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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #13,461
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:24am Apr 30, 2014 9:24am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @PatienceFx: Oh ok Where do you see the GBP/USD going? HDA OUT
starting at 2014 open the next significant level is 6969 just shy of 7000

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  • #13,462
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:26am Apr 30, 2014 9:26am
HDA

Maybe I am asking the same question as Maximinus:

Based upon factual observations
The U/J is Down for the moment, The G/U is up for the moment, Therefore, the G/J is neutral as it is for the moment.
If the U/J turn up, thus the G/U is up, therefore, the G/J will go up and be bullish and is to be traded at R/S points already indicated.
If the U/J thus down, the G/U turn down, therefore, the G/J will go bullish and is to be traded at R/S points already indicated.
In a nut shell, although other combinations and time frames, I am looking at 15 minute (1 hour,4 hr, daily, monthly) exist, is this the factual logic I am to understand?
Because basically, other than support resistance lines, all other logarithmic indicators are just measuring the logic I just presented.
Dare I ask, can this logic be this simple?

Thanks
  • #13,463
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:27am Apr 30, 2014 9:27am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} starting at 2014 open the next significant level is 6969 just shy of 7000 {image}
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  • #13,464
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:38am Apr 30, 2014 9:38am
Quoting EllisParrish
HDA Maybe I am asking the same question as Maximinus: Based upon factual observations The U/J is Down for the moment, The G/U is up for the moment, Therefore, the G/J is neutral as it is for the moment. If the U/J turn up, thus the G/U is up, therefore, the G/J will go up and be bullish and is to be traded at R/S points already indicated. If the U/J thus down, the G/U turn down, therefore, the G/J will go bullish and is to be traded at R/S points already indicated. In a nut shell, although other combinations...
@EllisParrish:

Yes the logic is that simple.

However you made an error. You typed, If the U/J thus down, the G/U turn down, therefore, the G/J will go bullish (wrong) the G/J will go bearish (correct)

HDA OUT
  • #13,465
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:38am Apr 30, 2014 9:38am
Quoting EllisParrish
HDA Maybe I am asking the same question as Maximinus: Based upon factual observations The U/J is Down for the moment, The G/U is up for the moment, Therefore, the G/J is neutral as it is for the moment. If the U/J turn up, thus the G/U is up, therefore, the G/J will go up and be bullish and is to be traded at R/S points already indicated. If the U/J thus down, the G/U turn down, therefore, the G/J will go bullish and is to be traded at R/S points already indicated. In a nut shell, although other combinations and time frames, I am looking at 15 minute...
Opps, I meant "if the u/J is down, the G/U turn down, therefore, the G/J will go "bearish"... sorry
  • #13,466
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:42am Apr 30, 2014 9:42am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} starting at 2014 open the next significant level is 6969 just shy of 7000 {image}
@PatienceFx:

So I have been patient for 6 months holding long on the GBP/USD with an exit target of 1.7000 -

Lets see what happens

Thank you for your chart

HDA OUT
  • #13,467
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:43am Apr 30, 2014 9:43am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} starting at 2014 open the next significant level is 6969 just shy of 7000 {image}
Don't be shy a double 69 is a hot & sexy position.

Ok I'm out.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #13,468
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:47am Apr 30, 2014 9:47am
if uj is 70% responsible for gj then the uj daily pattern so far is not helping it

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  • #13,469
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:50am Apr 30, 2014 9:50am
Quoting maximinus
{quote} That's an easy one, wait for the break out and retest of S/R turning into R/S depending of the direction of the break.
@Maximinus:

This post was written almost TWO days ago on Monday, April 28, 2014 by EllisParrish
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...63#post7433463


Notice anything familiar as it relates to your plan ????

EllisParrish wrote:

Break out occurs 172.60/70 Buy
1st Resistance is 172.80
Second is 173.00/20
Third is 173.60/80 Tough level
4th is 174.83 level

Break down occurs about 171.10/00 Sell
1st support 170.50/30
2nd support 169.80/60 Tough level
3rd support 168.75/95
4th support 168.00/167.90

As far as the monthly candlesticks: We have had a trading range between 163.83 and 174.83
With a fall in January and progressive movement up February and March with April, though green, neutral and between Marches trading range reflecting the end of the developed triangle.
The beginning of the month may open with a doji still within the triangle and not break up or down into the ranges I have listed above until news.

Therefore, today we broke through a resistance line and recovered immediately to our current range of 172.40/20, momentum is up.
A breakout within the triangle above 172.4 is a buy watching resistance @ 172.50/60 then breakout
A break down, especially on news, has a lot of room to run to 170.50.
I sell at 170.20 with support at 172.00 strong
Support @ 171.71
Support @ 171.42
Support 171.25

I chose these levels on current candle stick highs and lows and not on pivot points or Fibonacci.
I am sure there are good argument for Fibonacci but my R/S point are very close to their levels and thus ranges.
Also, HDA had pointed out Currency Options with large numbers sitting at some of these R/S points. I am sure
Banks are protecting assets and these location might add weight to the strength of the specific R/S locations.

