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Trading Without a StopLoss

  • #1,801
  • Apr 13, 2014 10:17pm Apr 13, 2014 10:17pm
Quoting freundr
jmn5611 and Rap Skallion: when you say 60+ positions going at the same time, does that include multiple trades in the same pair or all separate and distinct pairs ? Also curious with that many positions, what % of capital do you guys put in each trade ?

I trade one penny per 1000 dollars. There are multiple trades in the same pairs as well as separate and distinct pairs. I have cut my pairs down to ten.

EURUSD USDCHF
EURCAD CADCHF
EURGBP GBPCHF
EURAUD AUDCHF
EURNZD NZDCHF

I trade with the swap only.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,802
  • Apr 14, 2014 9:13am Apr 14, 2014 9:13am
Thanks for the information jmn...
  • #1,803
  • Apr 15, 2014 7:56am Apr 15, 2014 7:56am
Quoting johnvr
What you need to do when you don't trade with a stop loss is the same as what you must do when an elephant is charging you, sit down on the ground, put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye.
Trading without a stop loss is like inviting a lion for a fight, there is no way you can trade without setting the stop loss and make a better profit at the end of the day.
  • #1,804
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:13am Apr 15, 2014 9:13am
Quoting blesssing23
{quote} Trading without a stop loss is like inviting a lion for a fight, there is no way you can trade without setting the stop loss and make a better profit at the end of the day.
Yes there is.
  • #1,805
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:41am Apr 15, 2014 9:41am
Quoting freundr
jmn5611 and Rap Skallion: when you say 60+ positions going at the same time, does that include multiple trades in the same pair or all separate and distinct pairs ? Also curious with that many positions, what % of capital do you guys put in each trade ?
That includes multiple trades in the same pair:
That does mean I double down when price goes against me. It means when price is going for me, and I feel it is likely to keep doing so , I put in another trade( assuming I have the equity, and no other trade out there is more attractive).

I too, no longer trade against the swap. To me negative swap is an indicator that the long run profitably of such trades are questionable.
I use the formula .02 lots per thousand balance, plus one. This is as high as I dare go.

Right now I have 64 trades going among 19 windows. If anything, I am leaning in jmn5611's direction.
  • #1,806
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:51am Apr 15, 2014 9:51am
Quoting Bilstein
{quote} Yes there is.
They keep trying don't they?

There are many ways you can trade without a fixed stop loss and make a greater profit at the end of the day.
There are many ways you can trade yourself out of business using a fixed stop loss.

By my experience, it is better to be more flexible in your actions than to commit yourself to an action just because market price reaches a certain level.

The question to focus on is not where it is now, but where is it going next.

