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NZD/USD

  • #4,621
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:55pm Apr 14, 2014 1:55pm
I agree with Davit. Since EUR accounts for a weight of 56.7% of Dollar Index, QE in the EU would inevtably force dollar buying hence driving NU lower. Just a matter of money flows. Anyway, I think this does not change NZD mid term bias
  • #4,622
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:56pm Apr 14, 2014 1:56pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} hmmm both starting from below and both going up I may be forced to put you on ignore list wasting my time on obvious.
whatever works for you, yous prolly the only one who thinks it's correlated.
  • #4,623
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:58pm Apr 14, 2014 1:58pm
Quoting InsiderFX
I agree with Davit. Since EUR accounts for a weight of 56.7% of Dollar Index, QE in the EU would inevtably force dollar buying hence driving NU lower. Just a matter of money flows. Anyway, I think this does not change NZD mid term bias
NU will not be trading below 8600-8650 near-term, until it hits solid resistance @ 8800-8900.
  • #4,624
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:02pm Apr 14, 2014 2:02pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} NU will not be trading below 8600-8650 near-term, until it hits solid resistance @ 8800-8900.
How do you know that, do you have RBNZ's Governor Wheeler on the phone telling you about his monetary policy plans? It would be great if you share whatever he tells you with FF folks...

Seems like you are new here. FX markets teach you from the very start to never say "will not be trading below/over", or "that won't happen under any circumtances". The market doesn't care of your positions bro...
  • #4,625
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:06pm Apr 14, 2014 2:06pm
Quoting InsiderFX
{quote} How do you know that, do you have RBNZ's Governor Wheeler on the phone telling you about his monetary policy plans? Seems you are new here. FX markets teach you from the very start to never say "will not be trading below/over". The market doesn't care of your positions.
I trade technicals, I don't need governors on the phone to position myself in FX.

If you look back in the thread I posted my analysis and review multiple times. What did you contribute yourself then?

I've been with the markets since 2002, and on the Forums since Moneytec, this name probably will not ring any bells for you. It all started with Moneytec.
  • #4,626
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:08pm Apr 14, 2014 2:08pm
Davit, you'd be happy to find out that I also put you on my ignore list as well. You overestimate your trading skills.
  • #4,627
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:10pm Apr 14, 2014 2:10pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} hmmm both starting from below and both going up I may be forced to put you on ignore list (EDIT DONE) wasting my time on obvious.
he is just spamming thread... Closed some shorts, from my technical side, it's forming a wedge to go higher. But in long run I am short. And will go more, it is one of thse opportunities to go in huge profit, but patience.
  • #4,628
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:10pm Apr 14, 2014 2:10pm
the period in question has seen rising money market yields in the eurozone and new zealand... and dollar weakness.


its not a "correlation", they're both dollar pairs driven by the same dynamic until the ECB or RBNZ goes in a different direction.


Look at what happen in later 2011 with the LTROS. Eurozone banks take the money and do carry trades. If NZDUSD drops its going to be on USD strength not simply because the EUR is falling and they correlated.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #4,629
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:36pm Apr 14, 2014 2:36pm
Quoting Citiboy
the period in question has seen rising money market yields in the eurozone and new zealand... and dollar weakness. its not a "correlation", they're both dollar pairs driven by the same dynamic until the ECB or RBNZ goes in a different direction. Look at what happen in later 2011 with the LTROS. Eurozone banks take the money and do carry trades. If NZDUSD drops its going to be on USD strength not simply because the EUR is falling and they correlated.
Citi agree in part with you. In Q4 2013 USD was rallying, EU reacted, however NU failed to react and just trader sideways.
My point being failry simple - NU/AU is more of commod currencies, so they tie in closely to price movements of gold, for instance.
With safeheaven demand growing due to instability UKR/RUS, AU/NU will go higher yet, higher AU/NU will be supported by stronger gold
prices.

So long gold is trading above 1315-20 area, AU and NU will keep trading higher. NU/Gold correlation tend to be volatile, however currently strong @ 80%.
  • #4,630
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:38pm Apr 14, 2014 2:38pm
Davit you are right eurusd 1.3680 will take nzdusd to 0.8520 area again.USDX will gain most if eurx starting to loose strength..
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #4,631
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:46pm Apr 14, 2014 2:46pm
Ok, I wish you guys did a reality check with Davit. He's the one who shorted NUs from 8500 and is down 40% on his equity currently.
The higher NU went, the more confident he get's that the pullback is eminent. Wishfull thinking, at it's best.

