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  • #13,361
  • Apr 28, 2014 11:59am Apr 28, 2014 11:59am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Well said - 'twas a good rant and if I may I will add another - those who ask question, you take time to make a reply and there is no acknowledgement or thanks for your effort.......that makes you wonder why you bother to try and help people......
- sad, but so true.
  • #13,362
  • Apr 28, 2014 12:03pm Apr 28, 2014 12:03pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} FX-RAY if you are watching, give it one last SHOT, come back and share, many traders appreciated your efforts.
Each time I see an invisible red flag on this thread I will think "Ray? Is that you??'
  • #13,363
  • Apr 28, 2014 3:03pm Apr 28, 2014 3:03pm
Boy I wish I had something useful to add to this tread right now. I really was all over this pair last 4 weeks but now I am totally sideways on her. Bumming me out. I'm holding short although very unconfidently...
  • #13,364
  • Apr 28, 2014 3:10pm Apr 28, 2014 3:10pm
looking to shot if i see a signal at zone: 172.40/60

long with signal at zones: 171.90 - 172.10 or 171.20/40

waiting patiently with alerts set
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #13,365
  • Apr 28, 2014 3:22pm Apr 28, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting Kismet180
{quote} HDA -- Glad you are back. I agree that it would be nice to see FX Ray as well, but I think the thread has become a bit too agressive about disproving others views, and this is not conducive to enjoying stress-free trading. I look forward to your input and experience, and seeing the focus of this thread getting back to tackling thenbeast and away from attacking each other.
@Kismet180:

Had to pop out for a bit, just getting around to respond to your post, sorry about that. Well, lets see whats happening on the GBP/JPY.

Talk to me, lets get the dialogue going and lets see who these detractors are if they will show themselves and we will deal with each detractor accordingly. We are here to learn from each other.

Is the GBP/JPY bullish, is it bearish. Lets go, Lets go, Lets go. I will only be around until Wednesday, April 30, when my wife gets back. Talk to me, what do you see?

HDA OUT
  • #13,366
  • Apr 28, 2014 3:25pm Apr 28, 2014 3:25pm
Quoting hollowhead
{quote} Each time I see an invisible red flag on this thread I will think "Ray? Is that you??'
@hollowhead:

FX-Ray does not sign in invisible, so that invisible red flag is probably mine. I am across 5 threads

HDA OUT
  • #13,367
  • Edited 5:12pm Apr 28, 2014 4:40pm | Edited 5:12pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Kismet180: Had to pop out for a bit, just getting around to respond to your post, sorry about that. Well, lets see whats happening on the GBP/JPY. Talk to me, lets get the dialogue going and lets see who these detractors are if they will show themselves and we will deal with each detractor accordingly. We are here to learn from each other. Is the GBP/JPY bullish, is it bearish. Lets go, Lets go, Lets go. I will only be around until Wednesday, April 30, when my wife gets back. Talk to me, what do you see? HDA OUT
HDA -- I honestly think that the pattern that started in Dec/Jan is so tight that GJ is primed for a big move, up to 179.50 if data releases keep picking up. However, the tendency for Ukraine to weigh on the yen pairs makes me think that if the data this week is not exceptional then the pair is in for a very bad month of May. May and July look to typically be either stagnant or bad for the pairs. That said, I feel like GJ might push towards 173 near the top of the daily bollinger band leading into the GDP release later, but I think if it fails to stay above 173/172.80 after the release it will head back towards 172. If Putin rides a white tiger shirtless into Ukraine declaring then I think the pair heads to 165.

Adding: I think that 172.75/60 is the next area of resistance if it moves back and holds above 172.50.
  • #13,368
  • Apr 28, 2014 5:15pm Apr 28, 2014 5:15pm
Quoting Kismet180
{quote} HDA -- I honestly think that the pattern that started in Dec/Jan is so tight that GJ is primed for a big move, up to 179.50 if data releases keep picking up. However, the tendency for Ukraine to weigh on the yen pairs makes me think that if the data this week is not exceptional then the pair is in for a very bad month of May. May and July look to typically be either stagnant or bad for the pairs. That said, I feel like GJ might push towards 173 near the top of the daily bollinger band leading into the GDP release later, but I think if it...
@Kismet180:

I had to run out again, sorry about that, just got back in. Gonna shower and come back an chat. There's lots to discuss with what you have written.

