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  • #4,001
  • Apr 23, 2014 2:30pm Apr 23, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting rehab
{quote} The difference between them is confusing to me. I stick to wedges and let the price action (candle pattern), terndline and support and resistance tell about the target profit.

It was confusing for me too. Sticking to wedges and PA is my traditional way too. However it appears that WW gives earlier entries and a clear target. Still checking it out and if I get a good example (in hindsight) I will post it. When I get used to it and find it ok I might post trades based on it as I take the trade

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,002
  • Apr 23, 2014 2:39pm Apr 23, 2014 2:39pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
DAX: Potential inverse head and shoulders here. Worth keeping an eye on to see if it can crack resistance and make a higher high. {image}

BW

Shouldnt an inverse H&S be at the bottom of price action?

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,003
  • Apr 23, 2014 2:50pm Apr 23, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting Olu
GbpNzd There are questions, purely logical that can be asked like why not eurnzd or euraud e.t.c as it appears the gbp is very strong at the moment. The answer is those might be good trades too but I couldnt get the wave pattern right on those charts. So we'll see how this one plays out. The trade is wrong if 9631 is taken out. This is about 100 pips from here and is huge so we might see whether there can be a retracement so that risk is reduced. But this is at the risk of losing the trade altogether

Olu {image}
UPDATE: Price rallied hard and then fell hard as well. It is now spotting an H&S pattern. If the shown neckline is broken it could lead to a more substantial fall

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,004
  • Apr 23, 2014 3:05pm Apr 23, 2014 3:05pm
audnzd - rolling over?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,005
  • Apr 23, 2014 3:52pm Apr 23, 2014 3:52pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} BW Shouldnt an inverse H&S be at the bottom of price action? Olu
Hi mate
No, not at all. In my view it doesn't matter where it is and it doesn't matter whether it prints on a 5 min chart or a monthly chart. I don't see any reason why that neckline couldn't break, which is not to say that I expect or don't expect that it will.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,006
  • Apr 23, 2014 3:52pm Apr 23, 2014 3:52pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} UPDATE: Price rallied hard and then fell hard as well. It is now spotting an H&S pattern. If the shown neckline is broken it could lead to a more substantial fall Olu {image}
Rate decision in 8 minutes.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #4,007
  • Apr 23, 2014 4:05pm Apr 23, 2014 4:05pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Rate decision in 8 minutes.

Price has fallen. But I could'nt trade it as spread has gone to 35 on my terminal!!!

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,008
  • Apr 23, 2014 4:14pm Apr 23, 2014 4:14pm
GbpNzd 4h

Gap down on the news. But gap appears to be closing right....
I think that when all is said and done, whether gap closes or not, Nzd is on the up. So if we pair this strong against the much weaker ones we could have a good move on out hands.

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,009
  • Apr 23, 2014 4:25pm Apr 23, 2014 4:25pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi mate No, not at all. In my view it doesn't matter where it is and it doesn't matter whether it prints on a 5 min chart or a monthly chart. I don't see any reason why that neckline couldn't break, which is not to say that I expect or don't expect that it will.

BW

if what you said is correct then this is valid and if it breaks there is at least 200 pips in it. (Nzdcad daily) . I am long