Look at our join dates. Look at your own. Doesn't that give you pause?
  • #1,807
  • Apr 15, 2014 10:49am Apr 15, 2014 10:49am
Rap, thanks for the reply. What does the plus one refer to in addition to the .02 lots ?
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} That includes multiple trades in the same pair: That does mean I double down when price goes against me. It means when price is going for me, and I feel it is likely to keep doing so , I put in another trade( assuming I have the equity, and no other trade out there is more attractive). I too, no longer trade against the swap. To me negative swap is an indicator that the long run profitably of such trades are questionable. I use the formula .02 lots per thousand balance, plus one. This is as high as I dare go. Right now I have 64 trades going...
  • #1,808
  • Apr 15, 2014 10:58am Apr 15, 2014 10:58am
It isn't that trading without stop losses is the only way to trade, just that it is definitely possible to make money doing it. I think well capitalized traders and experienced around here are more the kinda guys who are picking highs and lows, trading large lot sizes in one pair so naturally, they're not turned on by trading without stop losses as they could suffer heavy losses in intraday fluctuations. Your "little fish" is just afraid of losing money. They're betting $1,000 (or less) that they can quit their full-time jobs with Forex in a month. They're trying to trade minuscule time frames with 10-point stop losses. They're so used to being stopped out that trading without a stop loss is madness to them. They're the kind of people who'd spend $5,000 learning to trade only to actually wager $1,000 (or less) on the market. They're more obsessed about being right or wrong than they are about making money. There's a million different ways to trade. Trading 26 pairs without stop losses is definitely one of them. But you have to be well-capitalized or trade conservative lot sizes in order to do it and I'll bet there's more people on any given Forex forum who are neither than there are people who are both or hell, even one of the two.
  • #1,809
  • Apr 15, 2014 3:42pm Apr 15, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting Bilstein
It isn't that trading without stop losses is the only way to trade, just that it is definitely possible to make money doing it. I think well capitalized traders and experienced around here are more the kinda guys who are picking highs and lows, trading large lot sizes in one pair so naturally, they're not turned on by trading without stop losses as they could suffer heavy losses in intraday fluctuations. Your "little fish" is just afraid of losing money. They're betting $1,000 (or less) that they can quit their full-time jobs with Forex in a month....
I wonder if the downside to trading without a stop loss is the fact that you must trade much smaller lot sizes? Have you ever run two accounts with the same trade triggers but with different MM?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,810
  • Apr 15, 2014 4:37pm Apr 15, 2014 4:37pm
You do have to trade smaller lot sizes. But "smaller" is relative to how much capital you have. For some, "smaller" may mean 1K lots all the way up to 100K+ lots. That's why under-capitalized traders can't trade without stop losses. Personally, I've never ran two accounts. I've been running the same one for almost a decade. I figure running two accounts might be outside of my "attention span" - heh. I have altered risk management strategies several times throughout the time I've been managing this account, though.

Another point, under-capitalized traders have the tendency to be far more emotional about their money, especially as pertains to unrealized losses. When I first started trading this way, I had to learn not to bail out when the market gets hot because bailing out early typically results in more realized losses. Since I cycle my inventory daily (at the open) I'm realistically only subject to whatever change there is on any given pair - for the day - I'm holding. I could be holding 10 trades that are up on the day and 15 that are down but at the end of the day, I book all of my gains (adds to equity) and book a one smaller loss relative to the gains I took. If I can pull $1,200 in gains out of the market in a day and bail on $350 in lost trades, I'm still doing well. Do this all year long, and it isn't as nightmarish as it sounds.

I'm always shuffling inventory; switching biases based on any technical or fundamental information. Technically speaking (charts) I'm really only watching closing prices around major 1,000 point intervals, minor 250 point intervals, and general trend direction. But if you're going to trade this way, it helps greatly to be well-funded and to trade in lot sizes that are proportional to your account size. Essentially, lot sizes that are small enough that wicked fluctuations in the market won't tear your drawdown level to pieces. Just because you can trade 500K lots doesn't mean you should.
  • #1,811
  • Apr 15, 2014 8:40pm Apr 15, 2014 8:40pm
Bilstein, you book your profit and at the same time each day regardless of the amount ? No preset profit targets or amounts ? and you close all or some of your losing positions ?
  • #1,812
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:12pm Apr 15, 2014 9:12pm
I book all profits, yes. The only way I've ever booked all my losses is if my gains for the day offset my losses by at least 2-to-1. That doesn't happen very often though sometimes, you get lucky. Every day I'll book a at least a single loss and either re-position or switch positions on the pair. Doing so keeps inventory from going haywire against me in a given period of days. Since I trade - for the most part - with the swap, every day my balance/equity increases a little just by the swap alone. On top of that, I book profits on "x" number of trades a day as well. Every gain I book means I can handle a little more risk.

The interesting thing about using your capital as an indicator is you develop a good sense of when a trade has "gone too far" and isn't going to bounce back anytime soon.

Edit: Oh yes, at the same time every day. Generally speaking. If my personal schedule is a little squiffy, I may do it earlier (before 8PM EST) but I try never to do it later than 8PM. Sorry, forgot to throw that in there.
  • #1,813
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:27pm Apr 15, 2014 9:27pm
Thanks for the information and the edit Bilstein.
  • #1,814
  • Apr 15, 2014 10:48pm Apr 15, 2014 10:48pm
Quoting freundr
Rap, thanks for the reply. What does the plus one refer to in addition to the .02 lots ? {quote}
If you have a 4000$ balance, your trade .09 lots. That is as large as I dare go. If I get into trouble with that size, I will go smaller. I am largely in accord with Bilstein, and he trades with a lower percentage. You can make good money trading many small trades, without the stress of your one big trade going bad.

