Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#76,721
Apr 22, 2014 8:52pm Apr 22, 2014 8:52pm

wind.rpha
Joined Mar 2014 | Status: Trader | 413 Posts

when will finish this mess?

#76,722
Apr 22, 2014 8:54pm Apr 22, 2014 8:54pm

Pip Anon
Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trading defies logic | 4,643 Posts

Quoting Citiboy

Disliked

medium term i want to be a seller on china related currencies... Clock Ticks on China Sentiment- http://trendersgame.com/2014/04/22/c...ina-sentiment/

Ignored

Only a matter of time before the economy falls into shambles - at least the market's perception. Analysts for sometime have though GDP has trending around 6.5 percent and not in the sevens. I think the default issue will be an issue, too. China may be able to control the systematic effects, but it wrecks confidence.

I noticed the currencies in question were broadly grouped as the risk on class. Are you looking at those specifically or just directly tired to Chinese performance?

When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir

#76,723
Apr 22, 2014 8:59pm Apr 22, 2014 8:59pm

Citiboy
Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts

Quoting Pip Anon

Disliked

{quote} Only a matter of time before the economy falls into shambles - at least the market's perception. Analysts for sometime have though GDP has trending around 6.5 percent and not in the sevens. I think the default issue will be an issue, too. China may be able to control the systematic effects, but it wrecks confidence. I noticed the currencies in question were broadly grouped as the risk on class. Are you looking at those specifically or just directly tired to Chinese performance?

Ignored

I guess you could say all the currencies mentioned happen to be the "risk on" currencies at the moment. They are also all related to China. I think this dynamic is occuring at the moment because most tail risk is seen to be associated with China. So when risk is "on" people buy these currencies. But that may not necessarily mean the SPX is rallying.

I think the stereotypical insanely correlated risk on/risk off seen in 2011 has been dead for a while,

edit: MXN and CAD seem way less correlated to AUD than they used to be. North America is seen as "far away" from China risks in a sense?

Twitter: @TrendersGame

#76,724
Apr 22, 2014 9:04pm Apr 22, 2014 9:04pm

Pipocrates
| Membership Revoked | Joined May 2012 | 240 Posts

9250 will be the end of this retracement, if that breaks 9050

#76,725
Apr 22, 2014 9:05pm Apr 22, 2014 9:05pm

spinozagr
Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Poor Man | 1,085 Posts

Quote

Disliked

The perfect setup for shorting... Resistance @MA300 and strong daily volatility breakthrough looking back to MA200 which happen to be the fibo 61,8 (,91550)

the road to south:
First mid-target ,927
finally target ,915

Stay tuned...

The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...

#76,726
Apr 22, 2014 9:12pm Apr 22, 2014 9:12pm

Pip Anon
Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trading defies logic | 4,643 Posts

Quoting Citiboy

Disliked

{quote} I guess you could say all the currencies mentioned happen to be the "risk on" currencies at the moment. They are also all related to China. I think this dynamic is occuring at the moment because most tail risk is seen to be associated with China. So when risk is "on" people buy these currencies. But that may not necessarily mean the SPX is rallying. I think the stereotypical insanely correlated risk on/risk off seen in 2011 has been dead for a while, edit: MXN and CAD seem way less correlated to AUD than they used to be. North America is...

Ignored

Well, I only use the risk on cliche because it's a general psychological phenomenon IMO. Currencies are more based on central bank policy then fundamentals of individual countries, so they tend to move in the same direction.

Although, I think CAD and MXN would be a good short just on US central bank divergence (verbally) from the others.

If China goes down, I'd like to see opportunities in the HKD, WON and maybe the THB too

When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir

#76,727
Apr 22, 2014 9:17pm Apr 22, 2014 9:17pm

eliteincome
| Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,640 Posts

Gidday Traders

AUD/NZ Good Battle going on 1.08

#76,728
Apr 22, 2014 9:20pm Apr 22, 2014 9:20pm

Matts Micro
Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 4,956 Posts

Quoting Pipocrates

Disliked

9250 will be the end of this retracement, if that breaks 9050

Ignored

Yeps, it seems to be the correction of the daily channel that I mentioned last week. If BO from channel then my target will be the .9080 zone (daily fib 38.2 from 23.10.13).

As the lights go by so too do the shadows move

#76,729
Apr 22, 2014 9:21pm Apr 22, 2014 9:21pm

julia2011
| Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 486 Posts

Quoting julia2011

Disliked

{quote} we gonna meet at least at 9250 no need to jump on train

Ignored

still waiting my target

#76,730
Apr 22, 2014 9:56pm Apr 22, 2014 9:56pm

spinozagr
Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Poor Man | 1,085 Posts

Quote

Disliked

The perfect setup for shorting... Resistance @MA300 and strong daily volatility breakthrough looking back to MA200 which happen to be the fibo 61,8 (,91550)
the road to south:
First mid-target ,927
finally target ,915

Somewhere here 92,7xx it mets the 74,6 fibo on the daily basis... Let's see if it holds...

The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...

#76,731
Apr 22, 2014 10:03pm Apr 22, 2014 10:03pm

irongoose
| Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,210 Posts

Quoting julia2011

Disliked

{quote} still waiting my target

Ignored

I have a support level marked at .9246 and the 200 DMA on the 4 hour chart sits just below that at .9239, this is where I'll be watching for a long entry.

Whether or not price gets there or not is a different story.

#76,732
Apr 22, 2014 10:39pm Apr 22, 2014 10:39pm