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,010
  • Apr 23, 2014 6:03pm Apr 23, 2014 6:03pm
Sugar
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,011
  • Apr 24, 2014 12:35am Apr 24, 2014 12:35am
Quoting Olu
{quote} It was confusing for me too. Sticking to wedges and PA is my traditional way too. However it appears that WW gives earlier entries and a clear target. Still checking it out and if I get a good example (in hindsight) I will post it. When I get used to it and find it ok I might post trades based on it as I take the trade Olu
ya, that would be intersting and helpful, please do so. What is confusing to me specifically is to judge the symetry in time. cheers!
  • #4,012
  • Apr 24, 2014 2:27am Apr 24, 2014 2:27am
AUDCHF
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,013
  • Apr 24, 2014 3:31am Apr 24, 2014 3:31am
Quoting Olu
AUDCHF {image}
Olu, I always wanted to ask you: do you enter after breakout, or breakout-pullback, or do you enter early anticipating the breakout? I try to learn to anticipate the breakout and enter early-usually- but not usually it works
  • #4,014
  • Apr 24, 2014 3:39am Apr 24, 2014 3:39am
Quoting Olu
{quote} It was confusing for me too. Sticking to wedges and PA is my traditional way too. However it appears that WW gives earlier entries and a clear target. Still checking it out and if I get a good example (in hindsight) I will post it. When I get used to it and find it ok I might post trades based on it as I take the trade Olu
Look at this wedge. Ok, may be it doesn really make it to a WW: Problem is not symetry in time (As far as I understand symetry), but if you fit the peaks of the waves then you get the target hit. What do you think of it? donīt feel shy to tell me that I had a lot of imagination when I draw it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,015
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:21am Apr 24, 2014 8:21am
Quoting rehab
{quote} Look at this wedge. Ok, may be it doesn really make it to a WW: Problem is not symetry in time (As far as I understand symetry), but if you fit the peaks of the waves then you get the target hit. What do you think of it? donīt feel shy to tell me that I had a lot of imagination when I draw it {image}

Hi Rehab

This doesn't fit the WW pattern. With this one I would have gone with the usual wedge pattern and manage any breakout using just price action. Whether I would have held on till that high target I wouldn't know (ok probably not)

You do not have a clear 1-4 target line as well. This is a good wedge example though amd I would have drawn a top line from the 1350 peak and the bottom line from the 1250 bottom

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,016
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:28am Apr 24, 2014 8:28am
Quoting rehab
{quote} Olu, I always wanted to ask you: do you enter after breakout, or breakout-pullback, or do you enter early anticipating the breakout? I try to learn to anticipate the breakout and enter early-usually- but not usually it works

it is best to wait for the breakout or breakdown. I have jumped in many a time before this confirmation and just as many times the trade blew up in my face.

In fact my mentor will only trade a retest and continuation of the breakout zone. You will lose trades that do not retest but it is better statistically especially in these days where false breakouts abound

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,017
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:36am Apr 24, 2014 8:36am
thanks for sharing you thoughts Olu!
  • #4,018
  • Apr 24, 2014 8:44am Apr 24, 2014 8:44am
Quoting rehab
{quote} Olu, I always wanted to ask you: do you enter after breakout, or breakout-pullback, or do you enter early anticipating the breakout? I try to learn to anticipate the breakout and enter early-usually- but not usually it works
An example of not waiting for confirmation. Overnight nzd increased rates and were hawkish. Naturally you would think it was going to the moon especially when price was behaving accordingly. But perhaps all that was priced in already

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #4,019
  • Apr 24, 2014 9:16am Apr 24, 2014 9:16am
Quoting Olu
{quote} An example of not waiting for confirmation. Overnight nzd increased rates and were hawkish. Naturally you would think it was going to the moon especially when price was behaving accordingly. But perhaps all that was priced in already Olu {image}
that is a difficult example for me. In such I wouldnīt have entered in neither direction. At least I would had tried first to get confirmation from something else, like stochastic...?
  • #4,020
  • Apr 24, 2014 11:36am Apr 24, 2014 11:36am
Hi Olu,

What do you think about these wedges for Wolfe Waves? As I understand it, we need to identify Point 2 as the "anchor" point, and it needs to be a very clear swing point. The other points then are built off Point 2.

The completed wedge in Black gave Entry possibilities even tho Point 5 was Squishy.

The current wedge in Blue, if true, is searching for Point 5 now. Point 1 was a pure guess based on congested Fractals and a possible slope to Point 3. Points 2 and 3 are more reasonable guesses with Weekly Fractals in place. In time Point 4 may also flash a Weekly Fractal.

Best, AG

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Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
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