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  • #3,901
  • Apr 14, 2014 7:42am Apr 14, 2014 7:42am
Quoting Boy Wonder
A/N: 1. broke the bear trendline that has lasted for a YEAR on 10th April last week 2. is above the 20, 50 and 100 3. decent bull candle so far today. So, no sign of a reversal as yet but hey this is trading, anything can happen. {image}
I agree anything can happen but I am only looking long till the markets say ototherwise

olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,902
  • Apr 14, 2014 8:23am Apr 14, 2014 8:23am
Quoting Boy Wonder
FXI: A failed probe above the 100 week MA. Worth watching for a successful retest and hold. {image}
don't mind
what is fxi?

thanks
  • #3,903
  • Apr 14, 2014 8:29am Apr 14, 2014 8:29am
Quoting Olu
{quote} It is puzzling me too.For the euraud to continue down there has to be one of the the following scenario aud strengthens and eur weakens (biggest move) aud stays the same and the eur weakens aud weakens but the eur weakens more aud strengthen and the eur strength less one can substitute this scenario for all aud pairs. I am expecting the euraud to retrace a bit before a selloff begins. This week could be a funny one to start because of some large move seen last week in the stock markets Olu
Olu & Vox

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post7404378

Made a short on EUD/AUD based on PA, on Daily & H4 today.
Already BE her.
Let see she can make it further south or not.

p. s. imho - EUR is seen weak today and AUD is just a mild strong.

Cheers
  • #3,904
  • Apr 14, 2014 8:31am Apr 14, 2014 8:31am
Quoting tlpfx14
{quote} Olu & Vox http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...78#post7404378 Made a short on EUD/AUD based on PA, on Daily & H4 today. Already BE her. Let see she can make it further south or not. p. s. imho - EUR is seen weak today and AUD is just a mild strong. Cheers
Well done on the trade TlpFx. I was looking for a retracement before selling. It didnt happen (or hasnt happened so far)

olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,905
  • Apr 14, 2014 9:00am Apr 14, 2014 9:00am
EurAud

Well done to those who are short this pair.

This chart is what is on my mind now as I might have missed the initial sell. We could still get the retracement though...
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,906
  • Apr 14, 2014 10:29am Apr 14, 2014 10:29am
Quoting Olu
{quote} It is puzzling me too.For the euraud to continue down there has to be one of the the following scenario aud strengthens and eur weakens (biggest move) aud stays the same and the eur weakens aud weakens but the eur weakens more aud strengthen and the eur strength less one can substitute this scenario for all aud pairs. I am expecting the euraud to retrace a bit before a selloff begins. This week could be a funny one to start because of some large move seen last week in the stock markets Olu
Thanks for your thoughts, Olu.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #3,907
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:16pm Apr 14, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I agree anything can happen but I am only looking long till the markets say ototherwise olu
Me too.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,908
  • Apr 14, 2014 1:23pm Apr 14, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting Olu
EurAud Well done to those who are short this pair. This chart is what is on my mind now as I might have missed the initial sell. We could still get the retracement though... {image}
I think it's good to get a "don't care" position on E/A i.e. just enough to get you in the game but not so large that you'll freak if there's a large countertrend spike. That also allows you to take advantage of such a spike by selling into it rather than freaking out and bailing.
After having regrettably closed an underwater long last week I am back in with a small short on E/A because the technical picture for me is unambiguous. I would welcome a spike higher as an opportunity to get shorter. Good strong consecutive closes back above the 200dma would suggest the picture might have changed.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,909
  • Apr 14, 2014 3:41pm Apr 14, 2014 3:41pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think it's good to get a "don't care" position on E/A i.e. just enough to get you in the game but not so large that you'll freak if there's a large countertrend spike. That also allows you to take advantage of such a spike by selling into it rather than freaking out and bailing. After having regrettably closed an underwater long last week I am back in with a small short on E/A because the technical picture for me is unambiguous. I would welcome a spike higher as an opportunity to get shorter. Good strong consecutive closes back above the...

Now that is another way to trade this pair without fear of massive spikes. Sell anyway with a much smaller trade size and when the market is un-equivocal about its intention to go down e.g breaking the channel to the downside one can then add the rest of the trade size. I hear you BW. Thanks

In a way BW you have uncovered another great aspect of trading. If we cant trade with a 'dont care ' attitude (and I am not talking about flipping a coin instead of doing good analysis) our trade size/risk might be too large or the fear/greed emotion has set in . What this leads to is trying to nail the absolute turn in the market to a 20 pip stop instead of a smaller size with a bigger stop that takes the ATR of the pair or chart structures into consideration.

I put my hands up I have done it many times...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,910
  • Apr 14, 2014 3:59pm Apr 14, 2014 3:59pm
EurCad - shorter term
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,911
  • Apr 14, 2014 4:20pm Apr 14, 2014 4:20pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Now that is another way to trade this pair without fear of massive spikes. Sell anyway with a much smaller trade size and when the market is un-equivocal about its intention to go down e.g breaking the channel to the downside one can then add the rest of the trade size. I hear you BW. Thanks In a way BW you have uncovered another great aspect of trading. If we cant trade with a 'dont care ' attitude (and I am not talking about flipping a coin instead of doing good analysis) our trade size/risk might be too large or the fear/greed emotion...
Absolutely mate, me too. I found out only recently that money management and position management is thought to be maybe 70%+ of trading success, and MM/PM + psychology is about 90%. Definitely, those are things that I'm trying hard to work on myself.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,912
  • Apr 15, 2014 6:58am Apr 15, 2014 6:58am
Crude Oil
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,913
  • Apr 15, 2014 8:26am Apr 15, 2014 8:26am
Quoting Olu
EurCad - shorter term {image}

Update to post 3910
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,914
  • Apr 15, 2014 8:58am Apr 15, 2014 8:58am
Hi Olu,
do you still think the crude oil will tank? there was a sudden burst to the north?

Quoting Olu
Crude Oil {image}
  • #3,915
  • Apr 15, 2014 9:16am Apr 15, 2014 9:16am
July Coffee
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,916
  • Apr 15, 2014 2:25pm Apr 15, 2014 2:25pm
Quoting Olu
Crude Oil {image}
Hi Olu
Are you aware that the 105 high that is on that chart doesn't exist on the current front month contract?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,917
  • Apr 15, 2014 2:29pm Apr 15, 2014 2:29pm
I would rather short into a massive blow off top on crude. We haven't see that so I half suspect they could continue to ramp it up.
There is a new massive pipeline that is rapidly sucking inventory out of Cushing I think that could be responsible for the bullishness in WTIC.
Something to be wary of.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,918
  • Apr 15, 2014 2:51pm Apr 15, 2014 2:51pm
E/J:

Suggests either eur/usd or usd/jpy (or both) are going to go higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #3,919
  • Apr 15, 2014 4:31pm Apr 15, 2014 4:31pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Hi Olu Are you aware that the 105 high that is on that chart doesn't exist on the current front month contract? {image}

Hi BW

Yes I am aware of this. The 105 high is the high on the cash crude chart. I just to keep to this chart to keep things constant

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #3,920
  • Apr 15, 2014 4:32pm Apr 15, 2014 4:32pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
I would rather short into a massive blow off top on crude. We haven't see that so I half suspect they could continue to ramp it up. There is a new massive pipeline that is rapidly sucking inventory out of Cushing I think that could be responsible for the bullishness in WTIC. Something to be wary of.

add the ukraine issue to the fray as well. This sucker is just not ready to tank


Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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