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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #130,661
  • Apr 23, 2014 4:25pm Apr 23, 2014 4:25pm
Dear friends,

thank you so much for this Thread. Special thanks to james 16 himself, - PA is really amazing... espesially on D1 chart.
What do you think about this pin-bar on CHF JPY? 5 days tried to Sell + "bad pin-bar".
What about SS order at 115.70, TP #1 - 114.95, TP #2 - 114.15, SL - 116.35.

Thanks mates!
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  • #130,662
  • Apr 23, 2014 5:21pm Apr 23, 2014 5:21pm
Quoting Berserker
Thoughts on AUDJPY? Big BEOB of a weekly S/R that's been rejected many times in the past three weeks, and there seems to be a lot of space to the left. Do I also see negative divergence? Thinking of going short if this BEOB holds until close ( in about 2 hours time with my broker ), with a long term target of 92.84, FTA around 94.50, where I would move to BE. {image} Cheers!
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  • #130,663
  • Apr 23, 2014 9:14pm Apr 23, 2014 9:14pm
hello. how about this pair, price rebounded strong support and should comensar up
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  • #130,664
  • Apr 23, 2014 9:28pm Apr 23, 2014 9:28pm
gold not far behind to put it in focus.
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  • #130,665
  • Apr 23, 2014 10:36pm Apr 23, 2014 10:36pm
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  • #130,666
  • Apr 24, 2014 3:33am Apr 24, 2014 3:33am
@Long2339, cheers for your thoughts. I put in an sell stop at the bottom of the BEOB last night on AUDJPY. Will look to minimize risk quickly if price pops today.

Skipped EURCHF - too much going on there, very tight spot.

By the way, what does PBT and CB mean on your chart? Never seen those acronyms before!
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,667
  • Edited 3:39am Apr 24, 2014 3:38am | Edited 3:39am
Quoting cesar8
hello. how about this pair, price rebounded strong support and should comensar up {image}
Been watching this pair myself since it broke 1.48, waiting for some price action off this level to give me an entry
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,668
  • Apr 24, 2014 3:49am Apr 24, 2014 3:49am
Quoting Berserker
By the way, what does PBT and CB mean on your chart? Never seen those acronyms before!
PBT CA/CB: price break through and close above/below.

Check Jarroo's posts and charts, very elegant method
Slow & steady
  • #130,669
  • Apr 24, 2014 4:24am Apr 24, 2014 4:24am
Quoting patapouer
{quote} PBT CA/CB: price break through and close above/below. Check Jarroo's posts and charts, very elegant method
Thanks, will have a search for that.
We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,670
  • Apr 24, 2014 5:02am Apr 24, 2014 5:02am
My first bar fill-up trade.
stops is below the false pin bar and TP is at bar high.
entry was not optimized because this pair has some substantial spread.

comments are expected and welcomed.
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  • #130,671
  • Apr 24, 2014 5:09am Apr 24, 2014 5:09am
can anyone comment on this pair I am watching.

  1. Nice bearish signature with Fibs confluence.
  2. 3-ple Rejection from the 1.18 area.


i set a sell stop at the break of the weekly pin, its not activated yet.
target is the 1.14 area.

my main concerns are:

  1. from my point, most AUD pairs show bullish tendency in the mid - long term.
  2. its a small pin


thanks
Dinta.

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  • #130,672
  • Edited 5:40am Apr 24, 2014 5:39am | Edited 5:40am
Reading back through the archives, I found this great post by Ghous that discusses divergence:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post2156588


I haven't used divergence much in my trades, but Ghous's post got me thinking on GBPUSD. It looks like the bears could be moving in? This looks like strong negative divergence to me...

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We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit
  • #130,673
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:34am Apr 24, 2014 8:34am
EL gold is giving guidelines innings this signal seems wick FTP
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  • #130,674
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:40am Apr 24, 2014 8:40am
Quoting Czedoom
Dear friends, thank you so much for this Thread. Special thanks to james 16 himself, - PA is really amazing... espesially on D1 chart. What do you think about this pin-bar on CHF JPY? 5 days tried to Sell + "bad pin-bar". What about SS order at 115.70, TP #1 - 114.95, TP #2 - 114.15, SL - 116.35. Thanks mates! {image}
Hey Czedoom

Welcome to the thread glad it's been helpful so far

Be careful with two things here. The size of the bar is super super tiny. This pair has literally flat-lined. So we have a very very tiny bar in a very very sideways market. Start out by searching for pinbars at nice swing high points. THese very sideways area are not ideal for PA especially when starting out as price will chop you out

Again welcome to the thread hope this helps
Mike
  • #130,675
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:46am Apr 24, 2014 8:46am
Quoting Dinta
My first bar fill-up trade. stops is below the false pin bar and TP is at bar high. entry was not optimized because this pair has some substantial spread. comments are expected and welcomed. {image}
Hey D

THe tricky part of trying to do a wick play here is that price is so sideways. You really want those wicks to also be in space, or trading away from s/r. Notice the tight box we are in. Makes them much harder to play

Say that bar closed ABOVE that area then you could fill the wick

Best
Mike
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  • #130,676
  • Apr 24, 2014 9:38am Apr 24, 2014 9:38am
This is one of the biggest thread here so maybe I can find the answer I'm looking for...
I'm looking for the reasons why a trade is a good one...

