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NZD/USD

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NZD/USD

  • #4,601
  • Edited 5:33am Apr 14, 2014 4:58am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting egkid
{quote} I sell@8650 ,possible Target 8620
80 min PA mesmerize@ 8650 What a luck
ok out@BE ,Don't like the delay
  • #4,602
  • Apr 14, 2014 6:22am Apr 14, 2014 6:22am
Quoting egkid
{quote} 80 min PA mesmerize@ 8650 What a luck ok out@BE ,Don't like the delay
I'm having a short @ 0.8647, not much happening. If BE hits...i'm thinking about jumping out aswell
A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need advice
  • #4,603
  • Apr 14, 2014 7:11am Apr 14, 2014 7:11am
I also went short expecting lower target
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  • #4,604
  • Apr 14, 2014 7:53am Apr 14, 2014 7:53am
Quoting whitescalper
I also went short expecting lower target {image}
More like this I think:
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #4,605
  • Apr 14, 2014 9:42am Apr 14, 2014 9:42am
Could someone hit that bitch down? She is supposed to go down!
A word to the wise ain't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need advice
  • #4,606
  • Apr 14, 2014 10:00am Apr 14, 2014 10:00am
Quoting Nocturnes
Could someone hit that bitch down? She is supposed to go down!
I thought I read something about the RBZ might be raising its rate soon, if that is true then I wouldn't expect it to go down for very long.
  • #4,607
  • Apr 14, 2014 10:06am Apr 14, 2014 10:06am
Quoting whitescalper
I also went short expecting lower target {image}
Nice Head and Shoulders pattern there!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #4,608
  • Apr 14, 2014 11:48am Apr 14, 2014 11:48am
Quoting dbutton1990
{quote} Nice Head and Shoulders pattern there!
Yes, i m very positive on this trade waiting for the market to move in my favour
  • #4,609
  • Apr 14, 2014 11:56am Apr 14, 2014 11:56am
SO the US data has been good for the last 2 releases and nothing... This smells.
  • #4,610
  • Apr 14, 2014 12:02pm Apr 14, 2014 12:02pm
Quoting eqshack
my 9 lots still running from 0.8740 area.. enjoying this move.I will hold it few weeks more..targeting 0.8390-8440 really ill decide if i hold it longer or not @ 16.april..this is when we get important NZD data 4hour close under 0.86457 will confirm strong down-move and we should continue this move towards 0.8530 with babysteps.. Strongest support should be around 0.8565-70 {image}
I am short as well and regret having a big position.Resilience of NU is starting to cause concern.Mainly at April 23 expected another .25 IR hike making this highest IR currency.
I am little perplex on this. 30% of NZ economy is related to milk products exports and having high currency surely will hurt but same time NZ is confident on continued IR raises.
Just baffling to me. I think we may see new era on NU above 86.I could be wrong but if They raise at 23th I don't see how that will bring this down unless they wont....but according to what I have been reading 97% chance they will...
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,611
  • Apr 14, 2014 12:25pm Apr 14, 2014 12:25pm
Found some positive for shorts....
http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...effective-pull

Excellent in-debt analyses

"If the divergence between the NZD/USD and WMP prices continues over the next 10 days to the RBNZ OCR review on 24 April, Governor Wheeler should consider a surprise “no change” to the OCR as the markets fully expect another 0.25% OCR increase.

"Wholemilk Powder (WMP) prices have plummeted over the past month by 20% from their record highs of USD5,000/MT to USD4,000/MT at the last Fonterra/GDT auction two weeks ago. Historically there is a greater than 70% correlation between WMP and the NZD/USD exchange rate."

Article mention further milk price drop since China boasted its own local production and their warehouses are full of dry milk.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,612
  • Apr 14, 2014 12:29pm Apr 14, 2014 12:29pm
Quoting Davit
Found some positive for shorts.... http://www.interest.co.nz/currencies...effective-pull Excellent in-debt analyses "If the divergence between the NZD/USD and WMP prices continues over the next 10 days to the RBNZ OCR review on 24 April, Governor Wheeler should consider a surprise “no change” to the OCR as the markets fully expect another 0.25% OCR increase. Article mention further milk price drop since China boasted its own local production and their warehouses...
just wrote something on this. The amount of rate hikes priced in from the RBNZ is pretty aggressive, and it hasnt changed very much even as the chinese data has slowed down. they can still hike rates, all they need to do is let the markets know that pricing in 100bps+ of hikes is a bit over the top.

http://trendersgame.com/2014/04/14/a...turning-point/
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #4,613
  • Apr 14, 2014 12:57pm Apr 14, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} just wrote something on this. The amount of rate hikes priced in from the RBNZ is pretty aggressive, and it hasnt changed very much even as the chinese data has slowed down. they can still hike rates, all they need to do is let the markets know that pricing in 100bps+ of hikes is a bit over the top. http://trendersgame.com/2014/04/14/a...turning-point/
Thanks for your input
Another way for NU to drop is ECB decision of stimuli.
If Euro hits 37 going 36 we can anticipate 85 to be hit which is my TP
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,614
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:05pm Apr 14, 2014 1:05pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks for your input Another way for NU to drop is ECB decision of stimuli. If Euro hits 37 going 36 we can anticipate 85 to be hit which is my TP
ecb stimulus bearish for nzd?

id think players would do carry trades sell eur and buy higher yielders
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #4,615
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:18pm Apr 14, 2014 1:18pm
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} ecb stimulus bearish for nzd? id think players would do carry trades sell eur and buy higher yielders
65% correlation hence 36EU roughly equals 85NU
Eur/USD exchange sets the tone.USD gain on EU strengthens USD on all majors.This is just my view from observation of correlations.We basically trade EU even if you are trading other majors.I think of EUR/USD as FX barometer effects all majors

Great site on live data
http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,616
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:39pm Apr 14, 2014 1:39pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} 65% correlation hence 36EU roughly equals 85NU Eur/USD exchange sets the tone.USD gain on EU strengthens USD on all majors.This is just my view from observation of correlations.We basically trade EU even if you are trading other majors.I think of EUR/USD as FX barometer effects all majors Great site on live data http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation
Davit EU is not a barometer to measure NU. Here's the mothly correlation chart from the source you quoted. Simply put EU can go down, and NU can go up, and it happened in the past before.
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  • #4,617
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:45pm Apr 14, 2014 1:45pm
risk on / risk off is pretty much dead. id throw out all the correlations we've come to depend on for the past 5 years as we get closer to central bank policies going in different directions.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #4,618
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:46pm Apr 14, 2014 1:46pm
looking at W1 of EU and NU, I don't spot that much of a correlation.
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  • #4,619
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:51pm Apr 14, 2014 1:51pm
Quoting ruffryders
{quote} Davit EU is not a barometer to measure NU. Here's the mothly correlation chart from the source you quoted. Simply put EU can go down, and NU can go up, and it happened in the past before. {image}
65% positive correlation.Its good enough for me.To me its obvious.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,620
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:53pm Apr 14, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting ruffryders
looking at W1 of EU and NU, I don't spot that much of a correlation. {image}
hmmm both starting from below and both going up

I may be forced to put you on ignore list (EDIT DONE)
wasting my time on obvious.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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