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  • #3,921
  • Edited 4:52pm Apr 15, 2014 4:36pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
E/J: Suggests either eur/usd or usd/jpy (or both) are going to go higher. {image}

Hi again BW

I am bearish the usdjpy till the 104 high is taken out or we see the 97.xx area. I am working by the weekly chart of the usdjpy I put up last weekend and this should be just a retracement which can go no higher than 102.50 area. I am in wait and see mode right now

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,922
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:53am Apr 16, 2014 1:53am
Gold is still tracing out the big triangle which should eventually collapse to new lows (first chart). Found the second image on the net and it made me chuckle about what happened to gold i.e body slammed. So I am re-posting the image here
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Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,923
  • Apr 16, 2014 7:47am Apr 16, 2014 7:47am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi again BW I am bearish the usdjpy till the 104 high is taken out or we see the 97.xx area. I am working by the weekly chart of the usdjpy I put up last weekend and this should be just a retracement which can go no higher than 102.50 area. I am in wait and see mode right now Olu
Hi mate
U/J is a difficult one for me to call. S/t bullish looking for maybe a test of the 100dma, medium term bearish, looking for a test of the 200dma, longer term, I don't have an opinion because for me it depends on too many variables.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,924
  • Apr 16, 2014 7:53am Apr 16, 2014 7:53am
Quoting Olu
Gold is still tracing out the big triangle which should eventually collapse to new lows (first chart). Found the second image on the net and it made me chuckle about what happened to gold i.e body slammed. So I am re-posting the image here {image} {image}
Bearish here also.
Looking at the daily, price has failed at the bear trendline (from below) but is now crucially sitting atop the 200. I would expect some consolidation for a few days, maybe a couple of weeks, and then a resumption of the move down from there. A move back above the trendline and/or the big red candle would strongly suggest something different is going on; perhaps the drop was/is a trap.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,925
  • Apr 16, 2014 8:57am Apr 16, 2014 8:57am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi mate U/J is a difficult one for me to call. S/t bullish looking for maybe a test of the 100dma, medium term bearish, looking for a test of the 200dma, longer term, I don't have an opinion because for me it depends on too many variables.
There's not that many variables. If you can figure out where the US 10y gov't yield is headed you'll do better than most.
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Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #3,926
  • Apr 16, 2014 12:10pm Apr 16, 2014 12:10pm
Quoting Jimbaloo
{quote} There's not that many variables. If you can figure out where the US 10y gov't yield is headed you'll do better than most. {image}

Thanks Jimbaloo for the reply. I was just about to post about usdjpy correlation with yields in the US. And it looks like the yield is going down some more because of Yellen's accommodation


Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,927
  • Edited 2:47pm Apr 16, 2014 2:20pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Thanks Jimbaloo for the reply. I was just about to post about usdjpy correlation with yields in the US. And it looks like the yield is going down some more because of Yellen's accommodation Olu
Perhaps. I'm more bearish. 10y UST is at solid resistance (support in case of yields) right now. If you're bullish it's better to own actual treasuries because of higher carry (volatility adjusted ofc.) and vice versa (unless you're expecting a repricing). In the long run 10y yields should average close to nominal GDP growth rate (at least it did so before 08). Yield spreads to short-end yields are also key. I've got a lot more to say on this topic but only a very small minority on FF seems to be interested.

More consistent profits can be earned by maintaining a long-term US/Japan spread model and trade these instruments together.
Twitter - @Jimbaloo
  • #3,928
  • Edited 6:07pm Apr 16, 2014 4:47pm | Edited 6:07pm
Transports: very bullish this week, and a very different picture to the Nas and RUT.
At the close on Wednesday we have a bull reversal weekly candle on our hands. Need to check this tomorrow. A bullish engulfing would suggest we may have a monster short squeeze coming up that could take ES to north of 1900, maybe as far as 1950.
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,929
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:28pm Apr 16, 2014 5:28pm
Quoting Jimbaloo
{quote} I've got a lot more to say on this topic but only a very small minority on FF seems to be interested.
More info please. I am interested...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,930
  • Apr 16, 2014 7:38pm Apr 16, 2014 7:38pm
US dollar:

I think the mini-rally is about to turn south again.
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  • #3,931
  • Apr 16, 2014 7:52pm Apr 16, 2014 7:52pm
Sandridge Energy:

If anyone trades equities, I've been in this one for far too long but think it has some upside developing.
Weekly chart.
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  • #3,932
  • Apr 16, 2014 8:09pm Apr 16, 2014 8:09pm
Sugar:

Possible turning point higher after a 2 swing correction?
Olu is the EW expert but I might be seeing a 5 wave up followed by a 2 swing down to support @ 16.50.
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  • #3,933
  • Apr 16, 2014 8:22pm Apr 16, 2014 8:22pm
Corn:

I'll add if it gets to "buy area" or sooner if I don't have the patience :-)
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  • #3,934
  • Apr 18, 2014 6:46am Apr 18, 2014 6:46am
Transports update: ended the week with a bullish engulfing on the weekly.
Attached Image
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,935
  • Apr 18, 2014 6:48am Apr 18, 2014 6:48am
RUT: Not so good.
Attached Image
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,936
  • Apr 18, 2014 6:51am Apr 18, 2014 6:51am
SPX: A very decent reversal weekly candle to end the week, albeit on low volume.
Attached Image
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,937
  • Apr 18, 2014 11:36am Apr 18, 2014 11:36am
Quoting srt
Sugar: Possible turning point higher after a 2 swing correction? Olu is the EW expert but I might be seeing a 5 wave up followed by a 2 swing down to support @ 16.50. {image} {image}

Hi Srt

I agree with this possible count. There is another count that puts price in a triangle. I will put that chart up when I put up soon. Hope you guys are enjoying Easter

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,938
  • Apr 18, 2014 11:43am Apr 18, 2014 11:43am
Quoting Boy Wonder
SPX: A very decent reversal weekly candle to end the week, albeit on low volume. {image}

I agree BW

I read somewhere that Yellen said they might not taper so much if the figures dont support tapering. This could indicate to the markets that there might be more accommodation. The low volume might be because of hesitation by the participants. In real 'wykoff' sense low volume does not validate the upmove.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,939
  • Apr 18, 2014 6:21pm Apr 18, 2014 6:21pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I agree BW I read somewhere that Yellen said they might not taper so much if the figures dont support tapering. This could indicate to the markets that there might be more accommodation. The low volume might be because of hesitation by the participants. In real 'wykoff' sense low volume does not validate the upmove. Olu
I think it is highly unlikely that they will suspend the taper Olu. Yellen will make all kinds of dovish noises but with jobless claims where there are I just can't see a tapered taper.
The lower volume says to me that there is less participation in the move and it's a warning that it's probably not supported by the fundamentals, but I'm pretty sure we've all be trading long enough to know that that means diddly squat when you're caught short in a low volume meltup.
I was bullish at the end of last week and through this week and that paid off. I am now flat on ES because I have no clue where we go from here.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,940
  • Apr 18, 2014 6:46pm Apr 18, 2014 6:46pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think it is highly unlikely that they will suspend the taper Olu. Yellen will make all kinds of dovish noises but with jobless claims where there are I just can't see a tapered taper. The lower volume says to me that there is less participation in the move and it's a warning that it's probably not supported by the fundamentals, but I'm pretty sure we've all be trading long enough to know that that means diddly squat when you're caught short in a low volume meltup. I was bullish at the end of last week and through this week and that...
I agree BW. I think they just talked again to calm down the equity markets. They're afraid if equities fall too much it might affect the economy so easier to "talk" than to change their purchase plans. They know they can't keep purchasing forever and letting interest rates rise would be a big problem when it comes to servicing all the debt.
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