HDA OUT
  • #13,369
  • Apr 28, 2014 6:25pm Apr 28, 2014 6:25pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} Is the GBP/JPY bullish, is it bearish. Lets go, Lets go, Lets go. I will only be around until Wednesday, April 30, when my wife gets back. Talk to me, what do you see? HDA OUT
Since the beginning of the year on a Weekly/Daily chart, I see candlesticks that blew through the upper Bollinger band creating a new high and faded back to the SMA/EMA lines forming a new support line low and therefore creating a Bullish Symmetrical Triangle that is getting tighter and tighter in it's R/S ranges.

Therefore, the pressure is building during this consolidation period and the probability of the direction of the breakout is bullish. But, until it actually price breaks out up or down, confirmation, I would be hedging on direction.

In our current cycle of economic calendar of events I would lean Bullish but with the possible need of currency security perceived due to the Ukrainian Issue, I would hedge neutral. I believe the time frame on the breakout/down is before May 5.
  • #13,370
  • Apr 28, 2014 7:07pm Apr 28, 2014 7:07pm
Quoting EllisParrish
{quote} Since the beginning of the year on a Weekly/Daily chart, I see candlesticks that blew through the upper Bollinger band creating a new high and faded back to the SMA/EMA lines forming a new support line low and therefore creating a Bullish Symmetrical Triangle that is getting tighter and tighter in it's R/S ranges. Therefore, the pressure is building during this consolidation period and the probability of the direction of the breakout is bullish. But, until it actually price breaks out up or down, confirmation, I would be hedging on direction....
@EllisParrish:

I agree with you 100% - I have asked for traders to submit their point of view on the market before it moves in order for us to learn more about how we analyse the market and to see where we made our mistakes.

Here's your home work, you have not mentioned any levels to watch and what action you would take based on the levels you are watching.

This is critical for planning your trade wether the market goes up or down.

Even though you are correct in your view point, you have not planned your trade for any eventuality.

In other words, what are you going to do if it gets to X level or Y level.

When we plan our trades for both the bear and bull scenario, focusing on the levels to watch, that is how the stress-free trading comes about. Because once the market starts to move, we are prepared and we know what to look for when it happens.

Do your homework now and let me hear your analysis with levels for both BEARS and BULLS

Don't forget to look at the MONTHLY chart also because we are 2 days away from the candle closing.

Give me levels, give me targets for both the bulls and the bears.

HDA OUT
  • #13,371
  • Apr 28, 2014 7:10pm Apr 28, 2014 7:10pm
Quoting Kismet180
{quote} HDA -- I honestly think that the pattern that started in Dec/Jan is so tight that GJ is primed for a big move, up to 179.50 if data releases keep picking up. However, the tendency for Ukraine to weigh on the yen pairs makes me think that if the data this week is not exceptional then the pair is in for a very bad month of May. May and July look to typically be either stagnant or bad for the pairs. That said, I feel like GJ might push towards 173 near the top of the daily bollinger band leading into the GDP release later, but I think if it...
@Kismet180:

I am waiting on EllisParrish to give me some levels to see what he is seeing before I respond to your post. This is how the discussion starts. Everyone who is participating needs to put there view on the table and then we discuss.

HDA OUT
  • #13,372
  • Apr 28, 2014 7:49pm Apr 28, 2014 7:49pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Kismet180: I am waiting on EllisParrish to give me some levels to see what he is seeing before I respond to your post. This is how the discussion starts. Everyone who is participating needs to put there view on the table and then we discuss. HDA OUT
Understood.
  • #13,373
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:12pm Apr 28, 2014 8:12pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Kismet180: I am waiting on EllisParrish to give me some levels to see what he is seeing before I respond to your post. This is how the discussion starts. Everyone who is participating needs to put there view on the table and then we discuss. HDA OUT
Break out occurs 172.60/70 Buy
1st Resistance is 172.80
Second is 173.00/20
Third is 173.60/80 Tough level
4th is 174.83 level

Break down occurs about 171.10/00 Sell
1st support 170.50/30
2nd support 169.80/60 Tough level
3rd support 168.75/95
4th support 168.00/167.90

As far as the monthly candlesticks: We have had a trading range between 163.83 and 174.83
With a fall in January and progressive movement up February and March with April, though green, neutral and between Marches trading range reflecting the end of the developed triangle.
The beginning of the month may open with a doji still within the triangle and not break up or down into the ranges I have listed above until news.

