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  • #4,021
  • Apr 24, 2014 3:46pm Apr 24, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Hi Olu, What do you think about these wedges for Wolfe Waves? As I understand it, we need to identify Point 2 as the "anchor" point, and it needs to be a very clear swing point. The other points then are built off Point 2. The completed wedge in Black gave Entry possibilities even tho Point 5 was Squishy. The current wedge in Blue, if true, is searching for Point 5 now. Point 1 was a pure guess based on congested Fractals and a possible slope to Point 3. Points 2 and 3 are more reasonable guesses with Weekly Fractals in place. In time Point 4 may...
your black WW is in the same region where I pointed earlier. The problem of your black WW is that the target was never reached. It stoped at point 2 of the blue WW and didnīt continue high.
  • #4,022
  • Apr 24, 2014 4:02pm Apr 24, 2014 4:02pm
Nat. Gas:

Praying for a break of support to get back in.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,023
  • Apr 24, 2014 4:13pm Apr 24, 2014 4:13pm
Gold:

I'm thinking a run back to 1315-1320 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,024
  • Apr 24, 2014 4:24pm Apr 24, 2014 4:24pm
RUT: 2 consecutive closes back below the 20dma. Bulls need to pull something out of the bag here. Whether they will or not? I don't know (of course) but I don't think they will; maybe 55/45 says they won't. I'm not into coin-flips so for now I'm out of ES longs which have been good to me lately.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,025
  • Apr 24, 2014 5:00pm Apr 24, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Hi Olu, What do you think about these wedges for Wolfe Waves? As I understand it, we need to identify Point 2 as the "anchor" point, and it needs to be a very clear swing point. The other points then are built off Point 2. The completed wedge in Black gave Entry possibilities even tho Point 5 was Squishy. The current wedge in Blue, if true, is searching for Point 5 now. Point 1 was a pure guess based on congested Fractals and a possible slope to Point 3. Points 2 and 3 are more reasonable guesses with Weekly Fractals in place. In time Point 4 may...
Hi AG

Thanks for your post . I have cut your image and added a possible WW scenario to it. This is looking good and might qualify for a live trade if price behaves itself. As you know I think gold on the weekly chart is tracing a triangle structure and I am expecting some more downside and a move to the 1350 area. Your chart might be saying the same thing.
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,026
  • Apr 24, 2014 5:04pm Apr 24, 2014 5:04pm
Quoting srt
Nat. Gas: Praying for a break of support to get back in. {image}

I think I am going to start to call you Mr NG. This commodity is seriously bullish imho. You also nail the turns well

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,027
  • Apr 24, 2014 5:10pm Apr 24, 2014 5:10pm
Quoting srt
Gold: I'm thinking a run back to 1315-1320 area. {image}
That last engulfing candle right at that area miight be pointing to price moving up. I was expecting more downside to maybe 1260 . In a way an upmove from here stills fulfills the scenario but its not ideal. We'll see how this develops

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,028
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:46pm Apr 24, 2014 6:46pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi AG Thanks for your post . I have cut your image and added a possible WW scenario to it. This is looking good and might qualify for a live trade if price behaves itself. As you know I think gold on the weekly chart is tracing a triangle structure and I am expecting some more downside and a move to the 1350 area. Your chart might be saying the same thing. {image}
Thanks Olu,

I like your proposed structure. Let's see how it goes. The current XAU example does have a certain symmetry which I find attractive.

I know nothing, as in Zero, about WWs, but I am attracted to the notion of laying out a theme well in advance of a power move. However, reading between the lines of Bill Wolfe's site and other sites on the web, it is clear that not all WWs will work out.

I look forward to other examples as you come across them.