While I was not planning on this, I find myself closing a bad trade pretty nearly every day. For me decision time is around 5pm est, that's the rollover time for my broker.
The other time I am always at the screen is at 8am est., preparing as best I can for the beginning of the New York session. I live in Pennsylvania in the same time zone.

I visit at other times, probably more than I should.
  • #1,815
  • Apr 16, 2014 5:15am Apr 16, 2014 5:15am
Hi,

Why can't you go through with alternative???

There is a nice alternative, and it's not so new. What is new, is the ability for even small investors to use it in their trading. Forex Options are a better safety net than stop losses. Until last year, we small investors couldn't use them, or at least not easily. However, last year foreign currency options were listed for several major currency pairs, such as the ISE World Currency Options. You can trade these right now with your existing stock broker. A list of their symbols appears at the bottom of this article.

The options work the same as a Stop-Loss, by protecting your position from excessive losses, but is limited by time. It does not close your position when a set price is hit, but it protects you. You have time to wait for a market reversal. If no reversal comes, you take the loss, same as with a stop-loss. If a reversal does come, you now can enjoy the profit.
  • #1,816
  • Apr 16, 2014 9:49am Apr 16, 2014 9:49am
[quote=Rap Skallion;7408919]{quote} If you have a 4000$ balance, your trade .09 lots. That is as large as I dare go. If I get into trouble with that size, I will go smaller. I am largely in accord with Bilstein, and he trades with a lower percentage. You can make good money trading many small trades, without the stress of your one big trade going bad.

Thanks Rap..
  • #1,817
  • Apr 21, 2014 4:34pm Apr 21, 2014 4:34pm
Quoting Rap Skallion
{file} I submit that you, being a reasonable person, would find it hard put to make a system based upon the understandings contained in the document above, and not find a way to make it profitable.
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx Part 1.docx   18 KB | 493 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx Part two_The five methods.docx   318 KB | 561 downloads


along with my idea of the shape of the forex in part one: which I posted earlier, and have made a slight addition to, I have posted Part two: the five methods. I use these to employ my ideas into actual trade.

I do not see how a person can employ these ideas and methods in a reasonable fashion and not be able to make good money on the forex.
regards,
  • #1,818
  • Apr 28, 2014 5:23am Apr 28, 2014 5:23am
Quoting Rap Skallion
{quote} {file}{file} along with my idea of the shape of the forex in part one: which I posted earlier, and have made a slight addition to, I have posted Part two: the five methods. I use these to employ my ideas into actual trade. I do not see how a person can employ these ideas and methods in a reasonable fashion and not be able to make good money on the forex. regards,
Anybody who downloaded these files, and followed them on their demos, might be dissappointed in the less than spectacular results achived so far.

Two days prior to this I only garnered 35 pips, as the market did what amounted to a perfect storm against almost all my pairs.

Today , 6pm, est., I have more than doubled that though, and am on my way to very good day. You should be, too.

Don't let the simplicity of the techniques fool you. The breadth of windows allows you to find profitable trades somewhere. None of this is radical, except perhaps the number of pairs one trades, and the use of other money management tools than fixed stop loss.
  • #1,819
  • Apr 29, 2014 6:08am Apr 29, 2014 6:08am
I guess all beginners tried trading without stop loss for a while thinking that if it doesnt exist it will never be hit I did so myself 10 years ago. However, to get a sl hit is much better that to get your balance wiped out
  • #1,820
  • Apr 29, 2014 8:57am Apr 29, 2014 8:57am
Quoting Ronald
I guess all beginners tried trading without stop loss for a while thinking that if it doesnt exist it will never be hit I did so myself 10 years ago. However, to get a sl hit is much better that to get your balance wiped out
If a bad trade with no stop loss can wipe out your balance, then you don't have enough money.
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