So let's take a look of the classic pin bar, ok I know about it's setup, that good... but I'd like to know a few things:

1. Why a pin bar is profitable? What's the reason behind it? What's the market is telling to us basically?
2. FX is a zero sum game, so why trader can't trade only pin bars for their entire life?
3. If trading pin bars is so profitable and easy, why a EA can't easily be set up to crush the market?

ty in advance
  • #130,677
  • Apr 24, 2014 10:02am Apr 24, 2014 10:02am
Quoting 4StarGen
This is one of the biggest thread here so maybe I can find the answer I'm looking for... I'm looking for the reasons why a trade is a good one... So let's take a look of the classic pin bar, ok I know about it's setup, that good... but I'd like to know a few things: 1. Why a pin bar is profitable? What's the reason behind it? What's the market is telling to us basically? 2. FX is a zero sum game, so why trader can't trade only pin bars for their entire life? 3. If trading pin bars is so profitable and easy, why a EA can't easily be set up to crush...
I'm not sure I can answer, but I'll take a stab at it.

1. Pinbar's show exhaustion of the move preceding it. So when a PB shows up without a move before it, it's in traffic. Like this there are numerous other factors at play when picking a PB trade. But the core of all of them is this: To add a sense of Probability to the scenario, in which you place a trade, or will pass on a trade because of the lack of Probability-factors we call confluence here.

2. FX is not necessarily zero-sum, as there are a large number of 'non-economic buyers'. But still, there are a lot of pitfalls that can make the difference between failing/succeeding. Treat this like a business is the main thought behind this tread and comes back in all of it's componens.
A trader can definitely take PB's only; this could actually be very profitable. But there are setups beyond the classic pinbar, that have as good a chance of succeeding.

3. EA's do a good job at calculation, but add even only 1 factor that is determined discretionary and it will fail.
When trying to be very picky about your PB-entries, you are actually weighing a multitude of factors in a discretionary way, that are not easily quantifiable so that an EA can trade it.
There are however indicators/EA's that give a signal when the form of a PB comes up, but it's never to be used as a trading robot.

Hope this all makes sense .

W
It's a sport, an artform and a science.
  • #130,678
  • Apr 24, 2014 10:27am Apr 24, 2014 10:27am
Quoting 4StarGen
This is one of the biggest thread here so maybe I can find the answer I'm looking for... I'm looking for the reasons why a trade is a good one... So let's take a look of the classic pin bar, ok I know about it's setup, that good... but I'd like to know a few things: 1. Why a pin bar is profitable? What's the reason behind it? What's the market is telling to us basically? 2. FX is a zero sum game, so why trader can't trade only pin bars for their entire life? 3. If trading pin bars is so profitable and easy, why a EA can't easily be set up to crush...
Hey 4Star

I actually talked about this in my webinar this week so its fresh on my mind on how I want to answer this

I hear it all the time. Either people think TA(technical analysis) like pinbars is voodoo. Or they put TOO much faith without fully understanding what we are trying to do.

Here are the two most common view points that are WRONG.

1. Pinbars give an edge
2. Pinbars can not give an edge

Both of these statements are FALSE(and/or lacking information)

Lets now replace pinbars with price action. What makes me a profitable trader with an edge is not my ability to spot a pinbar. THey are all over the place. A pinbar is just historical price represented in a bar format. What makes me a profitable trader is my ability to decipher a situation or story. That is to bring together multiple forms of analysis and tools to make a logical and educated decision on why price should or shouldn't continue to move a certain way. Spotting a pinbar itself is a very small part of that. We must know why it is a good vs a bad pinbar. THen we must decipher why it is a good or bad bar in the location its at. Then we must decipher how can we pull those pieces together to construct a logical and sound trade plan. When you bring all these pieces together the ability to create a STORY is my edge. The bars are just a small part of that process.
If you want to learn and get good at price action where you can have an actual edge you must keep this in mind. Creating a trade plan with all the moving pieces and then being CONSISTENT with these tools moving forward is the only way you will be profitable. Otherwise trading any old pinbar via some EA is no different then throwing darts.

Hopefully that helps and best of luck
Mike
  • #130,679
  • Apr 24, 2014 10:48am Apr 24, 2014 10:48am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey D THe tricky part of trying to do a wick play....
I see now Mike, thanks.
things get a lil' but clearer in your charts.

it's really a risky play, so i have exited at the top of that wedge.
thankfully in the green.

regards,
Dinta
  • #130,680
  • Apr 24, 2014 10:50am Apr 24, 2014 10:50am
Quoting Donaciello
3. EA's do a good job at calculation, but add even only 1 factor that is determined discretionary and it will fail. When trying to be very picky about your PB-entries, you are actually weighing a multitude of factors in a discretionary way, that are not easily quantifiable so that an EA can trade it. There are however indicators/EA's that give a signal when the form of a PB comes up, but it's never to be used as a trading robot. Hope this all makes sense . W
Ty for your kind reply, all what you have said does make sense...
Regarding the quoted point, don't you think you can build a pretty accurate model of what you are looking for after the formation of the pin bar? So if the conditions x, y and x are met, enter the trade?
Don't you think that it would be so much easy and profitable to trade like this?
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