Best, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #4,029
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:46pm Apr 24, 2014 6:46pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
RUT: 2 consecutive closes back below the 20dma. Bulls need to pull something out of the bag here. Whether they will or not? I don't know (of course) but I don't think they will; maybe 55/45 says they won't. I'm not into coin-flips so for now I'm out of ES longs which have been good to me lately. {image}
Agree BW, I think time for a move lower.
  • #4,030
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:50pm Apr 24, 2014 6:50pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I think I am going to start to call you Mr NG. This commodity is seriously bullish imho. You also nail the turns well Olu
Just hard to even get pos. # 2 in anymore. Last week bought Tuesday & hit 4% target Thursday. I might get more aggressive about my adds. I think we're heading back to 5-6 again.
  • #4,031
  • Apr 24, 2014 6:56pm Apr 24, 2014 6:56pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} That last engulfing candle right at that area miight be pointing to price moving up. I was expecting more downside to maybe 1260 . In a way an upmove from here stills fulfills the scenario but its not ideal. We'll see how this develops Olu
Yes Olu, the move today doesn't change the longer-term trend. I just think the engulfing today on heavy volume was enough for short-covering & some bottom pickers especially since we broke below the previous swing low & rather than sellers piling on the short side the market reverses up strong. Big-time "fake-out, break-out".
  • #4,032
  • Apr 24, 2014 7:58pm Apr 24, 2014 7:58pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I think I am going to start to call you Mr NG. This commodity is seriously bullish imho. You also nail the turns well Olu
Don't talk to me about NG. I was long. Sold for a nice profit a couple of weeks ago. Was umming and aahing about getting back in, had a buy order at about 4.52 or something, moved it a bit lower, missed the initial spike down a few hours later after the inventory stats were released. Market dipped briefly I think, missed my order by maybe 2 or 3 cents, I missed out on at least $2k instant profit.
Fuck fuck fuck. I had just been so scared that it looked like too easy a long so I had moved my limit order down. Just that bit too much.
Sorry for my language. Those kinds of things hurt. Now like srt I am wanting to get back in but I've taken the chart off my watchlist as I can't stand the pain of looking at it lol.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,033
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:04pm Apr 24, 2014 8:04pm
Cable is interesting. Looks like they MIGHT be setting up a bullish failure of a bearish engulfing. Bar stewards!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,034
  • Edited 12:34am Apr 25, 2014 12:19am | Edited 12:34am
Quoting srt
Gold: I'm thinking a run back to 1315-1320 area. {image}
SRT: These are my thoughts: I think the downmove is not yet over because the pinbar, although it is a good looking one on a previous firm support zone, has rejected the 1300 on intraday base. I donīt know how significant is this rejection, but it makes me suspecious. On the other hand it looks like the prices are forming 123 bottom. I decided to wait till the break of the nose. Good luck if you went long.
  • #4,035
  • Apr 25, 2014 2:21am Apr 25, 2014 2:21am
Quoting Boy Wonder
Cable is interesting. Looks like they MIGHT be setting up a bullish failure of a bearish engulfing. Bar stewards! {image}
I am still holding on my short GJ. I think both $ and J will go up. that is also adding to my suspecious about going long gold just now.
  • #4,036
  • Apr 25, 2014 2:24am Apr 25, 2014 2:24am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Don't talk to me about NG. I was long. Sold for a nice profit a couple of weeks ago. Was umming and aahing about getting back in, had a buy order at about 4.52 or something, moved it a bit lower, missed the initial spike down a few hours later after the inventory stats were released. Market dipped briefly I think, missed my order by maybe 2 or 3 cents, I missed out on at least $2k instant profit. Fuck fuck fuck. I had just been so scared that it looked like too easy a long so I had moved my limit order down. Just that bit too much. Sorry...
BW: I burned my account a lot from regret. Be careful friend with such a feeling! It is very good that you took off the chart till you recover.
  • #4,037
  • Apr 25, 2014 4:52am Apr 25, 2014 4:52am
Quoting rehab
{quote} I am still holding on my short GJ. I think both $ and J will go up. that is also adding to my suspecious about going long gold just now.
Hi rehab
I think short G/J is a good trade: a bearish engulfing a couple of days ago confirmed by a lower low yesterday. I am synthetically with you because I am short G/U and short U/J.

My view is GBP is it's trading in thin air up here, and I have a feeling that very patient long-term mean-reversion sellers are probably circling hereabouts
The short yen trade I think is last year's trade. But it's kinda complicated, BoJ want to do more, will they, when will they, etc. etc. So probably a range trading year.
Also I expect that at some point they're gonna start selling GBP cos of the upcoming referendum in September. No way of telling when they will start selling but I think they have probably started. I think they will sell GBP at least down to the 200dma on G/U.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,038
  • Apr 25, 2014 4:53am Apr 25, 2014 4:53am
Quoting rehab
{quote} BW: I burned my account a lot from regret. Be careful friend with such a feeling! It is very good that you took off the chart till you recover.
Yeah had plenty of those in my earlier formative trading years
Just not looking at it now, might check it once a week, maybe sell an OTM put.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,039
  • Apr 25, 2014 6:09am Apr 25, 2014 6:09am
Quoting rehab
{quote} SRT: These are my thoughts: I think the downmove is not yet over because the pinbar, although it is a good looking one on a previous firm support zone, has rejected the 1300 on intraday base. I donīt know how significant is this rejection, but it makes me suspecious. On the other hand it looks like the prices are forming 123 bottom. I decided to wait till the break of the nose. Good luck if you went long.
gold just broke the neck of the pinbar. SRT: good call.
  • #4,040
  • Apr 25, 2014 7:14am Apr 25, 2014 7:14am
GBP news:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/property-va...ghtens-1446056
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/mortgage-le...-rules-1445960

I reckon there is a reasonable chance that we are scraping the top here, and news like this is supportive but for every bear news article there will be a bull one.
That said, my read of the technicals supports a weakening bull trend so I'm cautiously short.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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