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AUD/USD

  • #76,761
  • Apr 23, 2014 10:08am Apr 23, 2014 10:08am
Quoting praviiii
This is my 1st post here(forexfactory) i recently learned wave analysis and trying to trade in forex..lets hope for the best.... if my wave analysis correct wave 4 correct 38.2% then go towords abouve 3rd wave... {image} {image}
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #76,762
  • Apr 23, 2014 10:55am Apr 23, 2014 10:55am
thanks hora..whackdiddy..any mistakes in my analysis please let me know..
  • #76,763
  • Apr 23, 2014 12:01pm Apr 23, 2014 12:01pm
Looks like going long here would not be unreasonable..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au-4hr.png Size: 49 KB
  • #76,764
  • Apr 23, 2014 12:10pm Apr 23, 2014 12:10pm
long here at 9284

9245 stop
  • #76,765
  • Apr 23, 2014 1:30pm Apr 23, 2014 1:30pm
Quoting spinozagr
Quiz of the day... If you were a trader (say if ) what would you do according to theory? a) short b) long c) wait, not sure {image}
What theory?
  • #76,766
  • Apr 23, 2014 5:36pm Apr 23, 2014 5:36pm
Sell @ current price 0.9284

stop loss 0.9293
Gmail: 4xmiracle
  • #76,767
  • Apr 23, 2014 7:53pm Apr 23, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting Ssm
{quote} OMG, what happened? Are you long or short. You should be happy if you are short. The bearish movement earlier on doesn't goes well with the bulls.
Hey Ssm,

I made the number one Rookie mistake of "Guessing" which direction the market was going to move before the announcement, getting it wrong, then opening positions to cover my losses, of which made it worse, because I was opening positions WAY tooooo early.

So I went long, got it wrong, then started opening long positions too early.

Anyway, the market did turn in my favour and I walked away without a loss...

Never, Never, Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never, Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never trade Forex at work on the mobile.
Follow me at andrewfx2020 (dot) com
  • #76,768
  • Apr 23, 2014 8:30pm Apr 23, 2014 8:30pm
Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} Hey Ssm, I made the number one Rookie mistake of "Guessing" which direction the market was going to move before the announcement, getting it wrong, then opening positions to cover my losses, of which made it worse, because I was opening positions WAY tooooo early. So I went long, got it wrong, then started opening long positions too early. Anyway, the market did turn in my favour and I walked away without a loss... Never, Never, Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never,...

The feeling that "I must act now or I will miss the big score is quite natural but of course very dangerous".

There is ALWAYS a better opportunity but we may miss it if we aren't patient. Be diligent and write down your reasons for initiating a trade beforehand. It will help you make higher probability trades and will also help in analyzing failing trades afterwards.

Good luck to you, one green pip at a time
Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #76,769
  • Edited 9:13pm Apr 23, 2014 8:53pm | Edited 9:13pm
Looking back I cannot recall precisely what caused my view of 9370 to be a good short area for the AUD but when I saw the bar with the arrow on the attached chart, I felt confident about holding a short into the announcement.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 04232153FF.jpg Size: 33 KB


It was also through the day Tuesday (early morning for the US East coast) that the 9310 area started to develop as a short target area. So, between the 9370 target area and the 9310 area developing also blended with the announcement, well, I felt the risk was worth the reward.


..apologies for what seems like a unstudied view. This is my third day back in after about a 6 year "live break". It's been a period of looking at my own system more carefully and understanding the market better than I did before. Truth is in the numbers. The numbers do predict and give solid information on over value and under value levels.

I'll keep looking for the trigger and update.....
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #76,770
  • Apr 23, 2014 9:12pm Apr 23, 2014 9:12pm
Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} Hey Ssm, I made the number one Rookie mistake of "Guessing" which direction the market was going to move before the announcement, getting it wrong, then opening positions to cover my losses, of which made it worse, because I was opening positions WAY tooooo early. So I went long, got it wrong, then started opening long positions too early. Anyway, the market did turn in my favour and I walked away without a loss... Never, Never, Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never, Never,Never,...
Depends on timeframe.

Trading forex on the mobile is useful. Homework needs to be done on Desktop Trading platform before going out.
  • #76,771
  • Apr 23, 2014 10:07pm Apr 23, 2014 10:07pm
Quoting AussieForexM
{quote} Hey Ssm, I made the number one Rookie mistake of "Guessing" which direction the market was going to move before the announcement, getting it wrong, then opening positions to cover my losses, of which made it worse, because I was opening positions WAY tooooo early.

Glad that things work out for you and you are able to escape unhurt. Your returns are pretty impressive for a newbie.

IMO, due to the huge bearish movement yesterday, any longs (not scalping) below 93 is dangerous. Below 93, we are still in bears territory. Only we have a candle close (at least H4) above .9315, then we might be bullish.

I only uses MT4 mobile apps to monitor my trades on the move.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #76,772
  • Apr 23, 2014 10:17pm Apr 23, 2014 10:17pm
Price was flat on low volume. Yesterday's loss in value had little retrace. To me this indicates a lack of buyers. I am expecting .9250 to be tested soon.
  • #76,773
  • Apr 23, 2014 11:11pm Apr 23, 2014 11:11pm
Au/Us on downtrend, retrace at .9310/15. Sell with TP1 0.9225/30, TP2 0.9200/05, TP3 0.9130/35. Buy if breakout retrace with TP1 0.9375/80, TP2 0.415/20, TP3 0.9460/65.
Good Luck
  • #76,774
  • Apr 23, 2014 11:24pm Apr 23, 2014 11:24pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Price was flat on low volume. Yesterday's loss in value had little retrace. To me this indicates a lack of buyers. I am expecting .9250 to be tested soon.
I don't disagree with the sentiment, I do believe a move to the 9320 area would sure solidify it...
"Holy Grail" exists - accepting where is the first step.
  • #76,775
  • Apr 23, 2014 11:49pm Apr 23, 2014 11:49pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Price was flat on low volume. Yesterday's loss in value had little retrace. To me this indicates a lack of buyers. I am expecting .9250 to be tested soon.
Personally I am still waiting for the AUD to drop like a stone or a meteor back down to the 0.89 level but every time we get bad data the AUD is supported / bought by UK and US investors.

On another forum, an ex investment banker had a great tip.. Don't short currencies that have good interest rates.. I am starting to think along these lines for the AUD, been burn't badly shorting the AUD.

Currently holding the following trades.
Short AUDUSD @ 0.92712
Short Silver
2 x Long Gold
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #76,776
  • Apr 23, 2014 11:51pm Apr 23, 2014 11:51pm
Quoting zew
{quote} Depends on timeframe. Trading forex on the mobile is useful. Homework needs to be done on Desktop Trading platform before going out.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #76,777
  • Apr 24, 2014 2:31am Apr 24, 2014 2:31am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdmicroh4fjh.png Size: 41 KB
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #76,778
  • Apr 24, 2014 2:33am Apr 24, 2014 2:33am
Quoting PIPot
{image}
.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vvc.jpg Size: 44 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #76,779
  • Apr 24, 2014 2:33am Apr 24, 2014 2:33am
Australian completed yesterday's review, after standing in the range 0.9270-9310. I see update yesterday's low and price's return in the current zone and then increase above.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/deas8...384736_900.png
  • #76,780
  • Apr 24, 2014 2:44am Apr 24, 2014 2:44am
She is moving some...
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