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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,921
  • Feb 8, 2014 12:19am Feb 8, 2014 12:19am
Thank you nollej for your answer. Now I understand. Looking back at it, it's actually pretty obvious. I wasn't thorough enough in studying the chart.
  • #3,922
  • Apr 4, 2014 8:20am Apr 4, 2014 8:20am
Greetings. Did anyone trade the NFP news bar taught by Seneca pilot?
  • #3,923
  • Apr 7, 2014 6:55pm Apr 7, 2014 6:55pm
" Liver alone,,,Cheese my Seester "
  • #3,924
  • Apr 10, 2014 6:03pm Apr 10, 2014 6:03pm
Quoting TraderT
Greetings. Did anyone trade the NFP news bar taught by Seneca pilot?
Not NFP but I use it for news on other pairs in an attempt to get a bounce trade off the 15min candle straight after the high or low of the news.
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,925
  • Apr 26, 2014 6:07am Apr 26, 2014 6:07am
Quoting Flipper58
{quote} You see, here we go again. Who said Minuteman needed help? From what I've read around here in the last 8 months I think I've worked that one out. After 20 years on forums I've got a few categories for people I come across and one of them is wanker, you are very quickly approaching that one! It's not about whether he is profitable, who f........g cares! It's about the info he's given and whether you can put it to good use. This isn't a dick swinging contest or at least it shouldn't be. It's a place you come to learn, not be a bloody keyboard...
firstly, out of respect to the OP, I've submitted my last question on this thread to the admin. to clean it up and get rid of it. I asked it before reading the first 90 pages and the last 10 pages

Secondly, Flipper58, your comment is so good. many good comments on this thread, this was one I really liked

thirdly, thanks to the OP. I wish the best karma possible to come your way

by truly dissecting (slowly) what the OP says... I could truly see and especially feel that he was trying to see things from the point of view of the person trying to learn and who knew absolutely nothing so that that person could apply the material in a real time environment.

The OP kept saying 'you have to do the work', 'you have to do the work'. Based on my observation, he ended up spoon feeding everybody and nobody had to do ANY work. They just had to read and jot down a bunch of very key notes to memorize.

He went from "i will teach you how to make orange juice, but you will have to do some work yourself".... to..... "I've decided to make orange juice for you, found this nice glass to pour it into and have decided to get you a napkin in case you want to wipe the corner of your lips after drinking it. Here you go".

It wasn't enough for some.
  • #3,926
  • Apr 29, 2014 11:01am Apr 29, 2014 11:01am
I just find this thread. I have an experience of 15 years as a retail trader, for this reason I can say that this thread is pure gold, thanks senecapilot.
  • #3,927
  • May 1, 2014 5:08am May 1, 2014 5:08am
Quoting chiba_san
{quote} firstly, out of respect to the OP, I've submitted my last question on this thread to the admin. to clean it up and get rid of it. I asked it before reading the first 90 pages and the last 10 pages Secondly, Flipper58, your comment is so good. many good comments on this thread, this was one I really liked thirdly, thanks to the OP. I wish the best karma possible to come your way by truly dissecting (slowly) what the OP says... I could truly see and especially feel that he was trying to see things from the point of view of the person trying...


Chiba, the OP is a philanthropist through and through and wanted nothing more than to give something back to people that were either new to trading or struggling to make it work but unfortunately a few people, as is the norm around here, just couldn't see that. For anyone that followed this thread and did the work it is pure gold, it would have taken me years to realize a few things that SP freely gave away which would have taken him thousands of hours of screen time to learn. I sincerely wish this thread was still active as I have the greatest respect for the man and the knowledge I gained here has formed a substantial part of my trading plan, rules and method. However, I never expect to see him back and I don't blame him one bit, I hope he's making millions!
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,928
  • Edited 10:01am May 5, 2014 9:18am | Edited 10:01am
I tested around two years of data, by hand, fading the previous daily high and low.

My rules were you can take two trades a day, 1 sell at the previous high, 1 buy at the previous daily low.

