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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #13,001
  • Edited 5:22am Apr 15, 2014 5:10am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting InsiderFX
GBPJPY is a buy. From the technical viewpoint, it's quite clear. {image}
Maybe it's clear. But there is a possibility - albeit a small one - that you are actually seeing a GJ reversal in progress.
  • #13,002
  • Apr 15, 2014 5:15am Apr 15, 2014 5:15am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Maybe it's clear. But there is a possibility - albeit a small one - that you are actually seeing a GJ reversal in progress. Or am I not allowed to use the 'r' word here?
Anyone should be free to talk as he/she feels like as long as the analysis is reasonable.
  • #13,003
  • Apr 15, 2014 5:26am Apr 15, 2014 5:26am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Maybe it's clear. But there is a possibility - albeit a small one - that you are actually seeing a GJ reversal in progress. Or am I not allowed to use the 'r' word here?
Of course it's possible. We must be ready to change our shirt at any time.

But from a mid term perspective, with Japanese tax hike, it is likely that BOJ will add more stimulus weakening the yen. Of course this is still only a possibility, and will be dependant on next data releases from Japan. In my opinion that scenario is likely to happen but still the probability isn't very high, so UJ is at support. With that mid term outlook I think UJ could be cheap for big hands, specs and big funds, etc, but yet not clear to take off as there is some risk off and carry trade closing out there, with Nasdaq and SP500 falling, falling US yields, etc. So: there is no balls to sell UJ below the big 101 support, I suspect it would be quickly bought. If Japan data comes out much better than expected, and extra stimulus unneeded, then I would surely turn GJ bearish, but looking at technicals I'm more biashed to north.

Anyway that is mid term. Today we have CPI wich is high impact on USDJPY and GBPUSD, well see how Geppy reacts to this, and on what levels we trade 1-2 hours after the releases... happy NY trading!
  • #13,004
  • Apr 15, 2014 5:33am Apr 15, 2014 5:33am
Anyone paid attention to that key level (T/B/T) and the effects of orderflow if its holding?
Add: You also can see it as simple as 169.50
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  • #13,005
  • Apr 15, 2014 6:11am Apr 15, 2014 6:11am
Quoting FX-Ray
Anyone paid attention to that key level (T/B/T) and the effects of orderflow if its holding? Add: You also can see it as simple as 169.50 {image}
yes, nice spotting, however probably would have a hard time getting filled straight at the bottom.

Current M30 showing some potential for triple top @ psycho level. break above 50 invalidates.
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  • #13,006
  • Apr 15, 2014 6:13am Apr 15, 2014 6:13am
FX-Ray, I'm watching that level too. I'm anticipating a deeper drop with the GJ since it could not break through the 170.30-170.60 range on 4-11-2014, which it is testing now.
  • #13,007
  • Apr 15, 2014 6:30am Apr 15, 2014 6:30am
^_^
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  • #13,008
  • Apr 15, 2014 6:52am Apr 15, 2014 6:52am
170.40 - 170.50 area broken

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  • #13,009
  • Apr 15, 2014 2:04pm Apr 15, 2014 2:04pm
A lot of signs pointing towards a short term trend reversal on the daily chart, especially with the pin bar that formed today at a swing low day. I'm long for the 172.80 range. Loving the GBPJPY volatility, lots of profits

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  • #13,010
  • Apr 15, 2014 3:49pm Apr 15, 2014 3:49pm
Looking at a 15 minute chart starting around 1AM Eastern on April 15th one could cut and paste the last two support/resistance cycles. Pretty cool. Now, what would be even cooler is if it started a third :-)
  • #13,011
  • Apr 15, 2014 8:48pm Apr 15, 2014 8:48pm
I am not very good and am weak at picking and predicting trends or predicting announcements
out comes as others can with charting etc. I look to try to benefit from the reaction
to those announcements, trading and then taking the
educated predictions of the S/R lines as suggested here into consideration
along with the price action to make exit decisions.

It looks like we received a great bounce up to our old friend 170.
A bit of caution @ 1:15 am CST for BOJ Sparks Comments
and then again @ 3:30 am CST for GBP data. If imbalances occur,
I will trade the trend they provide one first and sell with caution to the other and repeat.
If all announcements are as mixed as last nights, I am sure
FX Ray and others would agree, the BTB wave will be coming back
for a visit tomorrow as it did today with what I hope will be smooth familiar trading opportunities.
Good luck tomorrow all...
  • #13,012
  • Apr 15, 2014 11:20pm Apr 15, 2014 11:20pm
Quoting InsiderFX
GBPJPY is a buy. From the technical viewpoint, it's quite clear. {image}
I think next short term target is 170.50 - 60 and if taken next is 173

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Trying to buy dips
  • #13,013
  • Apr 15, 2014 11:47pm Apr 15, 2014 11:47pm
gbp jpy is setting up for a massive triangle break out structure. so you have to be careful trading it at the apex levels.
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  • #13,014
  • Edited 2:57am Apr 16, 2014 12:04am | Edited 2:57am
Quoting FX-Ray
So far decision point 169.80/60 got rejected thrice which is the weekly low and halfway of both decision points @ 170.40/20 ((171.00 + 169.80) / 2) which is weekly high. Range is clear, if 170.40/20 gets taken out and show demand we should see 171.00/0.80; if 169.80/60 gets taken out next is 169.40/20 or below @ 167.20/00
Done, price above 171.00/69.80, if it holds the way is up.
  • #13,015
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:06am Apr 16, 2014 1:06am
overbought. price going vertical on no news.
  • #13,016
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:29am Apr 16, 2014 1:29am
At resistance now. Break??
  • #13,017
  • Apr 16, 2014 1:52am Apr 16, 2014 1:52am
Preparing to go long at the open of new 4H candle which is in 10 minutes time... conditions based on break above 100 ema and percing line on 4h,for a target 200 pips and stop 100 pips.

N.B Last week trade was a loss as market reverse after entering 100 pips into the target, stop loss hit.
  • #13,018
  • Apr 16, 2014 2:07am Apr 16, 2014 2:07am
pair has gone well and truly parabolic.
up 200 pips in a few hours
typical overdone news spike from GBP
  • #13,019
  • Apr 16, 2014 2:18am Apr 16, 2014 2:18am
Quoting InsiderFX
{quote} I think next short term target is 170.50 - 60 and if taken next is 173 {image} Trying to buy dips
Beware of the trend line that forms from the 2014 January and March highs, target could be in the 172.70-80 range if it is hit today or tomorrow. I locked in half profits at 178 pips on one trade and 144 on the other

Quoting Halba
overbought. price going vertical on no news.
I don't think so, there were clear signs of reversal on the daily chart which I posted earlier and the low unemployment rate coming out of Britain only confirmed the strong bulls. Stoch on daily also indicates price isn't overbought and its at 50% level and at crossover. I wouldn't think of shorting this until at least the 172.70-80 range depending on when we reach it.
  • #13,020
  • Apr 16, 2014 2:27am Apr 16, 2014 2:27am
Quoting Mpt
At resistance now. Break??
171.13. Otherwise still in a correction. ( probably an expanding triangle )
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