Therefore, today we broke through a resistance line and recovered immediately to our current range of 172.40/20, momentum is up.
A breakout within the triangle above 172.4 is a buy watching resistance @ 172.50/60 then breakout
A break down, especially on news, has a lot of room to run to 170.50.
I sell at 170.20 with support at 172.00 strong
Support @ 171.71
Support @ 171.42
Support 171.25

I chose these levels on current candle stick highs and lows and not on pivot points or Fibonacci.
I am sure there are good argument for Fibonacci but my R/S point are very close to their levels and thus ranges.
Also, HDA had pointed out Currency Options with large numbers sitting at some of these R/S points. I am sure
Banks are protecting assets and these location might add weight to the strength of the specific R/S locations.
  • #13,374
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:16pm Apr 28, 2014 8:16pm
Quoting EllisParrish
{quote} Break out occurs 172.60/70 Buy 1st Resistance is 172.80 Second is 173.00/20 Third is 173.60/80 Tough level 4th is 174.83 level Break down occurs about 171.10/00 Sell 1st support 170.50/30 2nd support 169.80/60 Tough level 3rd support 168.75/95 4th support 168.00/167.90 As far as the monthly candlesticks: We have had a trading range between 163.83 and 174.83 With a fall in January and progressive movement up February and March with April, though green, neutral and between Marches trading range reflecting the end of the developed triangle....
@EllisParrish:

There you go, now you are planning your trade. Give me a few minutes to go over everything and then we discuss

HDA OUT
  • #13,375
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:30pm Apr 28, 2014 8:30pm
https://charts.mql5.com/4/566/gbpjpy...investment.png

do whatever you wish to do

[ balance is week open ]
  • #13,376
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:37pm Apr 28, 2014 8:37pm
Quoting PatienceFx
https://charts.mql5.com/4/566/gbpjpy...investment.png do whatever you wish to do [ balance is week open ]
for those still confused, rsi is above 50 so there is no option but to buy. tough resistance at 172.46 so there is no option but to consider it as tp on longs, and between the levels the range is just 34 pips so there is no option but to scalp

and if you are still confused then do whatever you wish to do lol
  • #13,377
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:52pm Apr 28, 2014 8:52pm
Quoting Kismet180
{quote} HDA -- I honestly think that the pattern that started in Dec/Jan is so tight that GJ is primed for a big move, up to 179.50 if data releases keep picking up. However, the tendency for Ukraine to weigh on the yen pairs makes me think that if the data this week is not exceptional then the pair is in for a very bad month of May. May and July look to typically be either stagnant or bad for the pairs. That said, I feel like GJ might push towards 173 near the top of the daily bollinger band leading into the GDP release later, but I think if it...
@Kismet180:

Three major news events this week will decide what is going to happen on GBP/JPY.

1. GDP data
2. FOMC
3. NFP

Volatility has been at its lowest levels since 2012 and we are expecting a huge break out. It all starts tomorrow.

If we get a positive number on the GDP data, we can look long term to target 180.00

Your resistance level is correct and once that level is cleared and the market holds above it, then we are on our way UP

If we get a negative number on the GDP data and the support doesn't hold, 171.20 then 170.00 we are on our way back down.

The good news is on the MONTHLY with just under 2 days to go for the close of the candle.

The chances of 163.86 being taken out in 2 days before the monthly candle closes is very remote and if 163.86 does not get taken out, then the monthly would have created a HIGHER LOW

So as it stands right now, the MONTHLY is extremely BULLISH with room to run.

I will cover more in EllisParrish posts

Remember now, I am not a day trader, I am a position trader, so I am looking for entry to then hold.