Orders were set up the night before using the NY close and left until required.

Stop 0.2 daily ATR, target 0.4 daily ATR.

Over the past year or so the method is positive, take it out further though and the edge disappears.

There are months at a time, using the above system were you can lose lots of money, from October 2012, to March 2013, you would have had a drawdown of ~25%.

There are times, when the system (which I used) gets hammered and times when it works OK.

Results from 31st of May 2012 threw 30 of April 2014:
Lots won - 253
Lots Lost - 261
Win ratio - 0.33 (almost bang on)
This doesn't include spread

It is pretty much a net even strategy over those two years if you don't include spread.


I think level trading can work, I just can't seem to get my finger on a style which suits fits around my work.
  • #3,929
  • May 5, 2014 7:01pm May 5, 2014 7:01pm
Quoting Flipper58
Thanks for that Chris, much appreciated and yes, I'm using midnight Eastern.
Hi Flipper,
May I ask who is your broker with EST Midnight open?
Thanks
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #3,930
  • May 5, 2014 11:55pm May 5, 2014 11:55pm
Hi Mike,

I use Hotforex but their server time is set to GMT +2. What was the post you were referring to?
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,931
  • May 6, 2014 12:15am May 6, 2014 12:15am
Hi Mike,

I think I now know what you're referring to. I have a daily open line on my charts which is set to Midnight EST or 5am London time.
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,932
  • May 6, 2014 4:46pm May 6, 2014 4:46pm
Quoting Flipper58
Hi Mike, I think I now know what you're referring to. I have a daily open line on my charts which is set to Midnight EST or 5am London time.
Thanks.so you do that manually.
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #3,933
  • May 6, 2014 5:57pm May 6, 2014 5:57pm
Quoting MCRotter
I tested around two years of data, by hand, fading the previous daily high and low. My rules were you can take two trades a day, 1 sell at the previous high, 1 buy at the previous daily low. Orders were set up the night before using the NY close and left until required. Stop 0.2 daily ATR, target 0.4 daily ATR. Over the past year or so the method is positive, take it out further though and the edge disappears. There are months at a time, using the above system were you can lose lots of money, from October 2012, to March 2013, you would have had...
I made a point about this earlier in the thread, as with all strategies that use technical analysis you have no edge, it is no better than a coin toss and over a decent test size will nearly always come out at 50/50. You have to combine technical analysis with money management to give it an edge, in this case accepting more stop outs and getting a few big wins (although thats is not the only viable combination)

What technical strategies do give you is a structure to work within, nothing more, I would say that about 95% of traders (especially here (this forum, not this thread)), even very experienced retail traders believe otherwise.
tradewith60
  • #3,934
  • May 6, 2014 6:17pm May 6, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I made a point about this earlier in the thread, as with all strategies that use technical analysis you have no edge, it is no better than a coin toss and over a decent test size will nearly always come out at 50/50. You have to combine technical analysis with money management to give it an edge, in this case accepting more stop outs and getting a few big wins (although thats is not the only viable combination) What technical strategies do give you is a structure to work within, nothing more, I would say that about 95% of traders (especially...
I agree with your post.

Money management + price action + analysis + patience = closest thing to the holy grail.

The "holy grail" is wrongly defined....even the best traders have a loss once in a while.
Take what the market gives you.
  • #3,935
  • May 6, 2014 6:25pm May 6, 2014 6:25pm
Quoting mike1349
{quote} Thanks.so you do that manually.
No Mike, I use this.

Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 daily_open_line.ex4   2 KB | 375 downloads
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,936
  • May 6, 2014 6:35pm May 6, 2014 6:35pm
Quoting Flipper58
{quote} No Mike, I use this. {file}
Mike,

If you download and use this indi go back a few years on your preferred pairs and watch how price reacts to it. I only trade H4 these days but I still find it very useful.
Per Ardua Ad Astra - Through Adversity To The Stars
  • #3,937
  • May 6, 2014 7:16pm May 6, 2014 7:16pm
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I made a point about this earlier in the thread, as with all strategies that use technical analysis you have no edge, it is no better than a coin toss and over a decent test size will nearly always come out at 50/50. You have to combine technical analysis with money management to give it an edge, in this case accepting more stop outs and getting a few big wins (although thats is not the only viable combination) What technical strategies do give you is a structure to work within, nothing more, I would say that about 95% of traders (especially...
What an utterly stupid thing to say. Money management doesn't provide an edge. Period. It never has. Nobody has ever shown it to do so. The only rumblings of someone somewhere pulling a rabbit out of his money management hat has only ever been nothing more than rumor with no evidence behind it.

Money management is about risk control. Something you have no grasp at all on. I can't remember when I put you on ignore, but it would have been a long fucking time ago. You continue to prove yourself to be worthy of being ignored. People like you are a danger to yourselves and others with your bullshit. Why anyone would take you seriously raises questions on the merits of the human races existence as a whole!

Was it a good trade idea? Was it a bad trade idea? Any other questions past those should be about risk control, and nothing more. Anything else is just convoluted nonsense engineered to confuse yourself and others, often with the intention and primary effect of hiding or confusing the increase in risk being undertaken... and for the truly stupid they can, and do, find ways to hide from themselves their sooner-or-later account implosion while pretending it won't ever happen, like the person who jumps off a roof and feels like all is well because they haven't yet turned into mush on the pavement.

It impresses me how some of you so eagerly embrace the warmth radiating out of the bullshit that pervades forums like this, and are so ready to add to it with your own brand of garbage. If you had two brain cells to rub together you'd be able to keep yourselves warm that way. Alas, you don't.

Like a dog chasing its tail, you all amuse me to no end.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #3,938
  • May 6, 2014 7:31pm May 6, 2014 7:31pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} What an utterly stupid thing to say. Money management doesn't provide an edge. Period. It never has. Nobody has ever shown it to do so. The only rumblings of someone somewhere pulling a rabbit out of his money management hat has only ever been nothing more than rumor with no evidence behind it. Money management is about risk control. Something you have no grasp at all on. I can't remember when I put you on ignore, but it would have been a long fucking time ago. You continue to prove yourself to be worthy of being ignored. People like you...
I never said money management provides an edge. What a bizarre rant!
tradewith60
  • #3,939
  • May 6, 2014 7:39pm May 6, 2014 7:39pm
Quoting 60minuteman
You have to combine technical analysis with money management to give it an edge
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I never said money management provides an edge. What a bizarre rant!
If you want to split hairs then you said tech + mm... but are you really that pathetic that you would waste this forums time splitting such pedantic hairs?

You don't know what an edge is. Here's a hint for you, it's not the same thing as extending the inevitable. Businesses that flourish don't do so by pretending the bank isn't about to close on them. Casino's don't flourish due to some nonsense MM. They have an edge because the numbers are on their side... it's that simple.

Any idiot can go all-in. Just because they happen to win doesn't mean they have an edge. Just because they can do it a few times in a row doesn't mean they have an edge.

Luck isn't an edge. And neither is stupidity. Keep twisting the numbers around, shifting the risk / reward, checking the moon cycles, etc. It's all the same ending.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #3,940
  • May 6, 2014 7:46pm May 6, 2014 7:46pm
Quoting nubcake
{quote} {quote} If you want to split hairs then you said tech + mm... but are you really that pathetic that you would waste this forums time splitting such pedantic hairs? You don't know what an edge is. Here's a hint for you, it's not the same thing as extending the inevitable. Businesses that flourish don't do so by pretending the bank isn't about to close on them. Casino's don't flourish due to some nonsense MM. They have an edge because the numbers are on their side... it's that simple. Any idiot can go all-in. Just because they happen to win...
Your attitude makes me think perhaps you are a frustrated loser, but that's no reason to ruin another thread. I respect your opinion but I disagree.
tradewith60
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