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  • #3,961
  • Apr 20, 2014 6:02pm Apr 20, 2014 6:02pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Sorry to dissapoint you BW there was supposed to be a 'not' between the 'but on'. I cant do it my work needs my full concentration and cant screen swap to watch the markets. I am looking at the idea of option credit spread though. This can even bring in some income when I am sitting on my hands waiting for a trend Olu
That's probably for the best. I used to do both and that was pretty stressful.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,962
  • Apr 20, 2014 6:04pm Apr 20, 2014 6:04pm
E/A. I have a small short on and it's underwater but that's not a concern. A pretty clear HnS has cracked to the downside and price is hovering below the 200dma but the bulls have broken a bear trendline.
I am looking for a rally to the neckline area as an opportunity to sell a bit more.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,963
  • Apr 20, 2014 6:07pm Apr 20, 2014 6:07pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} That's probably for the best. I used to do both and that was pretty stressful.
Secondly I need to think through my trades so I cant trade the 5min chart like others can. After the fact I can point to the excellent sell areas etc. So its no less that 4h for me. udos to all those who are 'quick on the click'

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,964
  • Apr 20, 2014 6:37pm Apr 20, 2014 6:37pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
E/A. I have a small short on and it's underwater but that's not a concern. A pretty clear HnS has cracked to the downside and price is hovering below the 200dma but the bulls have broken a bear trendline. I am looking for a rally to the neckline area as an opportunity to sell a bit more. {image}

I agree with you that 1.5000 will be a good selling point BW but can it get there?

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,965
  • Apr 20, 2014 6:58pm Apr 20, 2014 6:58pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi mate Yes, trading ES is tough, and not for the faint of heart! Your idea if using an ETF is a good one - it's a kind of index, after all, and much of a stock's movement is correlated with the movement of a) its sector and b) the wider indexes. Yes there is danger in gaps in stocks - that's why I went to ES in the first place - but like you say that can be ameliorated somewhat by using long options. I tend to prefer to sell options, but my timing is getting a little better so I might start looking at long options trades instead....
Selling is my favorite method of using options. I won't do it on individual stocks though because of the risk(long or short) associated with individual companies so only buy vertical call spreads in companies I like. I like to sell naked puts on commodities quite a bit but better know the risk or use put spreads.
  • #3,966
  • Apr 20, 2014 7:14pm Apr 20, 2014 7:14pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Srt It is not a ramble imho. I like the idea of the mid range stocks rather than stock which the most resourced traders are trading although these same stocks tend to be the most liquid with the tightest spreads Olu
Agree about the spread. If I thought I was going to need to get out quickly I'd stick with the most liquid but I think if you have a plan from the beginning that you're going to hold the position for weeks or months then I'm less concerned about the spread as long as it's not really wide. That's even more important when using options in these stocks as the option spreads are even wider. That's the reason I'm usually committed to hold for a longer period of time and holding a call spread has so much less $$ at risk so it's easier to hold on through some volatility. Holding stock in a company will have delta of 100% but options (call spread) might have a delta of 30% so the chops up & down are muted using options. Easier on the nerves :-)
  • #3,967
  • Apr 20, 2014 8:15pm Apr 20, 2014 8:15pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Srt It is not a ramble imho. I like the idea of the mid range stocks rather than stock which the most resourced traders are trading although these same stocks tend to be the most liquid with the tightest spreads Olu
I usually try to post my most useless opinions on other threads of less quality but I slip some junk in your thread too at times :-)
I'll work on that.
  • #3,968
  • Apr 21, 2014 4:32am Apr 21, 2014 4:32am
Quoting srt
{quote} I usually try to post my most useless opinions on other threads of less quality but I slip some junk in your thread too at times :-) I'll work on that.
It has been some good junk so far

Anyway it is Easter Monday here in the UK and nothing is moving strongly out there. Except Crude oil
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,969
  • Apr 21, 2014 4:39am Apr 21, 2014 4:39am
Olu, any thoughts on gbpusd?
  • #3,970
  • Apr 21, 2014 5:18am Apr 21, 2014 5:18am
Quoting trexy123
Olu, any thoughts on gbpusd?