HDA OUT
  • #13,470
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:52am Apr 30, 2014 9:52am
Quoting PatienceFx
if uj is 70% responsible for gj then the uj daily pattern so far is not helping it {image}
@PatienceFx:

I have one word for you, PATIENCE



HDA OUT
  • #13,471
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:53am Apr 30, 2014 9:53am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Maximinus: This post was written almost TWO days ago on Monday, April 28, 2014 by EllisParrish Notice anything familiar as it relates to your plan ???? EllisParrish wrote: Break out occurs 172.60/70 Buy 1st Resistance is 172.80 Second is 173.00/20 Third is 173.60/80 Tough level 4th is 174.83 level Break down occurs about 171.10/00 Sell 1st support 170.50/30 2nd support 169.80/60 Tough level 3rd support 168.75/95 4th support 168.00/167.90 As far as the monthly candlesticks: We have had a trading range between 163.83 and 174.83 With a fall...

Thanks, but I don't trade GBPJPY. Since several weeks I trade onely UJ and USDCHF. Charts are cleaner than for GBP or EUR.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #13,472
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:53am Apr 30, 2014 9:53am
Quoting Mr.C
Good day guys. Geppy on the menu. Pending sell placed @ 172,540. SL @ 172,980. Good luck and let's have some fun with profit on top today!
Closed today's Geppy short at the entry price. Don't like what I see on my screen. Done for the day. Take care!
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #13,473
  • Apr 30, 2014 9:59am Apr 30, 2014 9:59am
Quoting maximinus
{quote} Thanks, but I don't trade GBPJPY. Since several weeks I trade onely UJ and USDCHF. Charts are cleaner than for GBP or EUR.
@maximinus:

Understood.

I was just showing you, that based on what you wrote that you would do, if you were trading this pair, he wrote the same plan two days ago.

My point is, you are both seeing the same thing.

EllisParrish wrote:

Break out occurs 172.60/70 Buy
1st Resistance is 172.80
Second is 173.00/20
Third is 173.60/80 Tough level
4th is 174.83 level

Break down occurs about 171.10/00 Sell
1st support 170.50/30
2nd support 169.80/60 Tough level
3rd support 168.75/95
4th support 168.00/167.90

And YOU wrote:

That's an easy one, wait for the break out and retest of S/R turning into R/S depending of the direction of the break.


HDA OUT
  • #13,474
  • Apr 30, 2014 10:00am Apr 30, 2014 10:00am
Quoting maximinus
{quote} Don't be shy a double 69 is a hot & sexy position. Ok I'm out.
i got so excited that

tp 6969

Attached Image
  • #13,475
  • Apr 30, 2014 10:05am Apr 30, 2014 10:05am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} i got so excited that tp 6969 {image}
More you wait for the climax, better it is. I think that I read it in a treaty written by one of your compatriote

GL
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #13,476
  • Apr 30, 2014 10:05am Apr 30, 2014 10:05am
and since uj and gu are flying in the opposite direction, i am avoiding gj for now

i will reconsider gj when uj hits support and enters missionary with gu not 69

Attached Image
  • #13,477
  • Apr 30, 2014 10:05am Apr 30, 2014 10:05am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @maximinus: Understood. I was just showing you, that based on what you wrote that you would do, if you were trading this pair, he wrote the same plan two days ago. My point is, you are both seeing the same thing. EllisParrish wrote: Break out occurs 172.60/70 Buy 1st Resistance is 172.80 Second is 173.00/20 Third is 173.60/80 Tough level 4th is 174.83 level Break down occurs about 171.10/00 Sell 1st support 170.50/30 2nd support 169.80/60 Tough level 3rd support 168.75/95 4th support 168.00/167.90 And YOU wrote: That's an easy one, wait...
I got It, Thanks
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #13,478
  • Apr 30, 2014 10:07am Apr 30, 2014 10:07am
Quoting PatienceFx
and since uj and gu are flying in the opposite direction, i am avoiding gj for now i will reconsider gj when uj hits support and enters missionary with gu not 69 {image}
He recommands also varying positions
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #13,479
  • Apr 30, 2014 10:07am Apr 30, 2014 10:07am
HDA

Yes, thank you, I just saw the error.
Your logical observations all previously presented now make a tremendous amount of sense to me and the light has come on.
I have tried to look at this currency pair from every mathematical view but there has always been some sort of drag, I'll call it,
as to not really ever coming together cleanly, which has always meant a lot of stress to the point of fear of trading it. Why?
Because math cannot lie, because it is based upon logic, and it did in the end lie. The reason it did is because my foundation of the logic was flawed
in that I not see nor could I then comprehend the basic building blocks of the separation and equality of the currency and their strong, direct interaction.
Trading to me is not a gamble but patiently identifying a statistical advantage and properly acting upon it.
Thank you very much for you patient insight(s) and I look forward to learning more as I revise my methods.

EP
  • #13,480
  • Apr 30, 2014 10:20am Apr 30, 2014 10:20am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @PatienceFx: I have one word for you, PATIENCE HDA OUT
My favorite word
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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