Now what's amazing is that you get dragged into that short selling NU myth along with him, that's just out of it stuff.
  • #4,632
  • Apr 14, 2014 2:58pm Apr 14, 2014 2:58pm
Quoting ruffryders
Ok, I wish you guys did a reality check with Davit. He's the one who shorted NUs from 8500 and is down 40% on his equity currently. The higher NU went, the more confident he get's that the pullback is eminent. Wishfull thinking, at it's best. Now what's amazing is that you get dragged into that short selling NU myth along with him, that's just out of it stuff.
i am long term trader and it will go down anyways.i dont care if she moves 100pip further up(if she does its better for me). I have no doubts and i got my trading plan and i will stick with it. Why do we need reality check? Do it yourself. NZD is small country and thats the reason why strong currency will hurt its economy more then others..Just wait
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #4,633
  • Edited 4:19pm Apr 14, 2014 4:01pm | Edited 4:19pm
last two daily bar seem so dangerious for bears. same outlook eur nzd.

edit. wednesday there is nzd cpi data release. so important for currency. maybe bulls force price to meet at resistence while data anouncement.

http://www.forexfactory.com/index.ph...16.2014#closed


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  • #4,634
  • Apr 14, 2014 4:40pm Apr 14, 2014 4:40pm
Drop this pair straight to hell
  • #4,635
  • Apr 14, 2014 4:46pm Apr 14, 2014 4:46pm
Quoting strat1x
Drop this pair straight to hell
Will do
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #4,636
  • Apr 14, 2014 4:53pm Apr 14, 2014 4:53pm
Quoting P.Action
last two daily bar seem so dangerious for bears.
could you please explain this a bit? why is it dangerous?

personally, i would look at it as a nice position building at expense of late bulls (at long term market top)...shooting star and 2 hanging mans candlesticks on resistance like that...looks like almost a must to short it (regardless of the outcome). i'm definitely looking for shorts on this one...
big numbers are our friends...
  • #4,637
  • Apr 14, 2014 4:54pm Apr 14, 2014 4:54pm
SOC-GEN bullish on NZD, read here.

https://publication.sgresearch.com/e...e01f589192e636
  • #4,638
  • Apr 14, 2014 5:02pm Apr 14, 2014 5:02pm
Quoting deeZG
{quote} could you please explain this a bit? why is it dangerous? personally, i would look at it as a nice position building at expense of late bulls (at long term market top)...shooting star and 2 hanging mans candlesticks on resistance like that...looks like almost a must to short it (regardless of the outcome). i'm definitely looking for shorts on this one...
Wait & see how that works for you on Thursday 24 April 2014

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #4,639
  • Apr 14, 2014 5:10pm Apr 14, 2014 5:10pm
Quoting deeZG
{quote} could you please explain this a bit? why is it dangerous? personally, i would look at it as a nice position building at expense of late bulls (at long term market top)...shooting star and 2 hanging mans candlesticks on resistance like that...looks like almost a must to short it (regardless of the outcome). i'm definitely looking for shorts on this one...
i comment that recent two bar closed. with long shadow. if i try to enter short i would catch nearly 8740 level. not close levels.

on the other hand. (only imagine)

audnzd resistence 1.0900 acoording to my outlook
aud usd resistence 0.9580 acoording to my outlook

if two level occurs at same time in this month. nzd/usd = 0.9580 / 1.09 = 0.8790
maybe this month's high will be 0.8790. i said this is imaginary. but i believe slightly.

good luck for your trades.
  • #4,640
  • Apr 14, 2014 5:22pm Apr 14, 2014 5:22pm
Quoting P.Action
{quote} i comment that recent two bar closed. with long shadow. if i try to enter short i would catch nearly 8740 level. not close levels. on the other hand. (only imagine) audnzd resistence 1.0900 acoording to my outlook aud usd resistence 0.9580 acoording to my outlook if two level occurs at same time in this month. nzd/usd = 0.9580 / 1.09 = 0.8790 maybe this month's high will be 0.8790. i said this is imaginary. but i believe slightly. good luck for your trades.
thanks for the explanation!
big numbers are our friends...
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