Trexy123

I am in 2 minds but more bullish about gbpusd right now. UK's fundamentals are red hot right now and the chart is in an uptrend making higher high and higher lows. If there is any currency with the lease fear of falling it is the gbp. gbpusd is trying to breakout to the upside and I think we will get some back and fill action then off she goes. Now I am bearish because the higher highs are getting closer together giving a scenario like it is rolling over

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,971
  • Edited 5:38am Apr 21, 2014 5:23am | Edited 5:38am
Quoting srt
Coffee
Srt I present another idea about coffee. One that you have been right about all along. Man alive this commodity may have given me the KO for the second time. First for taking profits too early and now for not seeing what was happening right under my nose. if price turns around from here and takes out 180 area then the old plan is back in play. But I somehow dont see that happening. Those last 3 green candles mean business

Chart is below:
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,972
  • Apr 21, 2014 6:58am Apr 21, 2014 6:58am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Srt I present another idea about coffee. One that you have been right about all along. Man alive this commodity may have given me the KO for the second time. First for taking profits too early and now for not seeing what was happening right under my nose. if price turns around from here and takes out 180 area then the old plan is back in play. But I somehow dont see that happening. Those last 3 green candles mean business Chart is below: {image}
Just read somewhere last week that Brazil could lose 30% of their coffee crop this year because of the dry weather. I don't think I'd want to be short if that happens. If that were just "talk" I don't think the large rally would be holding up this well.

Monthly chart looks like it could see 225.
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  • #3,973
  • Apr 21, 2014 7:31am Apr 21, 2014 7:31am
Quoting srt
{quote} Just read somewhere last week that Brazil could lose 30% of their coffee crop this year because of the dry weather. I don't think I'd want to be short if that happens. If that were just "talk" I don't think the large rally would be holding up this well. Monthly chart looks like it could see 225. {image}

our thinking is now aligned. At much unearned income cost to me though...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,974
  • Edited 8:25am Apr 21, 2014 7:54am | Edited 8:25am
Quoting Olu
{quote} It has been some good junk so far Anyway it is Easter Monday here in the UK and nothing is moving strongly out there. Except Crude oil {image}
Olu, I think what has happened is that investing.com has rolled over to the next front month and that explains the big red bar on that chart i.e. there is a contango backwardation (duh, I always get them mixed up) spread between May and June.


Compare
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sy...ical&template=
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sy...ical&template=
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,975
  • Apr 21, 2014 7:59am Apr 21, 2014 7:59am
News on Japan's burgeoning trade deficit:
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/japans-trad...x-hike-1445473
The chart: below. Shows how clever this guy Abe is. Not.
There is a sales tax coming in this month I think. If is expected to crimp demand, which would probably reduce imports, and thereby bring the deficit down (but for the wrong reasons perhaps - one would always prefer exports to have increased rather than imports to have decreased).
That U/J is not substantially higher based on the weakening trade balance suggests to me that the risk is to the downside, which confirms (confirmation bias?) my view of the chart. I am biased net short until the 200dma is tested.
Of course there are many other factors, but I'm not going to write a thesis on it - I would still probably be wrong at the end of the day.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,976
  • Apr 21, 2014 8:21am Apr 21, 2014 8:21am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Olu, I think what has happened is that investing.com has rolled over to the next front month and that explains the big red bar on that chart i.e. there is a contango spread between May and June. Compare http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sy...ical&template= http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sy...ical&template=

Thanks BW for the clarification

All the other charts online do not any tanking in prices nor are there any commentaries that Russia has mover out of ukraine etc so I sort of gathered that it was nothing. Thanks for the explanation. However the prescence of that big red candle on the chart can skew indicators - human and calculated cant it? it almost had me! one needs clean cash prices for correct analysis

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,977
  • Apr 21, 2014 8:44pm Apr 21, 2014 8:44pm
E/G is at a key point here; quite remarkable really how it's caught in the intersection of those trend lines. I'd have to favour a downside breakout here but let's see; are the Euro bulls going to step up to the plate? Certainly every time I think E/G is gonna tank, it bounces back like a mofo.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,978
  • Apr 22, 2014 3:57am Apr 22, 2014 3:57am
I am back! it feels so lonely trading alone guys
  • #3,979
  • Apr 22, 2014 7:44am Apr 22, 2014 7:44am
Quoting rehab
I am back! it feels so lonely trading alone guys
You're not wrong there. Welcome back, rehab. Got any nice trade ideas for us?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,980
  • Apr 22, 2014 7:49am Apr 22, 2014 7:49am
Yen news: "The former Japanese Deputy Minister of Finance, Eisuke Sakakibara, known as "Mr. Yen", said that the Yen is more likely to move towards 110 Yen (USDJPY) per Dollar than to 100. "

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/fxbeat/...a-20df6178050b
http://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/for...ew/2014/04/22/

Tried to find the Bloomberg interview but couldn't; it appears to have disappeared.

googling this guy I found a load of similar predictions from years past and my gut feeling is this guy knows what he's talking about.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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