HDA OUT
  • #13,378
  • Apr 28, 2014 9:08pm Apr 28, 2014 9:08pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Kismet180: Three major news events this week will decide what is going to happen on GBP/JPY. 1. GDP data 2. FOMC 3. NFP Volatility has been at its lowest levels since 2012 and we are expecting a huge break out. It all starts tomorrow. If we get a positive number on the GDP data, we can look long term to target 180.00 Your resistance level is correct and once that level is cleared and the market holds above it, then we are on our way UP If we get a negative number on the GDP data and the support doesn't hold, 171.20 then 170.00 we are on...
fully agree on this.
  • #13,379
  • Apr 28, 2014 9:33pm Apr 28, 2014 9:33pm
Quoting EllisParrish
{quote} Break out occurs 172.60/70 Buy 1st Resistance is 172.80 Second is 173.00/20 Third is 173.60/80 Tough level 4th is 174.83 level Break down occurs about 171.10/00 Sell 1st support 170.50/30 2nd support 169.80/60 Tough level 3rd support 168.75/95 4th support 168.00/167.90 As far as the monthly candlesticks: We have had a trading range between 163.83 and 174.83 With a fall in January and progressive movement up February and March with April, though green, neutral and between Marches trading range reflecting the end of the developed triangle....
@EllisParrish:

You truly understand how to analyze the market and you have demonstrated a lot of maturity in how you have presented your trading plan. You have clearly identified the levels. You know exactly what to look for, you are prepared regardless of the direction the market could go and this is what separates the successful traders from the unsuccessful traders.

Between kismet180 and yourself - none of you mention the USD/JPY

All your analysis was done only on the GBP/JPY

Remember, the JPY is the base currency for the GBP/JPY and you must analyze that currency pair as well.

If you look on the MONTHLY of the USD/JPY, you would see that with only 1 day to go, The MONTHLY will also be creating a HIGHER LOW, making the USD/JPY very BULLISH also, with all intent to target 105.233 resistance, which is currently almost some 300 pips away which is currently trading at 102.475 at the time of typing this post 12:33am Eastern

We can't just limit our analysis to just the GBP/JPY only.

We first need to know the levels, why the market will respond to those levels and then plan our trade.

OPTIONS is just a tool used to identify areas of significant volume and if those areas get breached, it is an early warning sign that your trade may not work out and you should be looking to EXIT and NOT to incur large draw downs.

So once an OPTIONS BARRIER is breached especially more than one intraday you should immediately be preparing to abort your trade if the barrier is not in your favour. OPTIONS is an early warning FACTUAL tool and not an algorithmic indicator.

If the OPTIONS BARRIER holds it is also a FACTUAL tool that says, hey, you can continue to hold your trade.

Here is where the stress free trading comes in - you have your plan, your trading in the direction of the trend, you have your levels, you have your FACTUAL reasons, You have your early warning system to say hey, the trade is not working, you know what to look for, you are prepared as a BULL, you are prepared as a BEAR, now you just need to sit back relax, and wait for the market to show you what it is going to do and you trade it.

VERY VERY VERY WELL DONE



HDA OUT
  • #13,380
  • Apr 28, 2014 10:11pm Apr 28, 2014 10:11pm
Quoting Kismet180
{quote} HDA -- I honestly think that the pattern that started in Dec/Jan is so tight that GJ is primed for a big move, up to 179.50 if data releases keep picking up. However, the tendency for Ukraine to weigh on the yen pairs makes me think that if the data this week is not exceptional then the pair is in for a very bad month of May. May and July look to typically be either stagnant or bad for the pairs. That said, I feel like GJ might push towards 173 near the top of the daily bollinger band...
@Kismet180:

As you evolve as a trader, you will slowly learn not to feel and think, but to react to what the market is showing you. If a trader finds himself or herself feeling and thinking, it means that the trader has not done his/her homework and does not have a clear plan.

When you have a clear plan, a good trader reacts, not feels

So if you find yourself says words like that, that's a clear warning sign that it's time to create a trading plan.

Keep up the good work

HDA OUT
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