.93 level tested again and failed. Sure there are lots of sellers at this level.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #76,936
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:28pm Apr 30, 2014 8:28pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
Who's gonna put in the big short so this'll run north out of control?
If you give me half I'll do it.
  • #76,937
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:33pm Apr 30, 2014 8:33pm
Quoting Ssm
.93 level tested again and failed. Sure there are lots of sellers at this level.
Import prices or up, they have the news to run the price up there now.
  • #76,938
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:36pm Apr 30, 2014 8:36pm
Quoting VaBikePacker
Current levels of interest: Short Targets: .9248 .9235 .9226 Long Targets: .9467 (Not trade suggestions. Just sharing my own analysis.)
Add a .9273 short to that..
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #76,939
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:40pm Apr 30, 2014 8:40pm
somehow i didnt get stopped lol.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #76,940
  • Apr 30, 2014 8:41pm Apr 30, 2014 8:41pm
Quoting irongoose
{quote} Import prices or up, they have the news to run the price up there now.
IMO, looks like a rejection.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
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